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Perfect Pai Gow hand

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March 18th, 2011 at 6:16:33 PM permalink
jdominik
Member since: Mar 18, 2011
Threads: 2
Posts: 4
Just wondering - what pai Gow hand will win more then loose or tie? A straight or flush is a great 5 card hand but would loose the 2 card hand. I saw this in Atlantic city where a player had a straight Ace high but had 2-8 on his 2 card hand and thus a push. It seem to me that 2 small pairs win more then 50% of the time. Thoughts?
March 18th, 2011 at 8:44:05 PM permalink
TIMSPEED
Member since: Aug 11, 2010
Threads: 39
Posts: 564
AAAA*KK
In other words, five Aces and a pair of Kings..unbeatable hand.
They say casino's aren't built on winners... No...they're built on ignorance.
March 18th, 2011 at 10:07:18 PM permalink
clarkacal
Member since: Sep 22, 2010
Threads: 41
Posts: 388
AKQ*10 AA
Royal flush with a pair of aces
March 18th, 2011 at 10:14:28 PM permalink
FinsRule
Member since: Dec 23, 2009
Threads: 52
Posts: 779
Quote: jdominik
Just wondering - what pai Gow hand will win more then loose or tie? A straight or flush is a great 5 card hand but would loose the 2 card hand. I saw this in Atlantic city where a player had a straight Ace high but had 2-8 on his 2 card hand and thus a push. It seem to me that 2 small pairs win more then 50% of the time. Thoughts?


Generally an average high hand is a pair of 9's. An average low hand is KQ
April 14th, 2011 at 3:09:30 PM permalink
PGBuster
Member since: Jan 15, 2010
Threads: 12
Posts: 26
IIRC, I read somewhere that Sanford Wong's book says the magic hand is a pair of jacks with an A/8 up.
April 14th, 2011 at 3:32:58 PM permalink
PapaChubby
Member since: Mar 29, 2010
Threads: 9
Posts: 342
I'm not really sure what the OP's question is, but I stumbled across a conundrum while thinking about it.

I assert that it is impossible to devise a hand which has the same probability of winning, losing and tying. This does not seem intuitively obvious to me, but it seems to be the way the math works.

If the probability of the front hand winning is x, and the probability of the back hand winning is y, then the overall probabilities are:

win: x*y
lose: (1-x)*(1-y)
tie: (1-x)*y + (1-y)*x or 1 - x*y - (1-x)*(1-y)

For win=lose=tie=0.333, I think I determine that x and y must be imaginary. Seems weird to me.
April 14th, 2011 at 3:38:47 PM permalink
Doc
Member since: Feb 27, 2010
Threads: 21
Posts: 2824
Quote: PapaChubby
... tie: (1-x)*y + (1-y)*x or 1 - x*y - (1-x)*(1-y) ...

I think you made an algebra/multiplication error on that line. But the solution does appear to involve complex values of x and y.
April 14th, 2011 at 3:58:40 PM permalink
Paigowdan
Member since: Apr 28, 2010
Threads: 54
Posts: 2130
Quote: PGBuster
IIRC, I read somewhere that Sanford Wong's book says the magic hand is a pair of jacks with an A/8 up.


PG - that's the "median" hand or average hand. The dead Center hand.
Gambling doesn't build character, it reveals..no character. But a lot of characters.
April 14th, 2011 at 4:01:09 PM permalink
Paigowdan
Member since: Apr 28, 2010
Threads: 54
Posts: 2130
Quote: clarkacal
AKQ*10 AA
Royal flush with a pair of aces


Correct, best hand, Royal with Aces on top.

The AAAA*/KK hand could indeed push: dealer could have three pairs 66552/KK, and win the two-side copy KK (Dealer wins copies on each side.)
Gambling doesn't build character, it reveals..no character. But a lot of characters.
April 14th, 2011 at 4:52:55 PM permalink
ChesterDog
Member since: Jul 26, 2010
Threads: 0
Posts: 199
Quote: clarkacal
AKQ*10 AA
Royal flush with a pair of aces


This is unbeatable, but wouldn't it push against the dealer's suited AKQJ10 XY, since the dealer's copied royal flush would beat the player's royal flush?
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