Does this make sence

Does a hold percentage over a long period of time translate to a more accureate edge for any given game, ex:
If your average hold in Blackjack is 15%, would the true house edge be 1.5, regardless of the math setting ?

There's no way to know unless you can track wagers. 10x is a rule of thumb, but not an accurate one. In Washington State blackjack hold is about 19%, and I know they don't have a 1.9% game there. A lot of it has to do with how long the player is at the table relative to the buy-in. In Vegas, I'd guess session-length to buy-in is a much smaller ratio than in regional, non-tourist markets. That means the hold is lower too.

Quote: emilee

Does a hold percentage over a long period of time translate to a more accureate edge for any given game, ex:
If your average hold in Blackjack is 15%, would the true house edge be 1.5, regardless of the math setting ?

If hold percentage refers to the amount of all money wagered won by the house, it will vary depending on how tightly players adhere to perfect strategy. I don't think that is the same as "true house edge" which represents the theoretical advantage the house has based on the rules of the game, even if all players do not use perfect strategy.

Why does the hold term even exist? Or, why isn't it applied to slots? You buy either chips or machine credits and play some or all and
then run out or cash out. Exactly the same process. So why is hold considered only on table games?

Quote: dm

Why does the hold term even exist? Or, why isn't it applied to slots? You buy either chips or machine credits and play some or all and
then run out or cash out. Exactly the same process. So why is hold considered only on table games?

In slots you can get the exact handle so you don't need to worry about drop. They call it "win percent" for both slots and tables in NV, but it's calculated accurately for slots.

The question comes down to this: How do games with various house advantages all seem to "hold" roughly the same over a long period of time? Roulette HA is 5.26%, Pai Gow Poker HA is under 2%, Let It Ride HA is 3.51%. Yet these games all hold roughly 28% over a several year period.

Based on a table on the wizard of odds site from an anonymous casino executive, a Roulette player earns comps exactly 3xs faster than a Pai Gow Poker player yet the games have almost identical holds. If, as the house, I am holding the same on both games why do I want to comp the Roulette player 3xs as much?

You'll notice on that chart that for some reason they have the HA for LIR set at only 2.4% for comping purposes. That's lower than the actual HA of 3.51%.
Interestingly they have the Spanish 21 comp HA set at 2.2% when the actual HA is well under 1%. That is explained by the disclaimer about player errors etc.

It is my understanding that each casino sets their own comping percentage for each game. I don't think there is a "must use this %" rule, but there are probably some industry accepted numbers. I expect that the comp percentage varies based on the player's bankroll and tightness of play too. Whales are given much more leeway than fleas playing full pay only on bonus days. I recall that at major properties, the majority of the "hold" comes from a relatively small number of players.

Here is the chart I was referring to on my last post. Sorry but it lost it's formatting when I pasted it here.

Hands per Hour, House Edge for Comp Purposes
The following table shows the average hands per hour and the house edge for comp purposes various games. The house edge figures are higher than those above, because the above figures assume optimal strategy, and those below reflect player errors and average type of bet made. This table was given to me anonymously by an executive with a major Strip casino and is used for rating players.

Hands per Hour and Average House Edge
Games Hands/Hour House Edge
Baccarat 72 1.2%
Blackjack 70 0.75%
Big Six 10 15.53%
Craps 48 1.58%
Car. Stud 50 1.46%
Let It Ride 52 2.4%
Mini-Baccarat 72 1.2%
Midi-Baccarat 72 1.2%
Pai Gow 30 1.65%
Pai Pow Poker 34 1.96%
Roulette 38 5.26%
Single 0 Roulette 35 2.59%
Casino War 65 2.87%
Spanish 21 75 2.2%
Sic Bo 45 8%
3 Way Action 70 2.2%

Quote: Larrymac

The question comes down to this: How do games with various house advantages all seem to "hold" roughly the same over a long period of time? Roulette HA is 5.26%, Pai Gow Poker HA is under 2%, Let It Ride HA is 3.51%. Yet these games all hold roughly 28% over a several year period.

Based on a table on the wizard of odds site from an anonymous casino executive, a Roulette player earns comps exactly 3xs faster than a Pai Gow Poker player yet the games have almost identical holds. If, as the house, I am holding the same on both games why do I want to comp the Roulette player 3xs as much?

You'll notice on that chart that for some reason they have the HA for LIR set at only 2.4% for comping purposes. That's lower than the actual HA of 3.51%.
Interestingly they have the Spanish 21 comp HA set at 2.2% when the actual HA is well under 1%. That is explained by the disclaimer about player errors etc.

I respectfullly disagree that all those games hold 28%. Pai gow and Pai Gow poker usually hold between 16-18%. Roulette holds over 20% regularly -- close to 25% in most cases. Let it Ride varies between 25-30% -- in the same neighborhood as Spanish 21 and Three card poker. A long-term roulette player is the casino's favorite customer, because they know they can wear them down with the grind and get a guaranteed profit. Roulette players also churn an insane amount of coin. Ever watch their play patterns standing next to the table? You ever see a roulette player make a big hit and leave? Never.

A roulette player will lose a lot, but also be comped a lot. The best game for earning comps is Spanish 21 with perfect strategy, or some of the poker-based house-banked card games. I played Spanish 21 for the longest time at a Harrah's store, and figured I was making a couple bucks every hour in cashback and comps. Same thing with Ultimate Texas Hold 'Em.

Quote: Larrymac

The question comes down to this: How do games with various house advantages all seem to "hold" roughly the same over a long period of time? Roulette HA is 5.26%, Pai Gow Poker HA is under 2%, Let It Ride HA is 3.51%. Yet these games all hold roughly 28% over a several year period.

http://gaming.nv.gov/documents/pdf/1g_10sep.pdf

TTM numbers for Roulette, Pai Gow Poker, and Let It Ride are 17.57%, 20.48%, and 23.24%, respectively. The only thing holding 28% in Nevada is Three Card Poker.

Moreover, a game like Pai Gow Poker has a *lot* more action per buy-in than a game like roulette. That explains the different ratios between EV and hold for those games.

Thanks for the link. I have to say I'm shocked at the Roulette hold in NV. I worked in IL for over 10 years and Roulette held 28%-29% for the entire time I was there. Again I ask the question after looking at these figures on the link: If PGP holds more than Roulette (surprisingly) why should players earn comps 3xs faster on Roulette? And if the HA on Roulette is almost 3xs that of PGP how can PGP have a higher hold %? How can 3 Card Poker hold 28% (almost 160% of Roulette's hold) while it has a lower HA than Roulette? There can't be that many player errors to account for the difference.

So I ask the question to other operators: Should we base our comp formulas on the mathematical house advantage or the long term hold % of the game? If, based on the hold % cited on the above link, I expect to win more from a PGP player over the course of a year than a Roulette player (both playing similar bankrolls) why do I want to comp the Roulette player 3xs as much as the PGP player just because the house advantage is higher?

Similarly from a player perspective, why play PGP if the guy next to me on Roulette is earning comps 3xs faster and I'm gonna lose more money than him according to your annual report?

Quote: Larrymac

If PGP holds more than Roulette (surprisingly) why should players earn comps 3xs faster on Roulette? And if the HA on Roulette is almost 3xs that of PGP how can PGP have a higher hold %? How can 3 Card Poker hold 28% (almost 160% of Roulette's hold) while it has a lower HA than Roulette? There can't be that many player errors to account for the difference.

I haven't studied the figures at all, so this is just speculation.

If (big "if" here) PGP players tend to buy in then play the game for hours longer than roulette players, then the grind (even at a lower house advantage percentage) would tend to eat up their buy-in, resulting in a greater table hold. The same could be true for 3CP -- maybe roulette players just get bored quickly and leave the table before losing all their money? As for the rate of earning comps, this might be related to the rate at which they are losing at the table -- a higher rate for roulette, even if the total left at the table (in shorter sessions) is less. If PGP and 3CP players stay at the tables for more hours, losing more money theoretically and in reality, then they probably get more total comps, too, after all those extra hours.

Yes, house edge is determined by the rules but, it is used in a formula to determine a theoretical win. At some point in time, isn't your theoretical supposed to become your actual. Also, wouldn't the skill level of the players reveal itself in the hold percentage? I realize this is a new perspective but the more I think about it, the more sence it seems to make. My industry piers are very resistent. I think it's worth discussion.

If you are referring to players "skilled" at roulette, then you have stepped into an area I consider fantasy.

I believe he is referring to the skill level of BJ players (which is what started this thread). If you have identical rules at 2 different locations and one location holds more than the other can you make the assumption that their players are less skilled? The question posed was "If your hold on BJ after 7 years is 15% can you say that your true HA is 1.5% even though your rules (with perfect play) dictate only a .65% HA?"

The only skill at Roulette would be past-posting without getting caught :) But that's a different topic

Quote: Larrymac

I believe he is referring to the skill level of BJ players (which is what started this thread). If you have identical rules at 2 different locations and one location holds more than the other can you make the assumption that their players are less skilled? The question posed was "If your hold on BJ after 7 years is 15% can you say that your true HA is 1.5% even though your rules (with perfect play) dictate only a .65% HA?"

Not at all. The HOLD is not just based on the House Advantage but time at table, bet sizing and all sorts of other things.

Not also EV is not the be all and end all. Variance has to be considered as well if your making statements about being ahead or behind over time, and how close you'll be to that EV.

A million dollars spent on the lottery has a much higher variance than a million dollars spent on $1 Blackjack.