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Home » Forums » Questions and Answers » Math » Which is more likely after a 7? Need you to show me the math
Which is more likely after a 7? Need you to show me the math
| April 18th, 2011 at 2:13:27 PM permalink | |
| kwalter827 Member since: Apr 12, 2011 Threads: 2 Posts: 8 | Doc Thanks so much for that help. (And yes, $7 is the win. My bad, I usually play $10 tables.) Your analysis makes sense. And yes, I don't care if it's a six or eight right after the seven and then can't be a six or eight until the next seven. Keith |
| April 18th, 2011 at 2:16:03 PM permalink | |
| kwalter827 Member since: Apr 12, 2011 Threads: 2 Posts: 8 | I think you posted this just as I was clarify. Thanks to you as well. Same answer as DOC. Much appreciated. Keith |
| April 18th, 2011 at 2:16:21 PM permalink | |
| teddys Member since: Nov 14, 2009 Threads: 100 Posts: 2725 | Your friend is impatient. Since the seven is the most likely number to come up, he should best the pass line for the best chance to win. Betting the 6 / 8 for $6 each won't give you the best chance. On the pass line, you have 244 ways to win, and 251 ways to lose. On the 6/8, you have 5 ways to win, and 6 ways to lose. The pass line is better. Splitting it between the 6 and 8 won't make a difference on the overall bet, but will lower variance. It's just close enough for it to make a minuscule difference in the long run. But in the real world -- not so much. I would have fun with it. He bets his way, you bet the other way, and see who comes out ahead more often. "If you can make one heap of all your winnings / And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss / And lose, and start again at your beginnings / And never breathe a word about your loss..." -Rudyard Kipling |
| April 18th, 2011 at 2:20:31 PM permalink | |
| MonkeyF0cker Member since: Apr 18, 2011 Threads: 0 Posts: 2 |
The timing of placing a -EV wager is inconsequential. In the long run, you're going to lose money regardless. Essentially, what you're asking is whether a place bet of the 6 or 8 is better than a pass line bet. The house advantage of a 6 or 8 place bet is 1.52%. For a pass line wager (without odds), it's 1.41%. The pass line bet is the better wager, especially when you back it up with odds after the point is established. |
| April 18th, 2011 at 2:23:31 PM permalink | |
| SOOPOO Member since: Aug 8, 2010 Threads: 49 Posts: 1324 | kwalter, an easy way to look at what is happening is to analyze each bet individually. The come out roll, before you roll it, has a house edge of 1.4% or so. A $ 6 bet on 6 or 8 should pay $7.20, but only pays $7, so it has a house edge of 1.5% or so. Any combination of bets that over time will tend to lose, will tend to lose. If you can understand the math behind why each single bet favors the house, then you should also be able to figure out that combining a bunch of bets that favor the house will never turn the odds in your favor. |
| April 18th, 2011 at 4:38:36 PM permalink | |
| kwalter827 Member since: Apr 12, 2011 Threads: 2 Posts: 8 | It's actually 10 ways to win vs 6 to lose. If he wins either the 6 or 8 and then takes both down. He loses if two sevens come up with no 6 or 8 between. He can take his place bets down after a win. I have to leave my pass line bet out and hope the same 6 or 8 comes out again... Still house always wins... |
| April 18th, 2011 at 5:06:11 PM permalink | |
| teddys Member since: Nov 14, 2009 Threads: 100 Posts: 2725 | True, but he is only betting $6 on six and eight, which is half of what you're betting (approx.), so really he'd have to hit twice to match what you make (more or less). "If you can make one heap of all your winnings / And risk it on one turn of pitch-and-toss / And lose, and start again at your beginnings / And never breathe a word about your loss..." -Rudyard Kipling |
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