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Theoretical and comp perameters
| August 17th, 2010 at 10:04:40 AM permalink | |
| jefflink Member since: Aug 17, 2010 Threads: 1 Posts: 2 | I need to understand what values have been placed into my system by my predessor so I can see if I am comping correctly. I am a new casino mgr at a property and am trying to see if my comping measures are correct, I ran a test on a John Doe account and gave him a $100 buy in with one hour of play at a $25 avg bet and a $100 cash out. I did this on craps, BJ, Roulette and 3 card poker. On craps the system gavee him a $16 theo loss and a $4 comp. On BJ it gave him a $17 theo loss and a $4 comp. On Roulette it gave him a $42 theo loss with $10 in comps and on 3 Card it gave him a $33 theo loss and $8 in comps. I'm just wanting to figure out the correct theo formula that was programed into the system and it's relationship to the comp $ offered? Can anyone help me? |
| August 17th, 2010 at 10:08:51 AM permalink | |
| mkl654321 Member since: Aug 8, 2010 Threads: 65 Posts: 3412 |
Sounds like the system is treating all games equal, with comps at about 22% of theo. However, this is wrong. Players should be comped at 200 percent of theoretical loss. I strongly suggest that you have the system reprogrammed to reflect this. The fact that a believer is happier than a skeptic is no more to the point than the fact that a drunken man is happier than a sober one. The happiness of credulity is a cheap and dangerous quality.---George Bernard Shaw |
| August 17th, 2010 at 10:25:01 AM permalink | |
| Triplell Member since: Aug 13, 2010 Threads: 3 Posts: 63 |
Is this serious? How would a casino make money? |
| August 17th, 2010 at 10:27:05 AM permalink | |
| rdw4potus Member since: Mar 11, 2010 Threads: 51 Posts: 1501 |
The payback % of ~20-25% of theoretical loss is appropriate (though, if you do decide to increase it, that'd be great...). Looking at the house edges for those games and the average number of decisions per hour, I get BJ: $25 bet * 70 hands per hour * .6% HA = $10.50 theoretical loss TCP: $25 bet * 30 hands per hour * 3.5% HA = $26.25 theoretical loss Craps: $25 bet * 80 rolls per hour * 30% roll resolution rate* 1.41% HA= $8.46 theoretical loss *EDITED* Roulette: $25 bet * 60 spins per hour* 5.26% HA= $78.90 theoretical loss Depending on the exact rules of your games and the pace of play in your casino, you can adjust the decisions/hour and house advantage to get a more accurate theoretical loss. Also, please note that there is pretty much a 0% chance of $100 lasting an hour with a $25 average bet in any of these games. "So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett |
| August 17th, 2010 at 10:28:02 AM permalink | |
| rdw4potus Member since: Mar 11, 2010 Threads: 51 Posts: 1501 |
It's tongue-in-cheek. But, to answer your question...video keno:-) "So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett |
| August 17th, 2010 at 11:02:42 AM permalink | |
| Triplell Member since: Aug 13, 2010 Threads: 3 Posts: 63 | Isn't the house edge in craps based on bets resolved? And Aren't most bets resolved on an average of 3-4 rolls. So the TL should be much less for craps I would say. |
| August 17th, 2010 at 11:06:58 AM permalink | |
| rdw4potus Member since: Mar 11, 2010 Threads: 51 Posts: 1501 |
D'oh, you're right! I don't play craps, and I thought about just leaving that one off the list. Instead I went for it and blew it. I've edited my post to reflect your comment. "So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett |
| August 17th, 2010 at 11:16:36 AM permalink | |
| jefflink Member since: Aug 17, 2010 Threads: 1 Posts: 2 | Thank you so very much. You are a life saver! |
| August 17th, 2010 at 11:31:48 AM permalink | |
| scotty81 Member since: Feb 4, 2010 Threads: 8 Posts: 185 | Comps for craps & BJ are more difficult because the type of bet and skill level of the player make a big difference. But, your levels are close to the industry average which is 20% of the average bet per hour for these games. This should put your comp value at $5, but $4 is close enough. You might want to adjust your roulette comp. Your system is assuming a pretty slow game: 30 spins per hour. 35 spins per hour is the current industry norm for a "blended" roulette theoretical. Some games move very fast. Some are excruciatingly slow. I suspect that some of the more sophisticated comp systems allow the pit to enter the speed of the game, which affects the theoretical. The Rapid Roulette systems are generally valued at almost double of a regular game because the RR game moves so fast - typically north of 50 spins per hour. Another factor you need to be aware of is that, in general, 40% of the "theo" is reserved for marketing in the overall scheme of things. The comps you are able to dole out at your discretion are only a portion of this total. The other portion goes into the other offers the casino uses to entice the player to come back (free rooms, promotional chips, tournaments, etc.) Your "discresionary" percentage appears to be 25%, which is about average. Since 00 Roulette offers you a huge HA, and the skill level of the player is not a factor, you might want to look into increasing the comp value so that you attract more roulette players. In general, the industry norm is to weight roulette at four times the value of BJ when it comes to comps. Upping the average number of assumed spins per hour to 35 or 40 instead of 30 would put you more in line with the industry average. So, I would say that with the execption of possibly underrating your roulette play, your comps are comparable with industry averages. Prediction is very difficult, especially about the future. - Niels Bohr |
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