Quote: ewjones080Quote: Wizard
Official warning -- rule 9 violation. Next time it will be a suspension.
I apologize and WAS worried I might be doing something frowned upon.. I just figured if it left the main page I wouldn't get any replies..
I just wanted to make sure I was right. And there's really two parts to this question. It pertains to a couple questions I posed to some fellow dealers..
Part one: A man is betting 4 numbers straight up on roulette and not really hitting. So I ask my fellow dealer, "What's the probability this player doesn't hit in three spins?" .. I say in any given spin he won't hit in (34/38).. So in a 3 spin sequence he won't hit (34/38)^3 .. My coworker says its in the vein of 34/38, bringing up the fact the last spin doesn't have any bearing on the next. I say well my question is slightly different, cause I'm talking about a 3 spin trial, not three 1 spin trials.
Part Two: After break, on a dead craps game, I pose this street game: You and I will flip a coin four times and if you get exactly two heads, you win, but any other result, I'll win. I'll even put up three to your two. Would you take the bet? My three coworkers had a surprising answer. No, because they thought they should've gotten 5:1 odds. They reasoned there's only five outcomes (so they REALLY meant 4:1) which are zero, one, two, three, or four heads. Thus, there's a one in five chance they win. At least two posited that HTTT wasn't really different from TTTH. Of course I posited that it WAS different. In actuality you need to look at ALL possibilities--which should be 16--of flipping 4 coins. Six of these contain exactly two heads. Everyone still questioned me. I tried to explain that not counting the four different versions of a single head was the same as counting just one version of a seven on dice.. "No, because two six sided dice is different than four coins" was the rebuttle.... Needless to say, I wasn't getting through. I even mentioned that this game was like 4 rolls of a two sided dice v. Two rolls of two six sided dice. So who's right?