HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
Joined: May 29, 2015
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March 22nd, 2017 at 12:49:01 AM permalink
Having a youtube discussion with someone over a roulette variant.

Its called key bet roulette, there is an extra slot on a single zero wheel. Called the key bet. If the ball lands there, it awards a random multiplier, from the following values.
20x, 20x, 25x, 30x, 30x, 35x, 40x, 40x, 45x, 50x, 50x, 100x
If we assume each multiplier is equal chance, and the Return To Player is 95.34%

What is the probability of hitting the keybet slot (its not 1/37).
Last edited by: HeyMrDJ on Mar 22, 2017
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
RS
RS
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March 22nd, 2017 at 3:34:48 AM permalink
Quote: HeyMrDJ

Having a youtube discussion with someone over a roulette variant.

Its called key bet roulette, there is an extra slot on a single zero wheel. Called the key bet. If the ball lands there, it awards a random multiplier, from the following values.
20x, 20x, 25x, 30x, 30x, 35x, 40x, 40x, 45x, 50x, 50x, 100x
If we assume each multiplier is equal chance, and the Return To Player is 94.74%

What is the probability of hitting the keybet slot (its not 1/37).



Wait........what?


First of all -- what value is multiplied?

Even without the "key bet" slot, how do you get a return below 97.29% on a single zero roulette? Oddly enough, the return on double zero roulette is 94.74% (actually a tad lower, due to rounding).


Okay, so I saw a video on youtube on this game. Anyway, there's a "key bet" where you put money on it, and if the key hits, then you get paid that amount. Averages to 40.41666. Also there was a value of "pot", I take it that means a % of each wager gets put into a pot...therefore there's meter movement.

Do you know what the meter movement is?
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HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
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March 22nd, 2017 at 5:07:21 AM permalink
Quote: RS

Wait........what?


First of all -- what value is multiplied?

Even without the "key bet" slot, how do you get a return below 97.29% on a single zero roulette? Oddly enough, the return on double zero roulette is 94.74% (actually a tad lower, due to rounding).


Okay, so I saw a video on youtube on this game. Anyway, there's a "key bet" where you put money on it, and if the key hits, then you get paid that amount. Averages to 40.41666. Also there was a value of "pot", I take it that means a % of each wager gets put into a pot...therefore there's meter movement.

Do you know what the meter movement is?



The value you bet on the key bet is multiplied. The RTP of *JUST* the key bet is 95.34%. Effectively if you didnt bet on the keybet spot at all, this game plays just like double zero roulette.

Currently the pot is fixed at 100x and isnt a progressive. So ignore the pot value for now, and use the 100x value.
Last edited by: HeyMrDJ on Mar 22, 2017
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
GWAE
GWAE
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March 22nd, 2017 at 6:02:15 AM permalink
Quote: HeyMrDJ

Having a youtube discussion with someone over a roulette variant.

Its called key bet roulette, there is an extra slot on a single zero wheel. Called the key bet. If the ball lands there, it awards a random multiplier, from the following values.
20x, 20x, 25x, 30x, 30x, 35x, 40x, 40x, 45x, 50x, 50x, 100x
If we assume each multiplier is equal chance, and the Return To Player is 94.74%

What is the probability of hitting the keybet slot (its not 1/37).



why is it not 1/37. If there are 37 equal spots and 1 of them is the key that would make it 1/37
DJTeddyBear
DJTeddyBear
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March 22nd, 2017 at 6:04:59 AM permalink
Single zero has 37 slots.

The extra key slot makes it 38.

So... 1/38. Or am I missing something?
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HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
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March 22nd, 2017 at 6:11:58 AM permalink
Apologies, yes. You are right, there are 38 slots, but its not 1 in 38 either. There was something to say that the odds are not actually those that are displayed. Also I updated my original post, the RTP for the key bet is actually 95.34%
Last edited by: HeyMrDJ on Mar 22, 2017
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
Romes
Romes
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March 22nd, 2017 at 7:18:57 AM permalink
Quote: HeyMrDJ

...You are right, there are 38 slots, but its not 1 in 38 either...

At this point you're telling us each slot is not a random chance... If each slot is a "random chance" then it would in fact be 1/38, the same as 00 roulette (which in your previous post you said it is to the player if they don't bet the key slot).
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
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March 22nd, 2017 at 7:24:46 AM permalink
Quote: Romes

At this point you're telling us each slot is not a random chance... If each slot is a "random chance" then it would in fact be 1/38, the same as 00 roulette (which in your previous post you said it is to the player if they don't bet the key slot).



No, Im saying the key bet is not equal chance, I am saying the multiplier value is equal chance. IF the key bet was 1/38, and the EV of the keybet is 40.4166r then it would be a +EV play just to bet the max on the keybet.
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
HeyMrDJ
HeyMrDJ
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March 22nd, 2017 at 7:44:12 AM permalink
My logic is that to calculate the chance of hitting it, we divide the EV by the RTP. So 40.4166/0.9534 = 1 in 42.39207
Guess who peed in my Cheerios? Romes did...
Romes
Romes
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March 22nd, 2017 at 7:49:57 AM permalink
Quote: HeyMrDJ

No, Im saying the key bet is not equal chance, I am saying the multiplier value is equal chance. IF the key bet was 1/38, and the EV of the keybet is 40.4166r then it would be a +EV play just to bet the max on the keybet.

If this bet was available on a real roulette wheel, I would think that they couldn't control the randomness (baring dealer shooting, etc, etc ,etc).

So what was the bet you're looking for help to resolve?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.

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