Card Craps counting

Discountgambling.net has a section on how to count cards at california craps tables, can anyone vouch for this? Does it work, is the math correct?

Make sure you're at the right version of the game, but yes, you can count. There's a section on WoO on it too.

From the title I thought this may be the best system yet. Forgot about Cali Cards.

"How many dice are left in the bowl?"

Quote: precursor0

Discountgambling.net has a section on how to count cards at california craps tables, can anyone vouch for this? Does it work, is the math correct?

I've always questioned the validity of that argument.

Never heard more of card counting method in craps game. I mostly count cards in blackjack game. And ho can you count cards in craps game. It is a dice game. So in craps game we apply the dice controls methods not the card counting methods of blackjack game.

Quote: fabianbranson

Never heard more of card counting method in craps game. And ho[w] can you count cards in craps game. It is a dice game.

Not in California. Due to the regulations that require all gambling outcomes to have an element of skill, only card games are allowed. (if my understanding is correct). The game can be found here

Quote: MathExtremist

Make sure you're at the right version of the game, but yes, you can count. There's a section on WoO on it too.

That could be what the other poster was referring to when he said California was trying to make craps a game of skill. :)

I suppoe by skill they mean a decision has to be made. I think this is discussed in another thread somewhere, but I cannot for the life of me remember where.

Quote: precursor0

Discountgambling.net has a section on how to count cards at california craps tables, can anyone vouch for this? Does it work, is the math correct?

The site also points out correctly that the ludicrous California system makes a complete hash of so-called independent random events:

"Overview

Card craps is identical to the original game, except that the dice rolls are replaced by two cards dealts from a 5-deck constant shuffling machine (CSM). As most experienced gamblers notice immediately, the odds are a little different because of the shoe. As soon as two cards are dealt from the shoe, the distribution for the next roll changes. This can’t be helped, even if the dealer shuffles the muck into the CSM after every roll. Analysis shows that the average 3-4 rolls buffered in the chute of the CSM actually tilts the game in favor of the don’t pass / don’t come player. Even without counting, the 10x odds don’t pass player has a small edge over the house (about +0.9% of the don’t pass bet). A simple card-counting strategy allows the player to vary the don’t pass (or pass) odds per roll, improving the return to about 1.8% of the flat DC bet. This means for a $5 Don’t Pass bet, you’ll make an average of $.09 per game, laying 10x odds when the count is positive."

and

"Card Craps Source Code
Posted in card craps by stephenhow on September 5, 2010

The card craps players at Viejas definitely lean towards Don’t Pass now, even when I’m not at the table :) The astute players understand that the game is unlike dice craps, and the rolls aren’t quite independent of each other. Yesterday a Don’t player I’ve never seen before started to lecture me on this point before I could tell him I agreed. Then a young couple came and started playing DP and laying odds, like they knew what was going on. When the regulars are playing, at least half the table plays Don’t.

Anyways, I decided to clean up and post my Java source code for card craps, including the CSM model, the roll window, etc. You can download my source code, inspect the models, experiment with the parameters, and verify my results (+1.5% of the flat bet @ 10x Dont’ Pass odds using 3-roll count for the current Viejas shuffler; -3.6% for 10x odds Pass Line player!). I’m posting the source code to show how simple the CSM effect is on the craps game."

Quote: SanchoPanza

That could be what the other poster was referring to when he said California was trying to make craps a game of skill. :)

I think that's what one poster claimed (that they need to make it a game of skill). From some of the things that poster said, I think it's nonsense. I think the poster even claimed that you can make decisions in the game of baccarrat. I wouldn't take any of what that poster says to be fact. There's absolutely no evidence to support his arguments.

EDIT - this is the thread - https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/questions-and-answers/gambling/3773-craps-and-roulette-regulations/4/
the poster never really explains how he arrived at his conclusions- he/she just says they're written vaguely etc... I personally think it can't be serious based on what he/she says as the poster doesn't respond to questions and explain further

Quote: SanchoPanza

The site also points out correctly that the ludicrous California system makes a complete hash of so-called independent random events:

"Overview

Card craps is identical to the original game, except that the dice rolls are replaced by two cards dealts from a 5-deck constant shuffling machine (CSM). As most experienced gamblers notice immediately, the odds are a little different because of the shoe. As soon as two cards are dealt from the shoe, the distribution for the next roll changes. This can’t be helped, even if the dealer shuffles the muck into the CSM after every roll. Analysis shows that the average 3-4 rolls buffered in the chute of the CSM actually tilts the game in favor of the don’t pass / don’t come player. Even without counting, the 10x odds don’t pass player has a small edge over the house (about +0.9% of the don’t pass bet). A simple card-counting strategy allows the player to vary the don’t pass (or pass) odds per roll, improving the return to about 1.8% of the flat DC bet. This means for a $5 Don’t Pass bet, you’ll make an average of $.09 per game, laying 10x odds when the count is positive."

The information sounds really good and it could be true but I have my doubts. I'm pretty sure the casinos have done the math before they introduce the game. Also, since Barona casino (San Diego) mentions the Wizard of Odds site on their pamphlets, then I'm sure there are many San Diegans that have read the Viejas craps flaws and might have tried playing the don'ts. I've played there before and I also see a lot of points made. Also, in order to really find out if this works, you will need to know exactly what model the shuffler is and how many cards are used etc... Information like this, if not correct, can seriously interfere with your decision making while on the craps table. I just personally can't take this to be serious unless it has be verified by some authoritative source(s).

Quote: focd

Information like this, if not correct, can seriously interfere with your decision making while on the craps table. I just personally can't take this to be serious unless it has be verified by some authoritative source(s).

What's hard to take seriously - that the game is dealt as reported, or that the deck depletion effects exist?

Quote: MathExtremist

What's hard to take seriously - that the game is dealt as reported, or that the deck depletion effects exist?

How the shuffler works and how often old cards are sent back to be dealt out again.