What, Me Worry? UARS Impact Prediction Contest

Quote: Face

Am I the only one who, if this thing fell in my yard, would investigate the hell out of it before taking a piece as a memento? "Do not touch"? How could I not?

+1! It looks like there's alot of gold foil on it. I wonder what the scrapper would pay? I would definitely crack off a chunk for my mantle. Hopefully it won't be radioactive vegetable seeds like the ones in the satellite that crashed on Gilligan's Island....

Quote: thecesspit

Good call... Downtown Vancouver, West Pender and Howe.

Anything that takes down the housing prices a few notches there would be great for us!

Okay, NASA has settled on a three day re-entry window:

Quote: NASA

Fri, 16 Sep 2011 12:12:40 PM PDT


As of Sept. 16, 2011, the orbit of UARS was 140 mi by 155 mi (225 km by 250 km). Re-entry is expected Sept. 23, plus or minus a day. The re-entry of UARS is advancing because of a sharp increase in solar activity since the beginning of this week.

You still have a few hours to get your impact predictions in (and a few days to finish up your reinforced concrete bunker).

Edit - Additional information
NASA estimates the human casualty risk at 1 in 3200

Quote: NASA - UARS Casualty Risk Assessment

• NASA conducted a detailed reentry risk assessment for UARS in 2002.
– Number of potentially hazardous objects expected to survive: 26
– Total mass of objects expected to survive: 532 kg
– Estimated human casualty risk (updated to 2011): ~ 1 in 3200

16.9 miles east-southeast of the eastern most point of the Yucatan peninsula. Or, somewhere in the southern Ural mountains.

My official answer is "I have no idea".

BUT, can we all make a pact? If it in fact lands in any of our yards, can we share it with all those who are interested and participated in this thread? Deal?

Quote: Face

My official answer is "I have no idea".

BUT, can we all make a pact? If it in fact lands in any of our yards, can we share it with all those who are interested and participated in this thread? Deal?

Hehe, deal. I'd even hop my neighbor's fence to pick a few smoldering pieces off of their patio furniture.

Is anyone worried that the casualty risk is estimated at 1 in 3200? This means, according to NASA, you are actually more likely to be hurt by falling UARS debris than being injured while mowing your lawn (3,623 to 1).

Quote: Face

BUT, can we all make a pact? If it in fact lands in any of our yards, can we share it with all those who are interested and participated in this thread? Deal?

Deal.

We can also learn your homeowners insurance doesn't cover falling satellites, and how much you'll sue NASA for.

Quote: Ayecarumba

Is anyone worried that the casualty risk is estimated at 1 in 3200? This means, according to NASA, you are actually more likely to be hurt by falling UARS debris than being injured while mowing your lawn (3,623 to 1).

I heard that reported on one of the network TV news shows yesterday. I haven't read the direct NASA report, but (without any justification other than my own feelings) I suspect the 1 in 3200 figure represents the chance someone gets hit. By that, I mean the chance that someone, anyone, on the planet gets hit. I think the probability of you personally getting hit is lower by a factor equal to the number of people on the planet.

But my feelings on this one could be incorrect. Someone please let me know if you have seen the actual NASA analysis/prediction.

My vote: south London, England.

Life imitates art.

attack the block