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Probability
| October 14th, 2011 at 6:43:26 PM permalink | |
| Mosca Member since: Dec 14, 2009 Threads: 74 Posts: 1628 | Yeah, I got the same as miplet, too. NO KILL I |
| October 14th, 2011 at 8:26:47 PM permalink | |
| rdw4potus Member since: Mar 11, 2010 Threads: 57 Posts: 1976 |
1.106e-63 is very small number, so I started looking at your formulas. I think I must be missing something. Sum(x=1 to 13, x^4)=1+16+81+256+625+1296+2401+4096+6561+10000+14641+20736+28561=89271, and 52^4=7311616. 89271/7311616=.012209, which is a very long way from 0.000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000001106781796. "So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett |
| October 14th, 2011 at 8:44:04 PM permalink | |
| miplet Member since: Dec 1, 2009 Threads: 3 Posts: 552 |
There are also 4! or 24 ways to arrange those 4 cards which I believe is where your error is. |
| October 14th, 2011 at 10:32:14 PM permalink | |
| MathExtremist Member since: Aug 31, 2010 Threads: 46 Posts: 2521 |
There are three errors in your formula: 1) It's a product, not a sum 2) Miplet already pointed this out -- there are 4! ways to arrange each 4-card hand. 3) You quoted 52! as the denominator but then wrote 52^4 in your formula. Fixing all these yields PRODUCT(x = 1 to 13, 4!*x^4)/52! which gives the correct answer, 1.63387571E-11 or 1 in 61204166001.13 "In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice."
-- Girolamo Cardano, 1563 |
| October 16th, 2011 at 3:41:14 PM permalink | |
| Garnabby Member since: Aug 14, 2010 Threads: 4 Posts: 197 |
Going by suits alone, 4!^13 / (52!/13!^4) . Then i began to wonder, that for every ordering of the deck, there is at least one means of dealing which shall make each of those a solution. And intuitively, that some of these solutions might have more possibly-corresponding means of dealing than others. Then rendering this problem precisely-insoluble, without first observing the order of the cards before the means of dealing has been revealed, and the above number to merely an average over all means of dealing. Even were the problem well-defined here... in practice, there is still the comparatively-likely chance of dealing (clockwise, the usual way,) from a new, "mistakenly" unshuffled "boxed rack" of cards (with the jokers removed). Why bet at all, if you can be sure?
Anyway, what constitutes a "good bet"? - The best slots-game in town; a sucker's edge; or some gray-area blackjack-stunts?
(P.S. God doesn't even have to exist to be God.) |
| October 20th, 2011 at 1:52:39 AM permalink | |
| statman Member since: Sep 25, 2011 Threads: 12 Posts: 95 | Thank you for the correction, but I don't quite understand why the order of the cards in each hand is important. A fool is someone whose pencil wears out before its eraser does. - Marilyn Vos Savant |
| October 29th, 2011 at 8:13:11 PM permalink | |
| Garnabby Member since: Aug 14, 2010 Threads: 4 Posts: 197 |
Eg, if the suits run in an order like spade, heart, diamond, club, on down through the deck, then you can (and might) deal out the cards in both most-typical manners to arrive at the solution: by a set of four to each the players; or singly, clockwise, one card at a time to each. Perhaps someone would check on that, as i just now ran it through my head quickly only once. Besides that, understanding the differences from methods of shuffling to those of dealing can have implications in computer-program efficiencies, if not in also which is programed. Why bet at all, if you can be sure?
Anyway, what constitutes a "good bet"? - The best slots-game in town; a sucker's edge; or some gray-area blackjack-stunts?
(P.S. God doesn't even have to exist to be God.) |
| October 30th, 2011 at 4:42:42 AM permalink | |
| cardshark Member since: Nov 30, 2009 Threads: 6 Posts: 212 | This event (getting 4 hands of 13 cards all of the same suit, known as 4 perfect hands in bridge) actually happened in the 1950's. The 4 ladies who got dealt the perfect bridge hand appeared as guests on both "What's My Line?" and "I've Got a Secret". |
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