Keyser
Keyser
Joined: Apr 16, 2010
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October 19th, 2011 at 11:01:03 AM permalink
"70 percent of people at a casino visit are ahead at one point"

I've seen this phrase tossed around in various locations for a while now. What's the source of this bad information? Is it John Patrick?
konceptum
konceptum
Joined: Mar 25, 2010
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October 19th, 2011 at 11:07:02 AM permalink
Wouldn't there need to be a clear definition of "being ahead"? For example, on my last trip to Las Vegas, I was given a free hotel stay for three nights. At the point that I check in, aren't I technically "ahead" by the cost of 3 hotel room nights?
s2dbaker
s2dbaker
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October 19th, 2011 at 11:23:25 AM permalink
If you win the first bet, you are ahead. If you lose the first bet and win the next two, then you are ahead. That should account for 70% right there.
Someday, joor goin' to see the name of Googie Gomez in lights and joor goin' to say to joorself, "Was that her?" and then joor goin' to answer to joorself, "That was her!" But you know somethin' mister? I was always her yuss nobody knows it! - Googie Gomez
Mosca
Mosca
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October 19th, 2011 at 11:25:32 AM permalink
Man, I dunno. I'd agree with it. You sit down at a slot and on the third spin, you get 3 mixed bars... you're up one unit. Win the first two hands at blackjack, or the first roll at craps, you're up. Put $100 in a $1 WoF slot and get a spin some time in the first 20 pulls, you're going to be ahead.

Most people don't go to win, they go to have fun. Winning and leaving after 3 minutes isn't fun. You don't go to a football game and leave after the first series of downs because if you stay you'll buy a hot dog and a beer. Being ahead at any one point is totally irrelevant.
NO KILL I
thecesspit
thecesspit
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October 19th, 2011 at 11:55:54 AM permalink
It's probably about right. I did some sums on VP once when discussing VP with JerryLogan, and if "winning" was being up one bet at any point, with a reasonable bank roll, you would win over 80% (might be 90%) of the time playing JoB.

Thing was you'd lose the rest of the time you entire bankroll, so the casino still won and the EV of the house worked.

And even if you limited the number of hands, you would be up at some point more than 50% of the time... but "take the win" tactics don't work. You go back enough times, you will hit the over 30% and lose more than you won.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
Joined: Nov 2, 2009
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October 19th, 2011 at 11:56:28 AM permalink
Personally, I think it's actually higher than 70%.

The problem is, the point at which you're ahead, rarely coincides with the time at which you've planned to leave.
Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? Note that the same could be said for Religion. I.E. Religion is nothing more than organized superstition.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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October 19th, 2011 at 12:00:15 PM permalink
Quote: konceptum

Wouldn't there need to be a clear definition of "being ahead"?

Nah. Let's not split hairs about it. "Being ahead" is a state of being. An emotion. You see your spouse approaching the table, you glance down at your chips and tell her "I'm ahead five bucks and all my bets on the table are with their money". You don't do some calculations about comps or expected traffic jams or hotel rooms. Ahead means you are "in the plus column" or "in the black". Ahead usually means by a substantial enough amount to matter to you and after a substantial enough amount of time to be of significance to you.

We need not slice an already fine hair ... If you look down after twenty minutes and see "X" more chips than you started with, you are ahead. If you see fewer than you started with ... you are 'down'.

Sure after the very first spin of the wheel you can be either UP or DOWN, but no one really counts that it would be a "JUST GOT HERE" response if a friend happened to walk by and ask how you were doing. After a few spins you are then in a position to feel 'ahead' or 'behind'.
kp
kp
Joined: Feb 28, 2011
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October 19th, 2011 at 12:04:52 PM permalink
Quote: FleaStiff

f you look down after twenty minutes and see "X" more chips than you started with, you are ahead.


Regardless of how well you did this morning or yesterday.
7outlineaway
7outlineaway
Joined: Nov 13, 2009
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October 19th, 2011 at 12:05:52 PM permalink
Quote: s2dbaker

If you win the first bet, you are ahead. If you lose the first bet and win the next two, then you are ahead. That should account for 70% right there.



Assuming a perfectly fair game, that's only 62.5%, not 70%. (And the infinite series still only sums to 2/3.)
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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October 19th, 2011 at 12:10:49 PM permalink
Quote: kp

Regardless of how well you did this morning or yesterday.

Whichever makes you feel better. I'd tend to focus on a "session" particularly if I am ahead that session but had lost earlier. Some might say "I'm on a comeback" meaning I lost earlier but I'm gaining on them and will catch up shortly. No one is going to admit in the middle of a spin that they are thinking of airline tickets and hotel rooms and tips to the valet and paying for some hooker. Just as the casino segregates out your Comps and your gambling; so too do the players.

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