Can Vegas recover?

I lived in Vegas for nine years, and left about a year before the roof started to cave in. It seemed then, and it seems even more so now, that the gambling market is way overserved and that the casinos are way overbuilt. There doesn't appear to have been much of a drop in visitation, but people are staying for shorter periods of time, and they're spending less per person/day. Amazingly--TOTALLY amazingly, to me--the casinos have responded to this drop in business by tightening up the games, raising the price of EVERYTHING, and worst of all, drastically tightening comps, promos, and giveaways. As a result, employees are being laid off/fired left and right (Nevada has the nation's highest unemployment rate), people are leaving town for good, and real estate values have nosedived. Ironically, the drop in home value may be keeping some people in Vegas--either they can't sell at a loss, or don't want to.

I actually see half or more of the Vegas casinos shutting down within two years, given all the bankruptcies, and the stark fact that we won't be out of the Obama depression until 2015--by the gummint's own admission. Any faltering recovery will be torpedoed by the fact that many of Vegas' skilled casino workers have already left--there will soon no longer be any trained workforce to staff all those now-empty blackjack tables and make all the beds in those now-empty rooms.

I think the final nail in the coffin will be that the people who moved to Vegas during the boom have gradually become aware that it's a miserably hot, crowded, societally bankrupt, uncultured, fascist government cesspool where nothing useful gets created or accomplished--people get drunk and lose their money, lather, rinse repeat. Whee.

So I think that Vegas is circling the drain, and it will soon be half the size (population-wise) that it was during the boom years. Unemployment there will be 25-30%, and home values will drop another 10-15% before stabilizing. They will richly deserve their own end, as only carefully constructed stupidity, lovingly applied over a period of years, could have ruined the world's biggest cash cow (and it was NOT the recession that killed it--it was the casinos' reaction to it).

Quote: mkl654321

I lived in Vegas for nine years, and left about a year before the roof started to cave in. It seemed then, and it seems even more so now, that the gambling market is way overserved and that the casinos are way overbuilt. There doesn't appear to have been much of a drop in visitation, but people are staying for shorter periods of time, and they're spending less per person/day. Amazingly--TOTALLY amazingly, to me--the casinos have responded to this drop in business by tightening up the games, raising the price of EVERYTHING, and worst of all, drastically tightening comps, promos, and giveaways. As a result, employees are being laid off/fired left and right (Nevada has the nation's highest unemployment rate), people are leaving town for good, and real estate values have nosedived. Ironically, the drop in home value may be keeping some people in Vegas--either they can't sell at a loss, or don't want to.

I actually see half or more of the Vegas casinos shutting down within two years, given all the bankruptcies, and the stark fact that we won't be out of the Obama depression until 2015--by the gummint's own admission. Any faltering recovery will be torpedoed by the fact that many of Vegas' skilled casino workers have already left--there will soon no longer be any trained workforce to staff all those now-empty blackjack tables and make all the beds in those now-empty rooms.

I think the final nail in the coffin will be that the people who moved to Vegas during the boom have gradually become aware that it's a miserably hot, crowded, societally bankrupt, uncultured, fascist government cesspool where nothing useful gets created or accomplished--people get drunk and lose their money, lather, rinse repeat. Whee.

So I think that Vegas is circling the drain, and it will soon be half the size (population-wise) that it was during the boom years. Unemployment there will be 25-30%, and home values will drop another 10-15% before stabilizing. They will richly deserve their own end, as only carefully constructed stupidity, lovingly applied over a period of years, could have ruined the world's biggest cash cow (and it was NOT the recession that killed it--it was the casinos' reaction to it).

I think your predictions are a little dire and over the top. Yeah, Vegas is not going to jump right back up to the peak, but its not going to go down the drain either. Half the casinos closing? No way. Worst thing that happens to casinos - generally - is they file BK, reorganize their debt, and continue operating. The debt burden is the thing that is suffocating the casinos, not their operational performances.

The Western world runs on caffeine and attitude. If it wants to come back, it will.

This is humorous and as with all humor there is an element of truth to it.

Get drunk, lose money rinse and repeat. Yeah well no need to rinse unless its summertime.

Overbuilt and burdened by debt so they become LESS welcoming to the players! Yes, typical backwards actions.

Competition may force a re-structuring of the value of a casino and this may affect those balance sheets and pre-arranged bankruptcy workout plans, but Vegas will recover after all those bookkeeping adjustments. Just take some time.

I've some advice for all of you, Paco included: quit living in the present.

Sure, things are bad now, and the Democrats are doing their best to make things worse, and perhaps the casinos haven't handled things the best way possible (though I dispute the assertion they've raised prices on everything), but that doesn't men things will stay bad.

Things may get worse yet, surely, ask New Yorkers who remember the 70s and 80s, but eventually they will improve. If there is excess capacity, then projects like Echelon and others will languish for a long time. Some casinos may scale back or even close down.

In particular the north end of the Strip may die. Given the gaps around the Sahara, Circus-Circus and Riviera, that's emminently possible. If that part of town dies, it will be replaced by something else. It's possible MGM will go broke or will have to downsize, too.

Las Vegas is just too big to die. Small towns die now and then, but big cities can survive catastrophes, see New Orleans.

I thought there was a ray of hope when Aria opened up. The VP was a good deal (the best on the strip IMO), and the slots were set for decent returns (you can tell by the configuration on the Virtual Reels). Maybe decent competition for players would jolt the strip back into reality.

That appears to have ended. I just visited Aria, and the Virtual Reels on my favorite "fun" slots are now set to low payback (same as Bellagio), and 6/5 JorB VP has made its ugly appearance on the main floor.

Haven't the casinos learned that you don't increase your traffic and action by tightening down the thumbscrews on the players that choose to frequent your establishment? Aria now seems to be leading the charge into the abyss.

I agree with scotty81. I feel the big resorts cater to tourists rather than gamblers, and most everything is overpriced in my opinion. I'm from the midwest, so my earnings are significantly less than east and west coasters. $100 per person meals are out of my reach. However, I am a $1,000 gambler (I buy in for a $1,000 at the craps table, and usually have a $3,000 total bankroll), and I get no comps at all in Las Vegas. At the local casino I can at least get free rooms. I don't enjoy Vegas as much as I used to because there are no good blackjack games at low minimums, and virtually all the strip casinos limit odds on craps to 3-4-5x. I long for the days when gamblers were welcomed with free rooms, cheap food and good entertainment.

Quote: Headlock

I long for the days when gamblers were welcomed with free rooms, cheap food and good entertainment.

Have you tried Downtown and the Boulder Strip?

I don't know about BJ, but in craps you get 20x odds at Main Street Station and Sam's Town, and 100x odds at the Eastside Cannery.

As for cheap food, the Harrah's 7 buffets deal is great. If you time it right you can get 4 meals out of every pass. that's about $10 per buffet, including the ones at Rio, Paris and PH.

Try Mandalay Bay for blackjack.I played there the week leading up to July 4th and there were plenty of $10 minimum tables with a .28% H.A.They didn't go to $15 until 6PM or 7PM.

Quote: Nareed

I've some advice for all of you, Paco included: quit living in the present. Las Vegas is just too big to die. Small towns die now and then, but big cities can survive catastrophes, see New Orleans.

Well I disagree that Las Vegas is just too big too die. Detroit has been dying off for almost 60 years and is down to half of it's peak size. I believe that St. Louis was once the fourth largest city in the country (if we regard Brooklyn and Manhattan to be one city) and is now a shell of it's former glory.

But I am not apocalyptic about Las Vegas. I don't see the fountains turned off. However, if the city wants to do more than languish it will have to have transporation to Southern California. If it was roughly equal amounts of effort to go the 100 miles from Disneyworld to San Diego as it was to go the 250 miles from Disneyworld to Las Vegas then the whole region will be seen as a single destination to foreign travellers.