What, Me Worry? UARS Impact Prediction Contest

As of 7:30am VT (Vegas Time), here is NASA's latest:

Quote: NASA

There is a low probability any debris that survives re-entry will land in the United States, but the possibility cannot be discounted because of this changing rate of descent.

We'll know tonight. Get your butterfly nets, and fire extinguishers out...

Update from the NASA web page about UARS:

"Re-entry is expected between 11 p.m. Friday, Sept. 23, and 3 a.m., Sept. 24, Eastern Daylight Time (3 a.m. to 7 a.m. GMT). During that time period, the satellite will be passing over Canada, Africa and Australia, as well as vast areas of the Pacific, Atlantic and Indian oceans."

Quote: Toes14

...Canada,

Get thee ready, thecesspit and boymimbo!!

Quote: Toes14

...Indian ocean

But what if it punches a hole straight through to Lake Erie? ;)

Quote: Face

But what if it punches a hole straight through to Lake Erie? ;)

Then it will have setteld one argument :P

NASA puts the reentry somewhere in the Pacific off the coast of Canada or the US (edit: 31N, 219E). Vancouver takes the lead!

And I wasn't there to watch it....

I just read this. Looks like whatever was going to crash has crashed.

NASA says satellite debris fall complete

I will be out in my back yard, wearing my footy pajamas, a helmet, and a catcher's mitt.

Quote: Ayecarumba

NASA puts the reentry somewhere in the Pacific off the coast of Canada or the US (edit: 31N, 219E). Vancouver takes the lead!

Well, there's no "official" impact zone:

Quote: NASA

The precise re-entry time and location of debris impacts have not been determined. During the re-entry period, the satellite passed from the east coast of Africa over the Indian Ocean, then the Pacific Ocean, then across northern Canada, then across the northern Atlantic Ocean, to a point over West Africa. The vast majority of the orbital transit was over water, with some flight over northern Canada and West Africa.

Since there is no official decision, I have to call all bets off, and declare "No Decision".

However, unofficially, I will award the "prize" to thecesspit with his prediction of "Downtown Vancouver, West Pender and Howe". which is pretty close to the center of the final groundtrack of the debris as they plummeted back to Earth. Since the trail of flaming wreakage was predicted to be 500 miles long, there is a chance some of it ended up in British Columbia.

A close second goes to boymimbo with his prediction of, "36 degrees north, over the pacific ocean". The debris may actually be in this zone, but since it stretches from Japan to the west coast of the U.S. It is pretty much the waistline of the Pacific.

Thanks to all who participated, and until next time, "Keep Your Head Down, and Be Careful Walking On The Beach!" (There may be sharp edged space junk lurking just under the sand.)