onlyplayer
onlyplayer
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February 11th, 2016 at 4:55:09 PM permalink
I live in Vegas and I am retired. For the past 5 years I have recorded over 23,000 live shoes of Baccarat to test my strategy. I am unsure if this is sufficient data to start playing for real money. My record is 22,901 wins to 99 losses. I know these results are unrealistic, but all the data is from live tables in real Vegas casinos. After studying the game of Baccarat for more than 10 years I would like to play for real with real money. I realize there are not any systems or strategies that can win over a negative expectation game.

I would be grateful for some feedback from the people who know more about Baccarat then crazy me.

Please help.
MathExtremist
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February 11th, 2016 at 6:02:15 PM permalink
Do you really want to risk over $230 to win a buck?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
onlyplayer
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February 11th, 2016 at 6:35:11 PM permalink
Thanks for the feedback.

I am sorry I did not include the win loss $ amount........

$500.00 per loss
$50.00 per win

This is not the "Marty" system. It could not survive 20 shoes. I can survive 2500 to 3000 shoes average before a loss. I hope this helps.

Thanks
Wizardofnothing
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February 11th, 2016 at 6:47:15 PM permalink
Hey math, Here we go again
I'm amazed that you tracked 15 shoes a day 365 days a year for all those years ........ For what reason????
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
onlyplayer
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February 11th, 2016 at 7:28:58 PM permalink
I like to do as much research as possible before I play with real money.
onlyplayer
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February 11th, 2016 at 7:32:53 PM permalink
I live on the strip and I walk the strip 2 - 3 hours a day. I can track 200 - 250 shoes/day. I hope that is a good "reason".

Thanks
Ibeatyouraces
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February 11th, 2016 at 7:41:04 PM permalink
Must be some fast dealers and players.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
Wizardofnothing
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February 11th, 2016 at 7:56:42 PM permalink
Do you realize tracking 250 shoes a day is near impossible? Unless I am completely missing something.... Can someone fill me in ?
Isn't a shoe 70 hands apprx - so you are saying you personally can' chart 15k hands? A day?
I could not play 15k hands of video poker and I'm incredibly fast and know I play a hand if vp in not 10 faster then a dealer could deal 1 hand if bac
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
onlyplayer
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February 11th, 2016 at 8:05:49 PM permalink
Maybe I need to spell this out........

All Bacc tables have screens(boards) that show the shoe results. The casinos don,t mind if you take a picture of the screen. Some strip casinos have 10 - 15 Bacc tables to get data.

I can get 25 screens tracked in 5 min at the Venetian/Palazzo. That is 75 shoes in 3 hours at 1 shoe/hour average. I walk through 15 casinos a day.

I am a professional not a novice. Did you think I stood there and waited for each hand and wrote down the results? WOW..........

I am sorry for thinking this thread had some advice, not so much????????

Thanks
Wizardofnothing
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February 11th, 2016 at 8:09:37 PM permalink
It does have advice-no system will work in the long run evening you track2.3 million shoes,,
What exactly are you asking for advice on I didn't see what exactly you were looking for
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
onlyplayer
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February 11th, 2016 at 8:21:05 PM permalink
Sorry you did not see that. If you read my first post you would see I already said no system can beat a negative expectation game.

22.901 to 99 live game play.

I am not using the "Marty system" and I am not asking if my system works.

Is 22.901 to 99 enough to start playing with real money?
onlyplayer
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February 11th, 2016 at 8:21:36 PM permalink
Sorry you did not see that. If you read my first post you would see I already said no system can beat a negative expectation game.

22.901 to 99 live game play.

I am not using the "Marty system" and I am not asking if my system works.

Is 22.901 to 99 enough to start playing with real money?
onlyplayer
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February 11th, 2016 at 8:29:54 PM permalink
Sorry for the double post.
MathExtremist
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February 11th, 2016 at 8:35:50 PM permalink
Quote: onlyplayer

All Bacc tables have screens(boards) that show the shoe results. The casinos don,t mind if you take a picture of the screen. Some strip casinos have 10 - 15 Bacc tables to get data.

So you're only tracking P/B/T results, not numbers? I don't think you're going to get very far by looking at end results as opposed to actual cards, but on the other hand it's been proven that looking at actual cards doesn't do much either, except rarely at the end of a shoe, so...

Your results indicate that you lose once every 230 shoes, while you win 1/10 of what you lose. Over 23,000 shoes, if you lose 99 at $500 and win the other 22901 at $50, you're at about $47.63 theoretical win per shoe. Over the 23000 shoes that comes to a net win of just under $1,100,000.

Be honest: do you actually think you have a theoretical win of $47 per shoe?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
onlyplayer
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February 11th, 2016 at 8:45:23 PM permalink
Yes, $48.78 per shoe and $487.12 per loss.

I know it is only theoretical and that is why I tracked so may shoes trying to prove it wrong.

Math, what would you suggest I use to try to prove it wrong?

Thanks
Zcore13
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February 11th, 2016 at 8:58:29 PM permalink
I suggest real money. You'll find out pretty quickly how accurate you've been during this research.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
djatc
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February 11th, 2016 at 9:03:12 PM permalink
Make sure you stay hydrated and clear out all distractions.

Baccarat is a game of skill, where one makes great fortunes by riding with the dragon on the path or eternal happiness like the Buddha.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
onlyplayer
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February 11th, 2016 at 9:06:48 PM permalink
Thanks Zcore13

I think it should since I used results from real shoes.
I am a very cautious player. I can start at $5.00 minimum table.
Zcore13
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February 11th, 2016 at 9:10:18 PM permalink
Quote: onlyplayer

Thanks Zcore13

I think it should since I used results from real shoes.
I am a very cautious player. I can start at $5.00 minimum table.



That's a great idea. Sounds like you've got all bases covered. Now it's just time to make the casino pay.


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
onlyplayer
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February 11th, 2016 at 9:11:15 PM permalink
Now that's funny right there.

I will stay hydrated...................................

Great post.
EvenBob
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February 11th, 2016 at 9:20:35 PM permalink
That's the slow way to collect actuals. Go
to online casinos that have live dealers
that let you play for fun. Take screen shots
of completed games, you can do dozens
a day and never leave home. You can
also play for fun money on the real
wheels to see if your patterns and
trends system works. That's what you're
doing, looking for patterns and hoping
to spot trends.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
MathExtremist
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February 11th, 2016 at 9:21:42 PM permalink
Well, it already has been proven wrong so I'm not sure what would qualify as "proof" to you. If you agree that you don't have a theoretical edge then your results are necessarily due to good luck. If they weren't due to good luck, you'd have an edge, etc...

I'd start by reading the Wizard's page on baccarat counting or Eliot Jacobson's work on computer perfect play:
https://wizardofodds.com/games/baccarat/appendix/2/
http://apheat.net/2014/04/10/computer-perfect-play-against-baccarat/
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
AxelWolf
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February 11th, 2016 at 11:28:25 PM permalink
Quote: onlyplayer

Maybe I need to spell this out........

All Bacc tables have screens(boards) that show the shoe results. The casinos don,t mind if you take a picture of the screen. Some strip casinos have 10 - 15 Bacc tables to get data.

I can get 25 screens tracked in 5 min at the Venetian/Palazzo. That is 75 shoes in 3 hours at 1 shoe/hour average. I walk through 15 casinos a day.

I am a professional not a novice. Did you think I stood there and waited for each hand and wrote down the results? WOW..........

I am sorry for thinking this thread had some advice, not so much????????

Thanks

Wonderful, you take pictures, that's a good way. I can respect that and we have something legitimate to work with. It's hard to dispute your claims when your taking pictures. Assuming you're not cherry picking. You would only hurt yourself using cherry picked data. Everyone would love to see them pictures that wouls start an interesting conversation and someone can give you a solid game plan if there's something strange going on.

Please post them up or show them to someone who can verify.

Let me guess...
something happened to the pictures or you you deleted them all
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
HornHighYo11
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February 12th, 2016 at 12:19:44 AM permalink
I would be interested to know where the $5 minimum Bac tables are. Just like $5 and $3 craps games, they would be great places to "practice" with real money. WOV survey only shows 10 casinos with a $10 minimum.
EvenBob
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February 12th, 2016 at 12:43:21 AM permalink
Quote: HornHighYo11

I would be interested to know where the $5 minimum Bac tables are. Just like $5 and $3 craps games, they would be great places to "practice" with real money. WOV survey only shows 10 casinos with a $10 minimum.



Last time I was in Vegas I played $5 bac at
the Flamingo all afternoon. It went to $10
at 6pm and $15 at 8pm. Lots of places have
$5 bac during weekday afternoons.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
Wizardofnothing
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February 12th, 2016 at 1:00:36 AM permalink
I just left the strip at a major property with 5 dollar bacc not even 5 minutes ago
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
HornHighYo11
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February 12th, 2016 at 1:35:12 AM permalink
Great!
Best news all week.
Boz
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February 12th, 2016 at 2:12:04 AM permalink
Quote: onlyplayer

. I realize there are not any systems or strategies that can win over a negative expectation game.
.



Somewhere is the advice guide for posting here with a system is this line now a prerequisite?
OnceDear
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February 12th, 2016 at 3:14:56 AM permalink
Quote: onlyplayer

My record is 22,901 wins to 99 losses.
Please help.


WHAT???

OK. I just read the thread where you gave average value of each win and loss?

What was the most pretend money you had to lay on the table at any one time.

With that win rate, you don't sound like you need much help.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Feb 12, 2016
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
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February 12th, 2016 at 3:46:34 AM permalink
Quote: onlyplayer



I can survive 2500 to 3000 shoes average before a loss. I hope this helps.

Thanks



So, you gave us figures per loss and per win. Those losses and wins were shoes and not hands? Or was a win one shoe but a 'loss' a sequence of (10?) shoes?

Do you somehow make one wager per shoe? Or do you assign one shoe bankroll to each?

You can survive 2500 to 3000 shoes before 'a loss' What the dickens does that mean? Is that 'loss' of all your worldly fortune ( how much), or just $500 ( Playing 10c per shoe, which doesn't gel, of course)

if you can have any 'loss' of $500, then surely that is potentially a $1.5M loss after 3,000 shoes. Do you get that back in the $50 winner of shoe 3001.
What if you had 500 sequential losing shoes then won a couple then lost another few hundred?

None of what you say makes sense to me.

Incidentally, I guess you are transcribing your win records to a paper or spreadsheet record. That must be time consuming.

Did you design your system before or after analysing your results? If after, that would be described as painting the target where the arrow landed. That doesn't work in real life.
Last edited by: OnceDear on Feb 12, 2016
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
OnceDear
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February 12th, 2016 at 5:20:19 AM permalink
Quote: onlyplayer

Thanks for the feedback.

I am sorry I did not include the win loss $ amount........

$500.00 per loss
$50.00 per win

This is not the "Marty" system. It could not survive 20 shoes. I can survive 2500 to 3000 shoes average before a loss. I hope this helps.

Thanks


So. A Marty with unit size $50 could not survive 20 shoes. Well let's imply from that that Marty could survive 10 shoes at starting wager $50 ( per shoe )
From that I estimate that you are talking in terms of a bankroll of 50+100+200+400+800+1600+3200+6400+12800+25600 = $51K
Is that the sort of pretend bankroll you have played in your system to be able to survive 2500 to 3000 losing shoes? Lucky you only had 99 losing shoes.
Psalm 25:16 Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted. Proverbs 18:2 A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
DMSCR
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February 12th, 2016 at 6:36:36 AM permalink
Quote: HornHighYo11

I would be interested to know where the $5 minimum Bac tables are. Just like $5 and $3 craps games, they would be great places to "practice" with real money. WOV survey only shows 10 casinos with a $10 minimum.



Stadium Baccarat at the Palazzo.

Quote: EvenBob

Last time I was in Vegas I played $5 bac at
the Flamingo all afternoon. It went to $10
at 6pm and $15 at 8pm. Lots of places have
$5 bac during weekday afternoons.



Flamingo would be the place to go on the Strip if you are looking for low minimums. I have not seen $5 but I have always seen $10. Next is Harrahs but the lowest I have encountered and know of is $15.
DMSCR
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February 12th, 2016 at 6:39:40 AM permalink
Quote: onlyplayer

Thanks for the feedback.

I am sorry I did not include the win loss $ amount........

$500.00 per loss
$50.00 per win

This is not the "Marty" system. It could not survive 20 shoes. I can survive 2500 to 3000 shoes average before a loss. I hope this helps.

Thanks



Should be the other way around. This is going to be like risking $200 to win $10.

Testing your ideas from whole shoes is very very very misleading. To see if things hold up you need to test things in real time as the shoe reveal itself each outcome at a time. Good thing that the Michael/The Wiz built a bacc program here. Results are very much similar to what you would encounter here in Vegas. Practice through that program to see if your ideas hold up.
odiousgambit
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February 12th, 2016 at 6:51:10 AM permalink
uh oh, a testy bacc player.

wait until posters start explaining why tracking is a great waste of time. Even counting cards, which is not possible the way you do it, is a big waste. But for trend spotters, it is ... [maybe you shouldn't look, you are way too invested]

A MONUMENTAL WASTE OF TIME
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DMSCR
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February 12th, 2016 at 7:08:01 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

uh oh, a testy bacc player.

wait until posters start explaining why tracking is a great waste of time. Even counting cards, which is not possible the way you do it, is a big waste. But for trend spotters, it is ... [maybe you shouldn't look, you are way too invested]

A MONUMENTAL WASTE OF TIME



You need to say something more original.

That will save the trees in the Amazon.

Given how the majority do things I do agree with you there.
teliot
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February 12th, 2016 at 7:48:24 AM permalink
Quote: onlyplayer

I am a professional not a novice.

Quote: onlyplayer

I like to do as much research as possible before I play with real money.

That pretty much says everything we need to know about this poster.

I wrote a long article about this poster's universe just a few weeks back - Baccarat Angst
Climate Casino: https://climatecasino.net/climate-casino/
Ibeatyouraces
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February 12th, 2016 at 7:54:38 AM permalink
What's the over/under on when the vulgarities start flying and someone gets suspended?
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
odiousgambit
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February 12th, 2016 at 7:55:58 AM permalink
Quote: DMSCR

You need to say something more original.

That will save the trees in the Amazon.

Given how the majority do things I do agree with you there.



You hint quite a bit you do something unusual about tracking or some system [if not, sorry if I have you confused with somebody]. However you don't fly off the handle right and left. That always earns respect.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
DMSCR
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February 12th, 2016 at 7:56:29 AM permalink
Well given his extensive collection of baccarat shoes he recorded he would be a professional recorder.

I say the OP could be a previous member trying to yank some chains for the heck of it.
DMSCR
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February 12th, 2016 at 8:00:11 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

You hint quite a bit you do something unusual about tracking or some system [if not, sorry if I have you confused with somebody]. However you don't fly off the handle right and left. That always earns respect.



I use smoke signals and fart methane in my ways of recording a baccarat shoe. Works for me quite well. You should try it sometime. It works on other games on the floor as well. You have to love and respect the process. It is the law of the universe. You cannot escape it.
DMSCR
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February 12th, 2016 at 8:10:41 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

What's the over/under on when the vulgarities start flying and someone gets suspended?



Well it would definitely reverse the so-called Pax Wizardana in here for sure.
Last edited by: DMSCR on Feb 12, 2016
nodummy57
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February 12th, 2016 at 10:02:21 AM permalink
I was reviewing those link when my dog looked at the monitor. Now he is hypnotized and immobile.
never smarten up a chump
DMSCR
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February 12th, 2016 at 10:09:01 AM permalink
Quote: nodummy57

I was reviewing those link when my dog looked at the monitor. Now he is hypnotized and immobile.



That's awesome. It is doing something that I never knew it can ever be done. Now if you also grow a third nipple on your forehead then I definitely know I am breaking new grounds and charting new territories. I mean this is world domination stuff here.

Another baccarat thread "ruined" at the WOV.

Great team effort! Intentional or not. Bravo. LOL.
Last edited by: DMSCR on Feb 12, 2016
onlyplayer
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February 12th, 2016 at 11:15:24 AM permalink
Fun you all are..

I played today and I will post the results after a few weeks of play.. I know 1 or 2 days will not be enough. It may be just luck and I know this. That is why I feel safe playing at $5.00 to test it out for some time before playing with larger "BETS".

Correct, the Palazzo has Stadium Gaming (now called Dragon Baccarat) with $5.00 min and $120,000 max 24/7 and they just added the same game in the Venetian a few months ago. Sands has exclusive rights to this game for now. Live dealer dealing two shoes at a time until noon and a second dealer dealing 2 more shoes at a time after noon for a total of 4 shoes at a time. This makes 4 shoes per hour. If you are good you can play up to 4 shoes at the same time. I can save several hours a day at these tables. Faster than any single table and great minimums.

By the way I have never posted on this site or any other before yesterday. I just wanted some feedback from people who might look at the data from a different angle and you people did not disappoint.

Thanks to all of you for the great feedback and ideas. You are all funny and informative.

Thanks again
onlyplayer
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February 12th, 2016 at 11:34:52 AM permalink
Thanks for the advice DMSCR but I have my own Bacc program that works perfect for me.

I get a result in 6 seconds per tracked game (shoe) with my program.

Thanks
DMSCR
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February 12th, 2016 at 11:42:11 AM permalink
Well Vegas is the BEST place for bac. Tons of tables with low minimums compared to the East Coast. Good customer service and experience since there are tons of tables and casinos. If you don't like one you can head to the other without any traveling hassles. This is just the Strip alone.
DMSCR
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February 12th, 2016 at 11:44:59 AM permalink
Quote: onlyplayer

Thanks for the advice DMSCR but I have my own Bacc program that works perfect for me.

I get a result in 6 seconds per tracked game (shoe) with my program.

Thanks



Well if your tools work for you then great. Just don't rely too much on your testing. It is just a yardstick of what can be expected. When you put real money on the line it is a whole new different beast. Be happy if you get 1/5 of the results when you wager real money. If you can consistently pull a -2<0<+3/4, you are that rare 5%.
onlyplayer
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February 12th, 2016 at 11:55:07 AM permalink
You rush to judgment teliot,

I never said I was a professional Bacc player. I am a retired Actuary and computer programmer. I feel I know enough about numbers to know the math of Bacc. I will read your article for "shits and giggles" but I don't think I will get anything from it. Thanks anyway.

Just looking for advice from people who gamble, I am not a big gambler. I just love the math. This is a math thread right? Maybe I picked the wrong site.

I respect and appreciate the real Wizards math and explanations. I thought his members would also.

Thanks
onlyplayer
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February 12th, 2016 at 11:59:39 AM permalink
Thanks DMSCR you advice is much appreciated.

You are correct sir, Vegas is the best place to live and play Baccarat in the world...........

Thank You
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