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Home » Forums » Questions and Answers » Gambling » 70 percent of people at a casino visit are ahead at one point - John Patrick?
70 percent of people at a casino visit are ahead at one point - John Patrick?
| October 19th, 2011 at 11:01:03 AM permalink | |
| Keyser Member since: Apr 16, 2010 Threads: 19 Posts: 578 | "70 percent of people at a casino visit are ahead at one point" I've seen this phrase tossed around in various locations for a while now. What's the source of this bad information? Is it John Patrick? |
| October 19th, 2011 at 11:07:02 AM permalink | |
| konceptum Member since: Mar 25, 2010 Threads: 25 Posts: 562 | Wouldn't there need to be a clear definition of "being ahead"? For example, on my last trip to Las Vegas, I was given a free hotel stay for three nights. At the point that I check in, aren't I technically "ahead" by the cost of 3 hotel room nights? |
| October 19th, 2011 at 11:23:25 AM permalink | |
| s2dbaker Member since: Jun 10, 2010 Threads: 34 Posts: 1215 | If you win the first bet, you are ahead. If you lose the first bet and win the next two, then you are ahead. That should account for 70% right there. |
| October 19th, 2011 at 11:25:32 AM permalink | |
| Mosca Member since: Dec 14, 2009 Threads: 74 Posts: 1628 | Man, I dunno. I'd agree with it. You sit down at a slot and on the third spin, you get 3 mixed bars... you're up one unit. Win the first two hands at blackjack, or the first roll at craps, you're up. Put $100 in a $1 WoF slot and get a spin some time in the first 20 pulls, you're going to be ahead. Most people don't go to win, they go to have fun. Winning and leaving after 3 minutes isn't fun. You don't go to a football game and leave after the first series of downs because if you stay you'll buy a hot dog and a beer. Being ahead at any one point is totally irrelevant. NO KILL I |
| October 19th, 2011 at 11:55:54 AM permalink | |
| thecesspit Member since: Apr 19, 2010 Threads: 38 Posts: 3108 | It's probably about right. I did some sums on VP once when discussing VP with JerryLogan, and if "winning" was being up one bet at any point, with a reasonable bank roll, you would win over 80% (might be 90%) of the time playing JoB. Thing was you'd lose the rest of the time you entire bankroll, so the casino still won and the EV of the house worked. And even if you limited the number of hands, you would be up at some point more than 50% of the time... but "take the win" tactics don't work. You go back enough times, you will hit the over 30% and lose more than you won. "Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept through nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire, for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829 |
| October 19th, 2011 at 11:56:28 AM permalink | |
| DJTeddyBear Member since: Nov 2, 2009 Threads: 105 Posts: 5727 | Personally, I think it's actually higher than 70%. The problem is, the point at which you're ahead, rarely coincides with the time at which you've planned to leave. Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown.
But how much does it cost to knock on wood? |
| October 19th, 2011 at 12:00:15 PM permalink | |
| FleaStiff Member since: Oct 19, 2009 Threads: 75 Posts: 4827 | Nah. Let's not split hairs about it. "Being ahead" is a state of being. An emotion. You see your spouse approaching the table, you glance down at your chips and tell her "I'm ahead five bucks and all my bets on the table are with their money". You don't do some calculations about comps or expected traffic jams or hotel rooms. Ahead means you are "in the plus column" or "in the black". Ahead usually means by a substantial enough amount to matter to you and after a substantial enough amount of time to be of significance to you. We need not slice an already fine hair ... If you look down after twenty minutes and see "X" more chips than you started with, you are ahead. If you see fewer than you started with ... you are 'down'. Sure after the very first spin of the wheel you can be either UP or DOWN, but no one really counts that it would be a "JUST GOT HERE" response if a friend happened to walk by and ask how you were doing. After a few spins you are then in a position to feel 'ahead' or 'behind'. |
| October 19th, 2011 at 12:04:52 PM permalink | |
| kp Member since: Feb 28, 2011 Threads: 7 Posts: 422 |
Regardless of how well you did this morning or yesterday. |
| October 19th, 2011 at 12:05:52 PM permalink | |
| 7outlineaway Member since: Nov 13, 2009 Threads: 9 Posts: 276 |
Assuming a perfectly fair game, that's only 62.5%, not 70%. (And the infinite series still only sums to 2/3.) |
| October 19th, 2011 at 12:10:49 PM permalink | |
| FleaStiff Member since: Oct 19, 2009 Threads: 75 Posts: 4827 | Whichever makes you feel better. I'd tend to focus on a "session" particularly if I am ahead that session but had lost earlier. Some might say "I'm on a comeback" meaning I lost earlier but I'm gaining on them and will catch up shortly. No one is going to admit in the middle of a spin that they are thinking of airline tickets and hotel rooms and tips to the valet and paying for some hooker. Just as the casino segregates out your Comps and your gambling; so too do the players. |
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