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Term limits domestically and abroad

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December 1st, 2011 at 10:56:55 AM permalink
pacomartin
Member since: Jan 14, 2010
Threads: 547
Posts: 6210
You can vote for more than one choice in the poll

When discussing term limits for senators and representatives in the USA, it is helpful to know that the country faced at least two serious challenges for a benign president for life. One was in 1908 when the very popular President Teddy Roosevelt considered running for a third term. The second was obviously when President Franklin Roosevelt ran for a 3rd and 4th term, and then died within a matter of weeks after his final inauguration. Most people consider WWII to be a worthy exception to normal politics.

Had Teddy run a 3rd time, most people think that given his youth and popularity he would have been elected a 4th and 5th time to carry him through the rest of his life.

In 1908, the President of Mexico (Porfirio Diaz) had won 7 of the last 8 elections, with the remaining one won by a hand picked candidate, with Diaz the power behind the presidency. His only opponent for the last four elections was Nicolás Zúñiga y Miranda, an eccentric who was considered a national joke.

Diaz maintained control through manipulation of votes, but also through simple violence and assassination of his opponents. His administration became famous for their suppression of civil society and public revolts. While not president for the entire time, Diaz was essentially that most powerful man in Mexico since the early death of Benito Juarez on July 18, 1872. Like Mussolini, he is also credited with maintaining a kind of efficient economy, a Pax Porfirio, often called "The Porfirato". The revolution of 1910 was so devastating that the population remained steady at roughly 15 million for twenty years (although the census may not have been accurate).

In February 1908, President Diaz was now in his late 70’s when he agreed to an interview with an American magazine. While the interview is obsequious, I’ve always felt that the interviewer was subtly giving Diaz the rope he needed to hang himself. The interview was translated into Spanish and widely circulated in Mexico. When Diaz implied that he was willing to retire, competing political parties developed serious candidates. Instead Diaz delayed the 1908 election for two more years, ran and was elected for a final time in 1910, and within a year the country broke into a massive civil war at the cost of over a million lives. Diaz died in exile in Paris in 1915.

Quote: Creelman Interview of Mexican president Diaz, 1908

"You know that in the United States we are troubled about the question of electing a President for three terms?"

He smiled and then looked grave, nodding his head gently and pursing his lips. It is hard to describe the look of concentrated interest that suddenly came into his strong, intelligent countenance.

"Yes, yes, I know," he replied. "It is a natural sentiment of democratic peoples that their officials should be often changed. I agree with that sentiment."

It seemed hard to realize that I was listening to a soldier who had ruled a republic continuously for more than a quarter of a century with a personal authority unknown to most kings. Yet he spoke with a simple and convincing manner, as one whose place was great and secure beyond the need of hypocrisy.

"It is quite true that when a man has occupied a powerful office for a very long time he is likely to begin to look upon it as his personal property, and it is well that a free people should guard themselves against the tendencies of individual ambition.

"Yet the abstract theories of democracy and the practical, effective application of them are often necessarily different--that is when you are seeking for the substance rather than the mere form.

"I can see no good reason why President Roosevelt should not be elected again if a majority of the American people desire to have him continue in office. I believe that he has thought more of his country than of himself. He has done and is doing a great work for the United States, a work that will cause him, whether he serves again or not, to be remembered in history as one of the great Presidents. I look upon the trusts as a great and real power in the United States, and President Roosevelt has had the patriotism and courage to defy them. Mankind understands the meaning of his attitude and its bearing upon the future. He stands before the world as a states-man whose victories have been moral victories. ...

"Here in Mexico we have had different conditions. I received this Government from the hands of a victorious army at a time when the people were divided and unprepared for the exercise of the extreme principles of democratic government. To have thrown upon the masses the whole responsibility of government at once would have produced conditions that might have discredited the cause of free government.


Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Edgar, betrayed son of Gloucester in King Lear
December 1st, 2011 at 11:33:51 AM permalink
ThatDonGuy
Member since: Jun 22, 2011
Threads: 6
Posts: 236
Actually, in theory it's possible to get around the two-term Presidential limit, although it would be up to the Supreme Court to make the final determination - plus someone who can be trusted to fall on his/her political sword.

A strict reading of the 22nd Amendment says that you cannot be elected President more than twice. It sets no condition on becoming President through other means. This means that anyone who has already served two full terms as President is still "constitutionally eligible to be President" (just not eligible to be elected President), and is therefore eligible to be elected Vice-President. Therefore, if a two-termer is elected Vice-President, and the elected President then resigns (which is why I mentioned "someone who can be trusted to fall on his/her sword" - nothing stops the President from deciding to keep the job and ruining the entire plan), the two-termer now serves a third term.

Keep in mind that this depends on the Supreme Court not ruling that, "Well, it says 'elected', but the intent is to keep someone from being President after already serving two terms." (Almost certainly, the response would be, "If the intent was to keep someone from being President after serving two full terms, then why did they bother specifically saying 'elected'?")
December 1st, 2011 at 11:49:03 AM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Nov 11, 2009
Threads: 218
Posts: 7281
Didn't Teddy eventually run, later on, using a third party?
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December 1st, 2011 at 2:06:46 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Nov 2, 2009
Threads: 153
Posts: 2912
I'd like to see term limits for Congress, say 6 for the HoR and 2 for the Senate. Realistically we would need to grandfather current members, just like they did with POTUS. Current members would like that idea. But make it like the US Army does for their officers: Up or Out.
"The Roman Empire wasn't planned, but neither did it 'just happen.'"
December 1st, 2011 at 2:23:17 PM permalink
pacomartin
Member since: Jan 14, 2010
Threads: 547
Posts: 6210
Quote: Nareed
Didn't Teddy eventually run, later on, using a third party?


Yes he did. He picked a successor, and then he left the country for two years and went hunting. When he returned he wanted to be president again. But the Republican part wouldn't nominate him. He formed his own party, but as usually the case that only splits the vote, and Woodrow Wilson won for two terms beginning in 1912.

There is a strong belief that George Washington set the unofficial two term limit. But there is also evidence that he was too sick to run for a third term. He died only 2.5 years after leaving the presidency. In any case, none of the other founding fathers ran for a third term. In between the founding fathers and Teddy Roosevelt, the only president who considered running three times was Grant, and he didn't have strong support. Grant was only age 49 when he left office, but he was at the lowest point in his popularity, and he had a serious drinking problem.

The decision to word the amendment to limit the president to only winning two elections is a testament to either stupidity, or naivete. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out you could run as VP, and then have the winning president resign upon election.
Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Edgar, betrayed son of Gloucester in King Lear
December 1st, 2011 at 2:38:27 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Nov 2, 2009
Threads: 153
Posts: 2912
Quote: pacomartin
The decision to word the amendment to limit the president to only winning two elections is a testament to either stupidity, or naivete. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out you could run as VP, and then have the winning president resign upon election.


Unconstitutional. No person shall run for VP who does not meet the requirements to be POTUS.
"The Roman Empire wasn't planned, but neither did it 'just happen.'"
December 1st, 2011 at 2:38:28 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Nov 11, 2009
Threads: 218
Posts: 7281
Quote: pacomartin
He formed his own party, but as usually the case that only splits the vote, and Woodrow Wilson won for two terms beginning in 1912.


So we have Teddy to blame for Wilson... :)

Quote:
There is a strong belief that George Washington set the unofficial two term limit. But there is also evidence that he was too sick to run for a third term. He died only 2.5 years after leaving the presidency. In any case, none of the other founding fathers ran for a third term.


The Founders had lives outside politics, too. Current politicians are career. That matters a great deal.

Quote:
In between the founding fathers and Teddy Roosevelt, the only president who considered running three times was Grant, and he didn't have strong support. Plus he had a serious drinking problem.


Ah, but didn't Grover Cleveland run three times? After being defeated for re-election, he ran again four years later and won. He's the only man to serve two non-consecutive terms (and probably the one with the oddest name, to boot).

Of course others may have run more than two times. Nixon did.

The problem with the current system in Congress is that the representatives' job is to stay in office, more or less. So that means voting pork to their constituents, and to hell with the country. I'm amazed there's any turnover at all. The Senate is different, because due to the long terms senators can dedicate part of their term to govern rather then campaign.

Term limits would help, but they'd ahve to be absolute. That is, any person having served X number of terms in the House cannot be elected to the House again in another district. Mexican "Diputados," who are limited to a single 3 year term, go district-hopping and get elected again and again.
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December 1st, 2011 at 3:03:46 PM permalink
pacomartin
Member since: Jan 14, 2010
Threads: 547
Posts: 6210
Quote: AZDuffman
Unconstitutional. No person shall run for VP who does not meet the requirements to be POTUS.


But that is the question. The amendment only says you cannot be elected president. It is different than someone who is not native born running for VP. That is unconstitutional, since they are not eligible to be president.

There is no question that someone would challenge the decision in court, but it is not at all clear how the court would rule.
Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Edgar, betrayed son of Gloucester in King Lear
December 1st, 2011 at 3:13:52 PM permalink
Nareed
Member since: Nov 11, 2009
Threads: 218
Posts: 7281
Quote: pacomartin
But that is the question. The amendment only says you cannot be elected president. It is different than someone who is not native born running for VP. That is unconstitutional, since they are not eligible to be president.


That should be changed, too.

At that Mexico had an even more restrictive law. In order to run for president, the candidate had to be native in the third generation. That's been scrapped for merely native born.

Quote:
There is no question that someone would challenge the decision in court, but it is not at all clear how the court would rule.


Someone start a campaign for Obama to dump Biden in favor of Bill Clinton. That would make the election much more entertaining :)
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December 1st, 2011 at 3:19:06 PM permalink
pacomartin
Member since: Jan 14, 2010
Threads: 547
Posts: 6210
Quote: Nareed
So we have Teddy to blame for Wilson... :)

Ah, but didn't Grover Cleveland run three times? After being defeated for re-election, he ran again four years later and won. He's the only man to serve two non-consecutive terms (and probably the one with the oddest name, to boot).Of course others may have run more than two times. Nixon did.

Term limits would help, but they'd ahve to be absolute. That is, any person having served X number of terms in the House cannot be elected to the House again in another district. Mexican "Diputados," who are limited to a single 3 year term, go district-hopping and get elected again and again.


I wasn't specific enough. As long as you keep losing you can run as often as you want. But once you win twice, you are now prohibited from running a 3rd time. Grant won two elections, and considered running for a third. Teddy Roosevelt actually only one a single election. He was first elected as VP, but the president was assassinated only weeks into his term.

Under the present law, if you serve more than 2 years of someone else's term, you can only run for president one time.

I did not know that people went district hopping in Mexico. In Oaxaca, which has a very strong old boy network, it seemed like they all lived in one tiny neighborhood. They took turns in various positions, including mayor, governor, senator, etc.
Wine loved I deeply, dice dearly -Edgar, betrayed son of Gloucester in King Lear
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