 | Bovada is the only Internet casino endorsed by the Wizard. Here are my reasons why and my promise of support. |
Home » Forums » Questions and Answers » Math » Calculating Return for "Lock & Roll" 5X Pay Quarter Machine
Calculating Return for "Lock & Roll" 5X Pay Quarter Machine
| December 1st, 2009 at 5:14:31 PM permalink | |
| dk Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 19 Posts: 138 | Removed due to incorrect assumptions. The ratio of people to cake is too big. |
| December 1st, 2009 at 7:35:49 PM permalink | |
| dk Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 19 Posts: 138 |
JB, are you valuing the above hand at 10? If so, I think that makes most of the difference between our calculations. Otherwise, I don't see much value in holding a Wild and a Cherry. I wasn't sure if it should be 10 or 0, so I went with 0 because it looked like that's the way the OP treated it. The ratio of people to cake is too big. |
| December 2nd, 2009 at 12:34:45 AM permalink | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| JB Administrator Member since: Oct 14, 2009 Threads: 298 Posts: 664 | Note: Figures revised 12/2/2009 4:18 PM
I found the source of our differences; we each had a mistake. To answer this question: that pays 25, since the wild takes the place of a second cherry, 2 cherries pays 5, and the wild multiplies that by 5x. My mistake was that I neglected to score 3 natural mixed bars correctly. Recomputing everything, I get a base return of 89.2434%, which is more realistic. I edited my earlier post to reflect the revised figures and strategy. Here are the total combinations for each prize, on the deal and after the draw:
 | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| December 2nd, 2009 at 12:39:44 AM permalink | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| JB Administrator Member since: Oct 14, 2009 Threads: 298 Posts: 664 | Note: Figures/strategy revised 12/2/2009 4:15 PM Here is the strategy for the break-even point when the jackpot exceeds $53,432.50:
| ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| December 2nd, 2009 at 4:34:32 AM permalink | ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| miplet Member since: Dec 1, 2009 Threads: 3 Posts: 481 |
You are missing a line for a payout for any 3 sevens of 30. My first spin results are the same exept for the following.
Edit to add Ok I found a typo in my program that accounted for my extra 10 payouts, so now they will be the same exept for the any 3 sevens
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| December 2nd, 2009 at 9:29:29 AM permalink | |
| dk Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 19 Posts: 138 | JB, Based on my revised calculations using 5x, Cherry as payout of 25 instead of 0 (no idea were I came up with 10), I get a return of 88.6777%. Compared to your revised optimal strategy, I come up with 13 first spin outcomes where we differ in strategy. With 2 of one type of seven and one of the other type of seven, you always hold the two of a kind, whereas I always hold all 3. This accounts for 6 differences. With r1=Seven Bar, r2=any other bar, r3=Blank, you hold r1 & r2, whereas I hold only r1. This accounts for 3 differences. With r1=Seven, r2=Triple Bar, r3=Blank; r1=Seven, r2=Blank, r3=Triple or Double Bar; and r1=Blank, r2=Seven, r3=Single, you hold the bar whereas I hold the Seven. This accounts for 4 differences. In all cases my calculations show that my play has a higher expectation; however you came up with a higher payback than I did. Any guess as to what I'm missing? The ratio of people to cake is too big. |
| December 2nd, 2009 at 1:31:30 PM permalink | |
| miplet Member since: Dec 1, 2009 Threads: 3 Posts: 481 | JB missed a the part of the paytable that says you get 30 for any three 7s. With r1=Seven Bar, r2=any other bar, r3=Blank I get a return of .608520507812 for holding r1 and 0.59375 for holding r1 and r2, so I agree with dk. Also agree with dk for the other differances. I'll post my chart tomarrow if you want it. I'll have to mess with some coding so it will post here. |
| December 2nd, 2009 at 1:42:36 PM permalink | |
| dk Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 19 Posts: 138 |
I thought of that, but if he just missed part of the pay table, his return should be lower than mine, not higher. miplet, I got the same returns for the plays you listed. What overall return did you come up with? The ratio of people to cake is too big. |
| December 2nd, 2009 at 1:53:37 PM permalink | |
| miplet Member since: Dec 1, 2009 Threads: 3 Posts: 481 | 0.900619121371 |
| December 2nd, 2009 at 4:20:36 PM permalink | |
| JB Administrator Member since: Oct 14, 2009 Threads: 298 Posts: 664 |
Thanks, you're right. I missed both the natural mixed bars and natural mixed 7's in my original version (I did have them with the wild, but missed the naturals). Your 90.0619% figure exactly matches what I calculated after adding in the natural mixed 7's. My previous posts have been edited to reflect the corrected results. |
| Bovada is the only Internet casino endorsed by the Wizard. Here are my reasons why and my promise of support. |