Nareed's Laws of Las Vegas (Tourist Edition)

Quote: JerryLogan

That's uneducated at best. "Health" applies to every person in either good or bad terms. Every issue you mentioned as well as the health issue are almost entirely understood.

I'd say you're not at the level you like you think you are. Looks like the majority understand that. Bad luck for you.

You must be joking. A guy hitting a tree is considered 'unlucky' by almost everybody. Finding a bargain at a garage sale is the epitome of good luck, you beat evrybody else to it. Buying a house at great price is being in the right place at the right time, and what causes that? Luck, of course. Everytning in life that seems t be caused by mysterious forces is always labeled luck. Its mild in America. Go to places like Asia, luck is a damned religion there.

Quote: EvenBob

Buying a house at great price is being in the right place at the right time, and what causes that? Luck, of course.

That's just what I mean when I say there's no such thing as luck. Nothing "caused" the royal you hit on VP, it's just how the cards were dealt.

Consider this. Every person is a unique mixture of genetic material inherited from both parents. Even though a set of parents has only a limited number of chromosome arrangements in their gametes, the results of reproduction vary enormously. In other words, you ressemble your siblings, but you are all distinct from each other. There are reasons for this which are not germane right now.

However, had your parents conceived a day later, you wouldn't exist. Had they not met, you wouldn't exist. Had your mother misscarried you, naturally you wouldn't exist. Had any of your grandparents not met, you wouldn't exist. Had your great-great-great-great-grandmother postponed sex for a few hours, you woulnd't exist. So every person is the result of a myriad coincidences stretching back literally thousands of years.

Do you realize just how unlikely any person at all is?

What casues that? Nothing. There's no cause. There is a mixture of deliberate decisions and random chance.

Quote:

Everytning in life that seems t be caused by mysterious forces is always labeled luck.

You can label it whatever you want. Some label it God's divine will, or God's plan. The label itself is not proof.

Quote: EvenBob

Everytning in life that seems t be caused by mysterious forces is always labeled luck.

I call it fate or karma, and specifically avoid calling it luck:-)

Quote: rdw4potus

I call it fate or karma, and specifically avoid calling it luck:-)

The more backward a culture is, the more they talk about luck. The more we understand about how things work, the more the word disappears. I've finally gotten the valet parkers at my local casino to stop saying 'good luck' to me when I get out of my car. I just kept asking them what that means, and if they really mean it, and most of them finally got the message.

Quote: DJTeddyBear

I completely missed it.


On the other hand, I learned first hand about law #6 a few years ago, when I decided to walk from the Stratosphere to Circus Circus. With the wife. In the mid-afternoon. In August.

It was only about an inch on the map....

in '08 i had my bachelor party in vegas. one of my buddies had never been before. we were staying at mandalay bay. he walked from our hotel to DOWN TOWN! A few of us had gotten up before anyone else and were at the belliago playing craps, i called him and he was on his way to downtown

Quote: Nareed

That's just what I mean when I say there's no such thing as luck. Nothing "caused" the royal you hit on VP, it's just how the cards were dealt.

Consider this. Every person is a unique mixture of genetic material inherited from both parents. Even though a set of parents has only a limited number of chromosome arrangements in their gametes, the results of reproduction vary enormously. In other words, you ressemble your siblings, but you are all distinct from each other. There are reasons for this which are not germane right now.

However, had your parents conceived a day later, you wouldn't exist. Had they not met, you wouldn't exist. Had your mother misscarried you, naturally you wouldn't exist. Had any of your grandparents not met, you wouldn't exist. Had your great-great-great-great-grandmother postponed sex for a few hours, you woulnd't exist. So every person is the result of a myriad coincidences stretching back literally thousands of years.

Do you realize just how unlikely any person at all is?

What casues that? Nothing. There's no cause. There is a mixture of deliberate decisions and random chance.

You can label it whatever you want. Some label it God's divine will, or God's plan. The label itself is not proof.

For that reason alone, I consider my own existence to be very lucky indeed. But do I exist?

Quote: EvenBob

The more backward a culture is, the more they talk about luck. The more we understand about how things work, the more the word disappears. I've finally gotten the valet parkers at my local casino to stop saying 'good luck' to me when I get out of my car. I just kept asking them what that means, and if they really mean it, and most of them finally got the message.

Like I said, you're only trying to impress people who are much more in tune with their own intelligence than you want them to be. Your first sentence indicates how much you've been tongue-tied by this discussion. The US is hardly backwards, yet even presidents, CEO's, Military leaders, and scholars mention the word "luck" at appropriate times. But you don't unless you can put on a foolish act about it. What's that tell you.

Quote: JerryLogan

Like I said, you're only trying to impress people who are much more in tune with their own intelligence than you want them to be. Your first sentence indicates how much you've been tongue-tied by this discussion. The US is hardly backwards, yet even presidents, CEO's, Military leaders, and scholars mention the word "luck" at appropriate times. But you don't unless you can put on a foolish act about it. What's that tell you.

Aren't you the guy who won the douchebag poll? Gee, I wonder why. Your post is so silly I can't even reply to it..

Odds, variance, all the math that everyone invokes to say luck doesn't exist... Luck is the unpredictableness of experience. Looking forward, it represents potential, and yes, the feelings toward that potential. Looking back, it describes results.

Folks are trying to put a hard definition to a soft noun. You are trying to hit a butterfly by throwing a brick at it. Just because this is a math-oriented forum doesn't mean I can't feel lucky. Or that I can't say losing every bet all night was unlucky. You can call that "short term variance" if you want to, but it sure feels like "unlucky as hell".

If I tried to use those feelings to predict my results; if I said that there is no such thing as odds or variance, that it is all luck; if I said that because I was lucky this afternoon, that I will be lucky tonight, or because I haven't hit the jackpot then I'm due... yeah, all that is wrong. But you can't intellectualize the fact that we can only see up until NOW, and what will happen can only be estimated. Who knows, I might get lucky.

Quote: EvenBob

The more backward a culture is, the more they talk about luck.

That is completely wrong. Understanding does not lead to more understanding; it leads to more mystery. The less you know, the more certain you are that you know it all.

Quote: Mosca

Odds, variance, all the math that everyone invokes to say luck doesn't exist... Luck is the unpredictableness of experience. Looking forward, it represents potential, and yes, the feelings toward that potential. Looking back, it describes results.

Folks are trying to put a hard definition to a soft noun. You are trying to hit a butterfly by throwing a brick at it. Just because this is a math-oriented forum doesn't mean I can't feel lucky. Or that I can't say losing every bet all night was unlucky. You can call that "short term variance" if you want to, but it sure feels like "unlucky as hell".

If I tried to use those feelings to predict my results; if I said that there is no such thing as odds or variance, that it is all luck; if I said that because I was lucky this afternoon, that I will be lucky tonight, or because I haven't hit the jackpot then I'm due... yeah, all that is wrong. But you can't intellectualize the fact that we can only see up until NOW, and what will happen can only be estimated. Who knows, I might get lucky.

I was thinking about your point that luck includes emotion, and while I don't completely agree with it, I understand where you're coming from with it.

I think a lot of it is because the concept of luck is something we understand at a young age. Since lots of things seemingly happen out of chance (or, at least, it seems that way when a human isn't in complete control of a situation), it's an easy concept to get. Given that + the stakes when gambling, it's easy to associate emotion with it.

Since the concept of "luck" is a lot more natural than "short term variance", it seems a lot more natural to call it "luck", even though it's referring to similar things.

Luck is also a concept that also isn't always easily quantifiable. It is, in gambling, because it's easy to know the house edge, variance, and all the other stats that go along with a particular game. Thus, it seems more mysterious when used in everyday life, as all the factors aren't known.

I think that Luck is a causal relationship with emotion, instead of an inclusive relationship.

For example, here are two statements:

1.) Good luck can cause a positive emotional reaction.
2.) Good luck includes a positive emotional reaction.

To me, statement #1 seems more appropriate. I don't think a positive emotional reaction is necessary for good luck, thus the emotional reaction isn't included in the definition of luck.