Blackjack and Dealer Tells

Long time listener, first time caller... er, something like that. Anyway, thanks for all the great information you've put out there Wizard. It's all greatly appreciated and utilized (at least by me).

I have a quick question about dealer tells in blackjack and how they might improve a player advantage. Assume the following:

6 decks
Stand on soft 17
Double after split, double any two cards
No surrender (very important for this discussion I think)

Now assume I have a DEAD tell on a dealer, and I am absolutely sure 100% of the time when the dealer has another 10 count card under their up 10 count card. So I am able to differentiate every time when the dealer is holding exactly 20, or 19 and worse.

How does my mathematical advantage improve under the following conditions:

1. If I only use this information when I have 16 (hitting all 16's vs. a dealer 20, standing on all 16's vs. any other card).
2. If I use this information when holding either 15 or 16 (hitting all 15's and 16's vs. a dealer 20, standing on all 16's vs. any other card).

Also, how would having this information change the optimal strategy if I didn't have to worry about being flagged for unusual play or heat from casino staff? Besides vs. 15 and 16, what's the best way to put this information to use? And how would the surrender option, if available, be utilized to make this game even more +ev for the player?

I know I threw a lot at you, hope it's not too overwhelming. Thanks in advance!!

I know I threw a lot at you, hope it's not too overwhelming. Thanks in advance!!

What's overwhelming is that you are dumb enough to think you have a tell. LOL

Quote: buzzpaff

I know I threw a lot at you, hope it's not too overwhelming. Thanks in advance!!

What's overwhelming is that you are dumb enough to think you have a tell. LOL

I just flew back home this morning from tahoe, in bed by 3 am. I wanted to catch up on what I missed. This is a new member. What the hell kind of remark is that. You and I both agree on the answer but we differ on the response. How bout toning the f--k down and give him a civil answer!

This is all theoretical, Buzz. Not saying I've found a dealer that has a neon light on her forehead or anything. I'm just wondering how much that information would be worth to the player, that's it.

It would be worth as much as my Roulette system. And yes, I do take PayPal. LOL

Seriously one of the Math experts will come to your rescue and minute now.

You wouldn't save much on the above plays, which are basic strategy anyway. You could save money by not doubling on 11 when you know the dealer has 20, and doubling on 10 when you know they don't have twenty. There's probably more advanced strategy deviations that I'm not aware of. I'm not sure that standing on 15 when you know they don't have twenty is the right play.

Yeah the 15 is one I'm not sure about either, but not doubling on 11 might even an even bigger edge, and one I should have considered before. Nice catch Teddy.

And Buzz, I'm just getting the math right before my buddy Clark and I hit up this place:

I think a basic strategy for a double exposure BJ game would be of help to you

Quote: only1choice

I just flew back home this morning from tahoe, in bed by 3 am. I wanted to catch up on what I missed. This is a new member. What the hell kind of remark is that. You and I both agree on the answer but we differ on the response. How bout toning the f--k down and give him a civil answer!

This is all too common here and is one of my pet peeves. When a new member is driven away for simply asking a question as some have been, it's not only the Wizard's loss it's everyone's loss.


Welcome to the forum DegenCentral and thanks for the funny video.

Degen had no problem with my remarks. I would tone the F--k if there was a need too. But there was not !

In my game 'Burn 20 Blackjack', you know when the dealer does not have a 10-value card underneath. If you look at the strategy for that game then it will give you the right plays for your scenario. From memory, it's something like:-

Stand on 15 & 16.
Split 3's and 7's
Stand on Soft 18
Double 10

(against a 10 with a non-10 hole card).

DEGEN You have just got your answer from Geoff Hall. He is the inventor of SWItCH blackjack and the newest BJ winning game,
FREE BET. Use search to read that thread as I am not computer literate.

Quote: buzzpaff

Degen had no problem with my remarks. I would tone the F--k if there was a need too. But there was not !

A newbie is most likely going to feel intimidated by a frequent veteran contributer.

Hey I put LOL after my remark. Main intent is to keep newbies pinned up on first page. Too often a newbie asks a question and then the thread goes off front page and unanswered. Sorry if you don't see it that way. i will tone it down a little in the future.

Quote: buzzpaff

Hey I put LOL after my remark. Main intent is to keep newbies pinned up on first page. Too often a newbie asks a question and then the thread goes off front page and unanswered. Sorry if you don't see it that way. i will tone it down a little in the future.

Thanks you for your followup response. I apologize for the stong language. I see your point.

No problem. Wait until I post about the Sasquash I saw in Blackhawk on Thursday. Maybe the forest fires drove him from the woods.

And yes I do have pix in my cell phone. Will have my daughter post them tomorrow.

Switch thanks so much for the help! Post is here if anyone else was looking

It would appear that chart is the perfect basic strat for what I was asking in all 10-value situations (obviously things like hitting 12 vs. a 4 wouldn't apply, though I found it interesting).

Everything Switch said is correct, but you actually split 2's as well as 3's, 7's, 8's, and 9's. Stand on hard 15 is correct, as is stand on soft 18, and double 10.

So I guess I amend my previous question, and ask someone to come up with the player edge for the following:

1. Standing on 16, stand on soft 18
2. Standing on 15 & 16, stand on soft 18
3. Full value (Split 2's, 3's, 7's, 8's, 9's; stand on 15 & 16, stand on soft 18, double 10)

Obviously any application makes it a big +ev game for the player, but my question is how much.

Burn 20 sounds like a pretty interesting game. I would play that if I had the opportunity. At first it seemed pushing when dealer gets 22 isn't enough to overcome the player advantage when dealer burns natural 20's and suited BJ's, then I remembered the dealer can still DRAW to 20 or 21. It would seem weird to have the check TWICE with a ten up.

This also reminded me of how much I hate 21+3. The only BJ sidebet I've dealt is 21+3, and what sucks about it, is the fact that it's a game within a game. Needing to look at not only their cards, but my upcard as well throws off the rhythm too much. Burn 20, along with Switch, seem like the variation wouldn't be that bad to deal.

Quote: DegenCentral

Now assume I have a DEAD tell on a dealer, and I am absolutely sure 100% of the time when the dealer has another 10 count card under their up 10 count card. So I am able to differentiate every time when the dealer is holding exactly 20, or 19 and worse.

I suppose this is an interesting thought exercise, but unless you're playing somewhere that the dealer actually looks at the hole card and isn't using a peeker or an electronic checker that's all it is. And if you do have a situation where the dealer actually looks and you are certain of what they saw I'd be very careful exploiting it, because that sounds an awful lot like collusion and you could wind up in a bit of trouble over it. I wouldn't expect this to be seen the same as other AP techniques like hole-carding.

Quote: ewjones080

This also reminded me of how much I hate 21+3. The only BJ sidebet I've dealt is 21+3, and what sucks about it, is the fact that it's a game within a game. Needing to look at not only their cards, but my upcard as well throws off the rhythm too much.

The thing about +3 that I think slows the game is all the players tossing nickels to each other to play each others bet, and the confusion about how to divide up the spoils after a win. But as for dealing the game itself it's my favorite side bet. Are you having problems spotting the winning poker hands?