Blackjack: Best stand on a no possible bust?

Quote: IdiotWheel

. This has a player return of a poor -.3377 when simple strategy is applied. How much worse can that get if you stubbornly stand pat with that 6!? thoughts?

-.5404

I fail to see what's ballsy about doing something inane. Ballsy is hitting a hard 18 against a dealer ten. Or splitting ten versus a dealer 6. Both maybe dumb moves, but occasionally they pay off. Standing when you can't bust... you've changed nothing.

Quote: IdiotWheel

These Blackjack appendices are filled with neat tables! I was perusing this one:
http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix5.html

And had another thought. If the goal was to find a best case scenario to stand on a 3-10, there are really two approaches. As discusses above, you could figure out the optimal situation choose to stand when the dealer is most likely to bust and lose.

Alternatively, you could choose a 3-10 player hand in which the player return is already very poor. In this case the ballsy (fine...stupid) stand would just make that poor hand that much worse. This would be the pessimist play.

Looking at the appendix 5 chart: It looks like for single digit player hands, the worst hand is a Player 6 Versus a Dealer 10. This has a player return of a poor -.3377 when simple strategy is applied. How much worse can that get if you stubbornly stand pat with that 6!?

thoughts?

You're looking at the wrong charts. Appendix 9 on WoO is what you want.
For the common 6DH17 game, hitting on player 6 (player holds 4, 2) vs. dealer 10 is about -0.339. Standing is -0.541. If you want to derive the "best case scenario" for standing on a 3-10, look at the Appendix 9 charts and find the row where standing leads to the smallest loss compared to the proper play.

Quote: MathExtremist

You're looking at the wrong charts. Appendix 9 on WoO is what you want.
For the common 6DH17 game, hitting on player 6 (player holds 4, 2) vs. dealer 10 is about -0.339. Standing is -0.541. If you want to derive the "best case scenario" for standing on a 3-10, look at the Appendix 9 charts and find the row where standing leads to the smallest loss compared to the proper play.

His -.3377 came from appx. 5---S17, infinite deck. Nevertheless we agree on -.54.

Right, but the Wiz doesn't have an infinite-deck table for the EV of every action based on player's two vs. upcard (unless I missed it somewhere). If I'm reading properly, the OP wanted to find the "least bad" time to stand on 3-10 vs. dealer X. Not sure why you ever would, but those charts are how you'd answer the question.

Quote: IdiotWheel

I guess the better question would be, WHAT are you giving up by NOT applying simple or perfect strategy when the dealer has 6? Obviously you would do better then 42%. How ever you would still be faced with the possibility of busting yourself, or losing to the dealer.

Well, you are off on that one. You will never bust on a dealer 6 with basic strategy. When you have 3-11, you are taking a "free card". There is no way your hand can get worse (you already have "zero") and you can not bust. But several or many cards will make your hand much, much better. Still, even if you end up with 12, 13, or anything else, you are not going to take another card (following Basic Strategy) so you will never do worse than your 3-11.

Great point cclub.

On Mathextremist's advice I perused the appendix 9 tables.

Working with the first table. I used excel to calculated the delta between the stand and hit expected returns for a dealer 5 and 6. Then I sorted from least to greatest. The first no bust player hand with the lowest delta expectation between hit and stand is: Dealer 6 vs. Player 4,2. Not surprisingly dealer 5 vs player, 4,2 is not too far behind. Im sure some one will chime in if I am interpreting this wrong.

sort excerpt:
DealerPlayer Stand Hit Double Probability Delta
5 10,2 -0.161126 -0.188759 -0.377518 0.00367661 0.027633
5 7,5 -0.157776 -0.190982 -0.381963 0.00088085 0.033206
5 8,4 -0.158944 -0.192389 -0.384778 0.00091915 0.033445
5 9,3 -0.160055 -0.19404 -0.38808 0.00091915 0.033985
6 7,A 0.222598 0.178453 0.356906 0.00091915 0.044145
5 7,A 0.198998 0.151132 0.302263 0.00091915 0.047866
6 10,2 -0.121479 -0.170569 -0.341138 0.00367661 0.04909
6 7,5 -0.118699 -0.173201 -0.346403 0.00091915 0.054502
6 8,4 -0.119502 -0.174273 -0.348546 0.00091915 0.054771
6 9,3 -0.120539 -0.175904 -0.351809 0.00091915 0.055365
5 10,3 -0.160699 -0.254211 -0.508423 0.00367661 0.093512
5 9,4 -0.159657 -0.253758 -0.507517 0.00091915 0.094101
5 7,6 -0.158476 -0.259536 -0.519071 0.00091915 0.10106
5 8,5 -0.158596 -0.259746 -0.519492 0.00088085 0.10115
6 10,3 -0.121086 -0.239032 -0.478064 0.00367661 0.117946
6 9,4 -0.120173 -0.238607 -0.477213 0.00091915 0.118434
6 7,6 -0.122651 -0.246688 -0.493376 0.00088085 0.124037

6 4,2 -0.114844 0.009881 -0.212121 0.00091915 0.124725

6 8,5 -0.119409 -0.244828 -0.489656 0.00091915 0.125419
5 4,2 -0.154631 -0.026761 -0.291219 0.00091915 0.12787

Quote: cclub79

Well, you are off on that one. You will never bust on a dealer 6 with basic strategy.

Well, to be precise, you should actually Hit 10,2 vs. 6 in Single Deck game and Stand Soft 17: http://wizardofodds.com/blackjack/appendix3.html. It is a "fine point in basic strategy" but it is still basic strategy.

Thanks help and pointers guys! This settled a discussion I was having with my wife. If someone like Austin Powers was playing BJ, his unfounded confidence would allow him to stand on any no-bust hand. But what would be the smartest-dumbest play...

Anyway, I will be in Vegas this weekend and I might even try it. Im sure I will get icey glares from people who think that I didnt "take" my card and screwed up the entire cosmos. But now I will be able to explain to them that it really was the smartest play if you intend to stand on a no-bust hand. I am sure to make friends!

Quote: IdiotWheel

But now I will be able to explain to them that it really was the smartest play if you intend to stand on a no-bust hand.

Yep, like shooting your foot with the smallest caliber gun is the smartest play if you've already decided to shoot your own foot...