painlesswon
painlesswon
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April 16th, 2012 at 1:32:29 PM permalink
Commerce Casino just last week introduced a progressive jackpot bet on there Ultimate Texas Hold-Em game. It is based on a high hand composed of two hole cards and the three card flop.
The dollar bet can be made for either the player or house cards, or both ( dollar each.)
The following is the pay table:

Royal Flush 100%

Straight Flush 10%

4 of a Kind $500

Full House $100

Flush $50

Straight $25


The Progressive was $10,206.60 last week.

The progressive bet unfortunately slows down the game quite a bit as players buy in electronic credits to play.

Can the Wizard or his minions discuss this bet? When dose it become a positive EVbet?

Im just guessing it would have to be very high, in the order of $150,000, making it a very bad bet at present.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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April 16th, 2012 at 2:30:12 PM permalink
Is there an envy bet if someone at your table hits the SF or RF? If not, I think the breakeven is a little over $177,000.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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April 16th, 2012 at 5:57:48 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

Is there an envy bet if someone at your table hits the SF or RF? If not, I think the breakeven is a little over $177,000.



As a California cardroom game, I'm pretty sure there is a "pay to play" penalty. Is it $1 a hand for this game, or a percentage?
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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April 16th, 2012 at 6:07:09 PM permalink
I didn't consider the base game at all. Just a for-1 payout on the $1 bonus.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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April 17th, 2012 at 12:16:13 PM permalink
The Wizard's UTH Main Page - Progressive Side Bet #2 has an analysis of a similar progressive in Michigan. It only pays $300 for quads and $50 for a full house. With the poorer payouts, the breakeven is $160,530.63, so $150k could be in the ballpark.

If you have to pay a $1 a hand, it will automatically lower your return, and push the breakeven higher.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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April 17th, 2012 at 12:42:14 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba


If you have to pay a $1 a hand, it will automatically lower your return, and push the breakeven higher.



I can see your line of thinking, but I think it depends on the player's intentions. If I were going to play UTH in CA anyway, and play the progressive only if it were attractive, then I don't think I'd apply the $1 ante to the $1 progressive bet. But if the progressive were my only motivation to play, I'd take both the HA of the underlying game and the $1 ante into consideration before playing.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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April 17th, 2012 at 1:48:07 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

I can see your line of thinking, but I think it depends on the player's intentions. If I were going to play UTH in CA anyway, and play the progressive only if it were attractive, then I don't think I'd apply the $1 ante to the $1 progressive bet. But if the progressive were my only motivation to play, I'd take both the HA of the underlying game and the $1 ante into consideration before playing.



Hmm, I always assumed you had to play the base game to participate in the progressive, so there is no getting around the base game participation "cost". I suppose it is proper to apply the "ante" to the base game, since the progressive is optional. If the cost to play each hand is $1, you are putting in $11 to win $10 on what would be an even money payout outside of California Card Clubs.

Has anyone seen a table where you could just bet the progressive? Seems video poker would be a better wager.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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April 17th, 2012 at 2:00:43 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Hmm, I always assumed you had to play the base game to participate in the progressive, so there is no getting around the base game participation "cost". I suppose it is proper to apply the "ante" to the base game, since the progressive is optional. If the cost to play each hand is $1, you are putting in $11 to win $10 on what would be an even money payout outside of California Card Clubs.

Has anyone seen a table where you could just bet the progressive? Seems video poker would be a better wager.



I've never seen it where you can only play the progressive. But you can certainly sit out until the progressive is high enough. I don't have the numbers in front of me (or memorized) for UTH, but for 3CP the progressive breaks even at about $9,600 and brings the progressive + 1/4/5/30/40/50 PP bet positive at about $13,000. So, I only play when the progressive is >$13k, and then I only play min PP + $1 progressive.
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Tiltpoul
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April 17th, 2012 at 2:03:32 PM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

I've never seen it where you can only play the progressive. But you can certainly sit out until the progressive is high enough. I don't have the numbers in front of me (or memorized) for UTH, but for 3CP the progressive breaks even at about $9,600 and brings the progressive + 1/4/5/30/40/50 PP bet positive at about $13,000. So, I only play when the progressive is >$13k, and then I only play min PP + $1 progressive.



Funny you should bring up the TCP Progressive bet. I was in Tunica this weekend (short report coming later on my blog) and went to Sam's Town. They have TCP Progressive, with the bad PP payout. However, the regular TCP table without the progressive has 4-1 on the flush. I went to specifically play this game, and was heads up with the dealer the entire time. When I sat down, the dealer asked why I wasn't at the Progressive table. I told him I'd rather get 4-1 on the Flush and the Progressive wasn't high enough. As it was, I had a GREAT run on that table, and afterwards, I thanked the Pit Boss for keeping the old pay table on the game.
"One out of every four people are [morons]"- Kyle, South Park
painlesswon
painlesswon
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April 18th, 2012 at 8:26:13 AM permalink
Yes... You have to pay the house $1 per hand
For the base game ... And additional $1 per
Progressive bet u want to make.....
Indeed this house payoff eats into ur base game
Negative expectation or house edge.... And
Is the price we pay not to go vegas.
rdw4potus
rdw4potus
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April 18th, 2012 at 8:46:14 AM permalink
Quote: painlesswon


Indeed this house payoff eats into ur base game
Negative expectation or house edge.... And
Is the price we pay not to go vegas.



But you could play the game without the $1 ante at San Manuel or Fantasy Springs or Morongo or Pala or... (just avoid the card clubs in LA County and you could play for free...)
"So as the clock ticked and the day passed, opportunity met preparation, and luck happened." - Maurice Clarett
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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April 18th, 2012 at 10:05:08 AM permalink
Quote: rdw4potus

But you could play the game without the $1 ante at San Manuel or Fantasy Springs or Morongo or Pala or... (just avoid the card clubs in LA County and you could play for free...)



With gas over $4 a gallon, you are going to spend two dozen bets, and four hours, just getting from L.A. to the Indian casinos and back. Commerce is located 15 minutes from the center of downtown L.A.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
boymimbo
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April 18th, 2012 at 11:59:23 AM permalink
This pay table is very much like the Caribbean Stud table bonus and you would follow the same table as a 5 card poker hand.

I get that the house advantage is .531922 - .0292424 per 10,000 in the meter.

Break even is $181,900 in the meter.
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hook3670
hook3670
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April 18th, 2012 at 12:53:17 PM permalink
The Harrahs progressive is a bit different. It is the jackpot for a 5 card royal. A royal using seven cards is 25% of the pot and all other payouts are based on using all 7 cards: straight flush 3,000-1, four of a kind 100-1, full house 10-1. The jackpot is usually between $80 and $100K.
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