beachbumbabs
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beachbumbabs
Joined: May 21, 2013
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January 17th, 2017 at 7:01:50 PM permalink
Quote: reuben71

TomG, an amateur like yourself commenting is laughable. Having lived on the strip for months, zero BJ, just pulled women from the clubs 5 niites a week, Im pretty sure Id look like a superhero or god to you. Obviously no one else out there gets propositioned much at the tables. Have fun in Peoria or whatever godforsaken hole you live in.



This was pretty condescending and snide, reuben. Tom's a decent guy, smart about AP, and funny. I think you'll find him interesting and conversant with what you're talking about, if you haven't already blown it. He challenged you, you got snotty back, let's move on.
"If the house lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game."
RenoGambler
RenoGambler
Joined: Apr 23, 2016
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January 17th, 2017 at 9:38:53 PM permalink
Quote: Romes

However, I don't think I've seen a $5 single deck game that wasn't 6/5 in a long time.



Haven't been up north in a while, eh? Plenty of $5 3:2 single deck up here. Sadly, the 6:5 disease starting to infect this area as well. Hopefully, it doesn't take hold any time soon.
Variance giveth and variance taketh away.
reuben71
reuben71
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January 18th, 2017 at 1:47:56 AM permalink
Or he was snotty, I challenged him, then you jumped in.

Anyway a prevailing thread here is that BJ is waay to hard for mere mortals . Only the BJ Math Geniuses of the Forum should ever play a single hand. Or its just giving the casino money.

Oddly, I bet Im the only one on here who has 'won the game' (you all wont even know this term) as well my biostats masters is totally useless for this idiots game of course. Since it takes People that Really Understand Blackjack to win.
djatc
djatc
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January 18th, 2017 at 3:11:19 AM permalink
Quote: reuben71

TomG, an amateur like yourself commenting is laughable. Having lived on the strip for months, zero BJ, just pulled women from the clubs 5 niites a week, Im pretty sure Id look like a superhero or god to you. Obviously no one else out there gets propositioned much at the tables. Have fun in Peoria or whatever godforsaken hole you live in.



They asked me how well I understood theoretical physics. I said I had a theoretical degree in physics. They said welcome aboard.
Romes
Romes
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January 18th, 2017 at 7:56:00 AM permalink
Quote: reuben71

...Anyway a prevailing thread here is that BJ is waay to hard for mere mortals . Only the BJ Math Geniuses of the Forum should ever play a single hand. Or its just giving the casino money.

Oddly, I bet Im the only one on here who has 'won the game' (you all wont even know this term) as well my biostats masters is totally useless for this idiots game of course. Since it takes People that Really Understand Blackjack to win.

I hope you're not referring to me, as I said every step of the way that I was attempting to help you... Blackjack has been "solved" for a long time now, and there aren't "variations" on how to beat the game. You learn to count, get a bankroll, define a bet spread, calculate your EV for the rules/number of hands per hour you're getting, and then you play and play and play until you get to the long run (~75K hands) where your EV +/- SD is guaranteed to be positive. Thus, you can not lose at the game. So yes, I've "won" at the game of blackjack, and to boot, I can prove it.

You've yet to answer my simple questions showing you know how to beat the game:

1) What is the full rule set and House Edge for the game you typically play.
2) What is your exact bet spread for this game.
3) How many hands per hour do you usually get at this game?
4) What is your EV/hour at this game?

You don't have to be a "math guru" to answer these at all... You simply have to know how to beat the game, which the information is widely available and I even linked you to my 3 A-Z articles hosted on this site that explains all of the questions above.


Quote: djatc

+1
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
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January 18th, 2017 at 8:21:00 AM permalink
Quote: reuben71

Its not a thrill to win $500 a nite, but sickens me to lose $500. I think this is because I fundamentally think gambling is frivolous. IVe never placed any other wager. I avg $100-200/wk playing maybe 3-5 hours. This is less than 1/10 my actual income. I mostly play to socialize in a new city, recuperating from injury/illness. [Problem is its only gamblers in the casino haha.] Anyway, this seems like 'beating the odds'. Ive never been more than $500 in the hole before making it up by short sessions, wonging, and quit when up $50-100 until Im 'even'. I never count winnings, only the hole. Is this good, avg, boring results or what?

$40/hr with an average bet of $10 is a "hot streak" for basic counting (<102% edge).

You're averaging 104-108% depending on how many hands/hr (you see on average) and how much wonging/observing you are doing. Luck is a MUCH bigger factor in your results than the strategy fine-tuning you are doing (100.5-102.0%).

Have you made enough profits to jump to $10-50? (e.g. $8,000 for 400x average bet of $20).

Hopefully you can make $8K-16K before your first serious downstreak.

Good luck.

-----
One day I made $900+ spreading $5-25. Tried & tried but couldn't crack $1,000.
Next day, I lost -$1,200 with the same strategy. Ouch. I was kicking myself for a week (or more).

I was making about $100/day back then...on gambling vacation trips (with a $2K-3K bankroll). Most days spreading $5-25 were +/- $400. Usually an hour would be within +/- $75. However, my daily expenses were $150-200/day (including rent back home etc...), so it was definitely a hobby. Not sustainable as a sole source of income (unless I committed more money to a gambling bankroll).

Basically I just blew all my BJ profits on craps, roulette, carnival games, food, rooms, etc... and tried to have a free vacation.

----
About 20 years ago, a casino employee told me they weren't as afraid of players who bet big...as they were of people who could start with $20-100 and leave with $20K-100K in a "hot run". A HL supervisor in downtown casino who was about to retire...used to be a BJ player, and said his biggest run was $800? - $65,000 (I'm forgetting the exact numbers, about 80x). It's extremely hard to walk away with 100X your daily bankroll in one session.

For fun, I tried chasing hot runs (Doesn't count if you don't leave the table.)
Best I did from $20 was $1,100 top, leaving table at $950 (47.5x).
Best from $10 was leaving the table with about $250.
Best from $5 was about $120.

A conservative way to play is to bet "full Kelly"...but a really "hot run" may be helped by over-betting Kelly on hot streaks, and backing off when cold. Some of my best runs are when counts are getting progressively worse (...which means 10s are coming out from the deck faster than average).

With "normal luck", overbetting Kelly is highly likely to lead to long-term losses (And I hear many pros stick to quarter-Kelly or half-Kelly - An early bout of "bad luck" is apt to cut your bankroll in half, reducing your team hourly-rate in half).

But in the short-term, LUCK is KING.

....and hopefully luck gets you to a six/seven/eight-figure bankroll.

-----
Technically, when you aggressively press & regress, you are trading (1) possibly some EV (2) higher RoR ... for (3) more likelihood of a "hot run". People do this in stocks - trade like a "mad man" below $200K, then switch to a more conservative strategy above $200K. The idea being if you lose your money, you can raise another starting stake (also called "implied bankroll" in gambling).

It's like starting a business. Most entrepreneurs will tell you that they were dumb-f***ing lucky in their first company. In hindsight, they were pretty clueless, made lots of mistakes, but everything turned out hunky-dory.

------
With a larger bankroll, professional BJ teams are trying to make a little each day. They want 2x-4x their bankroll (not 50x-100x bankroll), and a good hourly wage. From what I heard, the MIT teams averaged about $50/hr including all training & travel time (However, there is some incentive to quote a low number...)

When I day-trade, I aim for +0.25-0.5%/day. Doesn't sound like much, but in 250 trading days (a year), it's +87-248%/yr. +1%/day was just too hard (since I'm not Warren Buffet) +1,103%/yr.
Last edited by: mamat on Jan 18, 2017
reuben71
reuben71
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January 18th, 2017 at 12:14:24 PM permalink
romes and mamat, thx for comments, still to read through all. btw 'winning the game' is a finance term nothing to do with 21.

I may do the math on 'my EV' as some insist but it is published data so I disagree its needed. My chance of doubling exceed ROR almost 2 to 1 last I researched. Id need to assess win rate, hands/hr etc with the idiots coming and going, but this is also published.

My problem is I waste too much time getting out of a hole instead of leaving. I only count losses-once in black again I dont track winnings. If I lost a few thousand in a month, ever, Id probably quit since losing is not fun and Im playing for fun. There are better ways to make money and 21 can not compete. Its just a time drain really.

Clearly using 1-5 instead of 1-8 SD/DD gives me more and smaller winning sessions by decreasing variance. Ive not seen higher spreads pay off unless hours go by or more and deeper losses are tolerated. Waiting for high counts and then losing most hands is a realistic occurrence. I guess crunching 'my' numbers could give me confidence to go to $25 or 1-10. I just hate losing $1000 more than I love winning $1000 so whats the point?

Regardless, I know I have a 'winning system' because this is published data, born out by my playing HILO sporadically over 20 years in the black, and 6mo of KO in the black. Unless the long run means multiple life times.
mamat
mamat
Joined: Jul 13, 2015
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January 18th, 2017 at 1:22:07 PM permalink
Quote: reuben71

Regardless, I know I have a 'winning system' because this is published data, born out by my playing HILO sporadically over 20 years in the black, and 6mo of KO in the black. Unless the long run means multiple life times.

Depends on whether you want a "winning system' or you want to win $10 million.

For some games, "long run" is not achievable in human lifetimes (look at "NO" in video poker).
For many slot machines which I play, the machines will disappear from casino floors way before I could reach "long run".
...which is a major fault of most analyses I see.

A 'winning system' which makes $40/hr may mean very little to someone who's day job pays $500-1,000/hr (much less someone who has an 8-9 figure net worth, as their investments make 7-8 figures/yr). Winning $1,000 probably means very little to many of the VP players in this forum who are chasing $20K, $100K, etc... royals. In Nov 2009, i saw a guy playing at the Bellagio who hit a dealt royal on 3-play $100 VP for $1.2 million (TDB). Staff said he won $3 million that weekend - $2 million on Friday, and $200K five times on Sunday.

So look at (1) +EV (2) +EV/hr (3) "overall win" - gross vs. net profit (4) how much you enjoy the time.

A friend from graduate school who won the WSOP main event...was the first one to explain RoR to me, and that BJ counters are called "mechanics". Sit there for hours & hours waiting for good cards...and make 1/2 bet/hr.

Many pros call "counting cards"..."beating a house game" (It's kind of like "first base"). As most move on to poker in private games. Easier money. Or advanced methods on "house games." Team approaches. Day-trading stocks. Real estate rental properties. Wall Street ultra-fast algorithm trading. Etc...

...from what I hear in 2016-17, the pro who just "counts cards" is a dead (or almost-dead) semi-mythical creature.
Romes
Romes
Joined: Jul 22, 2014
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January 18th, 2017 at 2:09:02 PM permalink
There's a lot of concerning things in your reply though...

Quote: reuben71

...I may do the math on 'my EV' as some insist but it is published data so I disagree its needed. My chance of doubling exceed ROR almost 2 to 1 last I researched. Id need to assess win rate, hands/hr etc with the idiots coming and going, but this is also published.

If you've never assessed your EV then you've never ran your numbers telling you if your spread is even profitable. Trust me when I say there's a big diff of just betting $5 till the count is TC +5 then betting $25 vs betting $5 and doubling your bet until your max is out at TC +3. One "wins" (barely), and one does not is the big difference.

Averaging and estimating the number of hands per hour should be joke easy for a person such as yourself, who's played/counted for ~20 years. Whether the table is full, empty, or half, you should easily know whether or not you're getting 60 hands per hour or 100 hands per hour. To not have this skill mastered (which takes no practice just experience) 20 years down the road is a big red flag that perhaps you're a bit overconfident in your game.

Quote: reuben71

My problem is I waste too much time getting out of a hole instead of leaving. I only count losses-once in black again I dont track winnings. If I lost a few thousand in a month, ever, Id probably quit since losing is not fun and Im playing for fun. There are better ways to make money and 21 can not compete. Its just a time drain really.

To a counter, you play for the long run. Whether you're in a hole tonight makes no difference so long as you're playing well and it doesn't affect your ability to play. Leaving in the middle of a big loss means nothing to your bankroll and the game. Also, to not keep track of your wins and losses (as well as average bet, hands per hour, EV, AV, and standard deviations over time) is a huge mistake. You can surely say you're in the black until you're blue in the face, but especially with 20 years of play there's just absolutely no way you can remember all of your winning sessions vs losing sessions enough to make that an accurate statement. We lie to ourselves because of innate human confirmation bias, but numbers my friend... numbers do not lie.

In the end we're all doing it to pass time as it's something we at least moderately enjoy... However you still need to make the clear definition at the end of the day: "Are you trying to actually make money out of playing?" Regardless if it's $100 per month of $5,000 per month, if your answer is yes to this, then you MUST KNOW a lot of the things I've been pointing out to you this entire thread. And again, not trying to sound mean but honest, it's fairly apparent at this point you don't really know them. It's not a lot of work to run your EV for a game. It's not a lot of work to keep a simple excel sheet with basic information... yet these simple things are the crux of having a winning game.

Quote: reuben71

Clearly using 1-5 instead of 1-8 SD/DD gives me more and smaller winning sessions by decreasing variance. Ive not seen higher spreads pay off unless hours go by or more and deeper losses are tolerated. Waiting for high counts and then losing most hands is a realistic occurrence. I guess crunching 'my' numbers could give me confidence to go to $25 or 1-10. I just hate losing $1000 more than I love winning $1000 so whats the point?

A lot of red flags here... Your 1-5 spread does not give you "more smaller" winning sessions. It does decrease your variance, but it also definitely decreases your hourly EV... to a point where you're not even profitable anymore. With that logic... Why not simply flat bet 1 unit at all times? You'll have the LEAST amount of variance and according to your logic even more small wins. Of course with bigger spreads also comes more variance, but again the flip side is that is will definitely INCREASE your hourly EV (at least to a point where you have a winning game). If you understand bankroll management and RoR then you can find out what the MAX is you can bet while still having a completely dismal chance of going broke. It sounds like you haven't defined either and quite possibly don't know what your max bet "could" be. If you're going to sit at that table once/twice per week, and your bankroll can support a bigger bet, then you're literally costing yourself money every hand dealt not to be betting more.

Spreads that are too small do not overcome the house edge because the bulk of the true count frequencies hover around -1 to 1, and even in a "decent" game below .5% (say .4% HE) you 'barely' have any edge and are making anything out of TC +1. Thus, if this is where you spend most of the time according to the TC Frequencies (all proven pending penetration by simulation) your small bet at TC +5 that you see 1.65 times per 100 hands doesn't make up for the losses at the lower level (-1 to 1) which you see 64 times per 100 hands.

Quote: reuben71

Regardless, I know I have a 'winning system' because this is published data, born out by my playing HILO sporadically over 20 years in the black, and 6mo of KO in the black. Unless the long run means multiple life times.

Again, saying "I know I do" without being able to prove it to yourself is worthless. And again, what published data? Where is this data? You already admitted to not keeping stats on your game, so how could this possibly be published/proven on paper somewhere?

The long run takes people different lengths of time to get to pending on how often they play, the average hands per hour, etc.

At Casino A, Joe might get 60 hands per hour and play 2 hours per week. That's 120 hands per week, and if 75K hands is the average "long run" then it'll take him 625 weeks, or 12 YEARS to see the long run.

At Casino B, John plays 100 hands per hour and plays 6 hours per week. That's 600 hands per week, and doing the same math it takes him 125 weeks, or 2.4 years to see the long run.

Thus, if you don't play that often or that many hands per hour, don't keep track of any stats, and combine that with a dismal spread and unfortunately what seems like a non-winning game, then it would be exceedingly plausible that you are still in fact in a state of variance and have not yet hit the long run. Seriously, look at some examples:

If you wong out at TC -2, and play a regular poorer 3/2 DD game (~.66% HE), and have your max bet out by TC +3 with a 1-5 spread ($5-$25) that results in about $1/hour... accounting for NO mistakes, which we ALL make. You're not making any money... Hell, let's look at what 20 years of this at 5 hours per week looks like:

AvgBet: 7.04
AvgAdv (ASSUMING you play with an edge): 1%
OriginalSD = 1.15 * AvgBet = 1.15 * 7.04 = 8.10

So 5 hours per week, and let's say you get an average 75 hands per hour, comes out to be 375 hands per week, or 19,500 hands per year... at 20 years that comes out to a grand total of 390,000 hands.

EV(x hands) = (AvgBet * x)*(AvgAdv)
SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x) * OriginalSD

EV(390,000 hands) = (7.04 * 390,000)*(.01) = 27,456.
SD(390,000 hands) = Sqrt(390,000) * OriginalSD = 5,058.45... 3SD (99% confidence) = 15,175.35

So ASSUMING you're playing correctly (which again a lot of red flags indicating otherwise in this thread) after 20 YEARS you could expect to win $27,456 +/- $15,175.35... Which would come out to $1372.8 per year, and $114.4 per month... Yet in this thread alone you're claiming you make $100-$200 per week.

Using simple math, do you see how we can tell that these numbers do not add up?
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
reuben71
reuben71
Joined: Jan 17, 2017
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January 23rd, 2017 at 4:54:22 PM permalink
Interesting week of 10-15 hours. Went back up to 1-8 but on DD at 0.486, instead of SD 0.018-0.320 HE. Per usual, 2 hours of losing then 2 minutes of winning patterns, but finished in black ~60% of sessions. About $300. Ive had about 6 weeks in past 6mo in the red. Before that I visited vegas 1-2/yr and never left in the red. Every +1 increases my edge 0.6 in KO vs HE so I dont need complexities beyond this. Im interested though in the manner of EV- hand/hr and count frequencies are problematic to cite though, due to wonging.

1. Where are exact tables for #decks/rules for HILO? I just see generic tables not specific to #decks/rules. I play DD DAS DA NRSA NS H17 at 0.486. Used to play same at SD, wow, often though NDAS.

romes, read KO blackjack or at least what Wattenberg say about it. The math is published and it is an elegant short cut to HILO results. Thats why I re-learned KO not HILO went started ~daily 6mo back. With KO, RC=TC. On HILO I dont like the uncertainty of estimated decks which makes 'TC' your best guess of TC or 'BGTC'. Its true there isnt much printed about KO though so hard to get more KO indices or talk shop.

2. do you play lucky ladies at 7+? I do on KO but KO counts 7s. HILO doesnt.

3. I am sick when its a good count, all the other idiots at the table get all the BJs. I think busy tables systematically dilute the effect of the count. What is the ideal # players and why? I like solo, or 1- 2 others so I can wong out/in.

4. On hands/hr, this is hard to estimate as I wong in/out a lot on DD. Mine is about 40-60/hr Id say. This can skew all results such as the EV you calculated for your/my odds as the count frequencie changed.

5. do you hedge for possibility of DD/SP on your max bet or correlating to count? I find spread 1-6 or 1-8, I have too much on the table due to DD/SP opportunities. For this reason I prefer 1-5.

6. where/how to sim so I can get exact KO or HILO indices for exact conditions? I have qfit and used to use SPSS long ago.

7. on EV, bet sizing- I dont really have a bank roll. I dont like losing more than $300/few hours/nite at $5 or 10 tables so its a short leash. Should I just make up a bank roll of $10000? Id have quit BJ long before I lose $10k on this idiots game. I think my bets inferentially declare a bank roll, since avg bet is $10 on the $5 tables, or $20 on the tens.

Im interested in thoughtful input. Not hearing how stupid or lucky I am. I am 1 in 50000 or so intelligent. This may be why I note poor shuffling and cards clumping. Each session or so lll call out a card just for fun, correct 75% or more just by being observant. Thanks

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