Cooperation game
Poll
 | 17 votes (34%) | ||
| | 12 votes (24%) | ||
| | 1 vote (2%) | ||
| | 5 votes (10%) | ||
| | 5 votes (10%) | ||
| | 6 votes (12%) | ||
| | 3 votes (6%) | ||
| | 7 votes (14%) | ||
| | 3 votes (6%) | ||
| | 1 vote (2%) |
50 members have voted
August 19th, 2016 at 4:38:53 AM
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Well $1 should get more than 50% to win. What if the $1 get 50% and same with the $2 then which will you give? Well this is just a scenario but I will choose the $1 so every one gets it.
August 19th, 2016 at 6:37:42 AM
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I'm in, if there's still room.
Edit: saw that it's full and that's ok. Maybe next time.
Edit: saw that it's full and that's ok. Maybe next time.
August 19th, 2016 at 6:43:07 AM
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$1 it is, true to the game. If we can get everyone on our list to go $1, we should have a prize pool to have fun with afterwards!
(think of the hookers and blow, guys)
(think of the hookers and blow, guys)
Playing it correctly means you've already won.
August 19th, 2016 at 6:45:16 AM
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Quote: gordonm888I'm in.
Sorry, I'm not accepting new players at this point. I'll put you first on a waiting list. Anybody who misses the first two rounds stands to be eliminated.
Update: 21 picks sent in so far.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 19th, 2016 at 6:46:26 AM
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Quote: PlayYourCardsRightI'm in, if there's still room.
I put you on the waiting list.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 19th, 2016 at 6:47:05 AM
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Quote: CasinodepositorWhat if the $1 get 50% and same with the $2 then which will you give? Well this is just a scenario but I will choose the $1 so every one gets it.
Than we all lose. More than 50% need to choose the lower amount to win. 50/50 equals a failure and we lose. Look again at #2 and #3.
- During a specified period of time, every player must PM to me how much money he/she wants to win. The choices are $1 or $2.
- If more than 50% of players choose $1, then everybody will win what he/she selects.
- If 50% or more players choose $2, then everybody will win $0.
- Individual submissions will be anonymous. Totals only will be announced.
- This experiment will be repeated as long as there is sufficient interest. However, I will retain the right to put a cap on the number of players. If I do, old players will have priority.
.
August 19th, 2016 at 7:34:38 AM
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Quote: Romes$1 it is, true to the game. If we can get everyone on our list to go $1, we should have a prize pool to have fun with afterwards!
I am going with $1.
Will submit my choice to the Wizard via PM.
You serious, Clark?
August 19th, 2016 at 8:20:17 AM
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I have already sent in my $1 Vote
August 19th, 2016 at 10:43:26 AM
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25 picks have been submitted so far.
As a reminder, the deadline is 9:00 AM Sunday, Vegas time.
As a reminder, the deadline is 9:00 AM Sunday, Vegas time.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 19th, 2016 at 10:45:23 AM
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Again?Quote: SOOPOOIt is possible Mike has already paid me $2 to be a mole, liar and cheat. Just saying....
-----------------------
I Don't think all the $1 players should say it public
That will only give people the opportunity to decide if them people are telling the truth and if they believe it's well under they will change their minds and bit $2 just because they thought it was safe.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 19th, 2016 at 11:17:51 AM
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For those who have their hearts set on betting $2, perhaps a deal can be made, where you get paid $1 to make a pick of $1, contingent on the pool winning.
August 19th, 2016 at 11:40:35 AM
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I just now submitted $1. My future bids will depend on what happened this time.
August 19th, 2016 at 11:44:50 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfAgain?
-----------------------
I Don't think all the $1 players should say it public
That will only give people the opportunity to decide if them people are telling the truth and if they believe it's well under they will change their minds and bit $2 just because they thought it was safe.
I am fine with more people going for $2 if we hit the 50% mark....in fact if there are 20 people that really don't care about $1 vs. $2, let them all come out and be public about it so that the balance of the pool picks $2 and we have the maximum total pay to go bet on the "Romes Longshot" opportunity....(I am in on that as well by the way). There just isn't enough money at risk on this round to spend 14+ pages on the collaborative effort.....JMHO ;-)
August 19th, 2016 at 12:22:50 PM
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I don't think I ever gave the official word that I'm in for the Romes idea as well.
.
August 19th, 2016 at 12:41:51 PM
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I'll collude. What's the plan exactly?
August 19th, 2016 at 12:42:25 PM
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Quote: rudeboyoiI'll collude. What's the plan exactly?
uhhh...I don't think we have one at the moment
when in doubt vote $1
August 19th, 2016 at 1:09:53 PM
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Quote: rudeboyoiI'll collude. What's the plan exactly?
This round is a wash for working togetwhr. Next round we will have a plan from the get go. We get the list of all who are on board and adjust for those non team members and pool the team members total won and devide.
However, most are on board with Romes pool bet plan thereafter it seems...
.
August 19th, 2016 at 1:16:31 PM
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Enjoying watching this unfold. I reckon that the 'team' needs to assess the altruism and integrity of its members, which will not be an exact science because any rat's won't be identifiable. The team also needs to decide to what extent the declared $2 bidding non-team members ( Shall we call them weasels?) should be allowed to get away with their greed, and how will the non-declarers bid?
So many variables. I foresee spats, mistrust and even a few suspensions before all this is played out.
So many variables. I foresee spats, mistrust and even a few suspensions before all this is played out.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 19th, 2016 at 1:38:49 PM
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Okay. I picked $1. And took a screenshot.
August 19th, 2016 at 5:52:00 PM
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I'm going to have to back out of the game.I won't be available for awhile.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
August 19th, 2016 at 6:22:27 PM
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Most of the rats will be because just about anyone on board will probably be willing to provide a screen shot. Anyone not willing to will be considered a defector.Quote: OnceDearEnjoying watching this unfold. I reckon that the 'team' needs to assess the altruism and integrity of its members, which will not be an exact science because any rat's won't be identifiable. The team also needs to decide to what extent the declared $2 bidding non-team members ( Shall we call them weasels?) should be allowed to get away with their greed, and how will the non-declarers bid?
So many variables. I foresee spats, mistrust and even a few suspensions before all this is played out.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 19th, 2016 at 6:24:44 PM
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Did you bid? That's all that matters the rest will take care of itself. The time it took to post that you could've made your bid. The next round(if there is one) is separate.Quote: HunterhillI'm going to have to back out of the game.I won't be available for awhile.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 19th, 2016 at 6:33:49 PM
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Quote: AxelWolfMost of the rats will be because just about anyone on board will probably be willing to provide a screen shot. Anyone not willing to will be considered a defector.
Really easy to fake a screenshot
August 19th, 2016 at 8:29:50 PM
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Question: Can the same PM be sent to two or more people at the same time? (e.g. To: "Wizard, [name of another colluder]")
August 19th, 2016 at 11:58:13 PM
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Edit: never mind, I see that it filled up before I applied.
So many better men, a few of them friends, are dead. And a thousand thousand slimy things live on, and so do I.
August 20th, 2016 at 12:57:39 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfMost of the rats will be because just about anyone on board will probably be willing to provide a screen shot. Anyone not willing to will be considered a defector.
Now there's a thing....
I assert that I have bid $1. But I also decide to provide no evidence of that.
That must have an effect on the strategy of 'the team'. Like all those who just say they are bidding $1 I'm more likely to be a lying rat. So your team will likely assume that some proportion of us potential rats are really bidding $2. The team will make an allowance for that.
The team will also assume that those who are saying they will bid $2 are telling the truth. Thus the team will possibly decide to enter a greater number of $1 bids, unless it's a 'whack a rat' punishment round. If, on the other hand, I proved my bid, that caution would be less and the team would go for up to one more $2 team bid.
So, I reckon that by being mischievous, I'm encouraging the team to make more of a buffer: Be more cautious. Because I AM bidding $1 that buffer won't be needed, but it will defend against one of the team who is a secret rat.
And that's before the team even consider how to deal with the declared $2ers
$:o)
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 20th, 2016 at 1:32:34 AM
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Mike, Mods,
Please may I post a link to a screengrab of my most recent PM to Mike, wherein i made my bid on this. To do so would SEEM to break the letter of rule 4 and 14 but not the spirit of those rules.
There's nothing secret in there that hasn't been photoshopped to hell and back
$:o)
Please may I post a link to a screengrab of my most recent PM to Mike, wherein i made my bid on this. To do so would SEEM to break the letter of rule 4 and 14 but not the spirit of those rules.
There's nothing secret in there that hasn't been photoshopped to hell and back
$:o)
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 20th, 2016 at 4:51:52 AM
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I just had a thought.... There are 40 guys, I'll bet combined income over $5,000,000, now onto day 5 I think of trying to figure out how to squeeze a maximum of $59 from a friend! My word is gold. I will be providing no screenshots. I will be selecting $2 this round. I will be open to collusion in subsequent rounds because it will make Axel happy.
I will consider donating my $2 to charity if the group decides that all won monies are directly donated to charity by Mike.
I will consider donating my $2 to charity if the group decides that all won monies are directly donated to charity by Mike.
August 20th, 2016 at 5:18:42 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOI will be open to collusion in subsequent rounds because it will make Axel happy..
Tee hee. I'm not colluding even more so now because of how much emotion it will evoke.
I'm sure Mike is getting excellent value from his (potential) $59 investment.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 20th, 2016 at 6:04:55 AM
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For anyone considering screenshots as proof, I did this in 2mins with a browser addon. Didn't even need photoshop.
August 20th, 2016 at 7:24:45 AM
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You can forward PM's however I have a feeling that one can just edit the PMQuote: doughtakerQuestion: Can the same PM be sent to two or more people at the same time? (e.g. To: "Wizard, [name of another colluder]")
---- ORIGINAL MESSAGE-----
Edit to say whatever I want.
-----------------------------------------------------------
I suppose someone can take a screen shot of a fake PM bid or something like that.
If someone wants to get tricky for $2 then have at it.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 20th, 2016 at 7:36:12 AM
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Quote: SOOPOOI just had a thought.... There are 40 guys, I'll bet combined income over $5,000,000, now onto day 5 I think of trying to figure out how to squeeze a maximum of $59 from a friend! My word is gold. I will be providing no screenshots. I will be selecting $2 this round. I will be open to collusion in subsequent rounds because it will make Axel happy.
I will consider donating my $2 to charity if the group decides that all won monies are directly donated to charity by Mike.
Then all you rich people need to donate it to my poor ass.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
August 20th, 2016 at 7:40:54 AM
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You're overthinking this for $2. If you want to make at least triple that just follow me around the casino I usually purposely abandon slot tickets that are less than $1( you might even get a big one)Quote: OnceDearNow there's a thing....
I assert that I have bid $1. But I also decide to provide no evidence of that.
That must have an effect on the strategy of 'the team'. Like all those who just say they are bidding $1 I'm more likely to be a lying rat. So your team will likely assume that some proportion of us potential rats are really bidding $2. The team will make an allowance for that.
The team will also assume that those who are saying they will bid $2 are telling the truth. Thus the team will possibly decide to enter a greater number of $1 bids, unless it's a 'whack a rat' punishment round. If, on the other hand, I proved my bid, that caution would be less and the team would go for up to one more $2 team bid.
So, I reckon that by being mischievous, I'm encouraging the team to make more of a buffer: Be more cautious. Because I AM bidding $1 that buffer won't be needed, but it will defend against one of the team who is a secret rat.
And that's before the team even consider how to deal with the declared $2ers
$:o)
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 20th, 2016 at 7:42:02 AM
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says the guy who vacations 7 times a year.Quote: GWAEThen all you rich people need to donate it to my poor ass.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
August 20th, 2016 at 7:48:55 AM
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Quote: gamerfreak
Nice! Point well made. You would do well running a crew gnomes playing Internet casinos with your ability to falsify images.
p.s. 28 picks received so far.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 20th, 2016 at 8:45:05 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfYou're overthinking this for $2
It's not about the money, at all.
Nooooo.
It's about the maths, the tactics, the mind games, the excitement, the frustration, the fury of my fellow man.
It's about living the dream.
Like SooPoo said, 40 daft guys with combined income of millions scrambling over each-other to screw a collective $59 out of our host....
Actually it's about Mike generating content and traffic for this site and improving search rankings for a fraction of the cost of an adwords campaign...
Yup Mike is the AP here. Good on yer Mike.
$;o)
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 20th, 2016 at 8:47:14 AM
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Quote: WizardQuote: gamerfreak
If Mike can do that to rule 4 and 14 then I guess it's ok for me to post this:-
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 20th, 2016 at 8:52:27 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfsays the guy who vacations 7 times a year.
Haha, we'll there has to be a reason I am poor I guess
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed.
I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
August 20th, 2016 at 9:12:19 AM
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Quote: AxelWolfYou're overthinking this for $2. If you want to make at least triple that just follow me around the casino I usually purposely abandon slot tickets that are less than $1( you might even get a big one)
Wait?? I thought you go around the casino all day looking for left over tickets for a few pennies each? At least I read that somewhere 😀.
August 20th, 2016 at 12:45:03 PM
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Quote: BozWait?? I thought you go around the casino all day looking for left over tickets for a few pennies each? At least I read that somewhere 😀.
He does both.
August 20th, 2016 at 7:42:29 PM
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Here’s a little bit of math for this game:
If you assume that any one of your co-players will go $2 with a probability of 50%, you can expect a return of
50 cents if you go $1
and about 75 cents if you go $2.
If we look at the poll at the top of this thread…13 votes for $1 and 10 votes for $2 and add 4 votes each (from the “I’ll randomize” and “undecided”)…we get a probability that a player will go $2 at about 45% (or 14/31).
If you assume that any one of your co-players will go $2 with a probability of 45% (14/31), you can expect a return of
$0.73 if you go $1
and $1.23 if you go $2.
Going $2 will yield a higher EV for you personally as long as the probability of a co-player going $2 is less than 62.25% (any higher, then going $1 will provided a better EV--but not much better). Your EV at this point is a tad under 6 cents.
And here is a chart:
I'm still going $1 though.
If you assume that any one of your co-players will go $2 with a probability of 50%, you can expect a return of
50 cents if you go $1
and about 75 cents if you go $2.
If we look at the poll at the top of this thread…13 votes for $1 and 10 votes for $2 and add 4 votes each (from the “I’ll randomize” and “undecided”)…we get a probability that a player will go $2 at about 45% (or 14/31).
If you assume that any one of your co-players will go $2 with a probability of 45% (14/31), you can expect a return of
$0.73 if you go $1
and $1.23 if you go $2.
Going $2 will yield a higher EV for you personally as long as the probability of a co-player going $2 is less than 62.25% (any higher, then going $1 will provided a better EV--but not much better). Your EV at this point is a tad under 6 cents.
And here is a chart:
I'm still going $1 though.
Last edited by: PeeMcGee on Aug 21, 2016
August 20th, 2016 at 9:11:00 PM
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Quote: PeeMcGee
Nice chart. Certainly makes for a strong case for going $2.
31 picks have been tendered so far. Just under 12 hours before the round 1 deadline.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 20th, 2016 at 9:23:31 PM
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I think it is analogous to the even money 51% or roulette long shot type question Wizard posted about a few months ago. If you say $1, you need to be right more often and $2 less often. Never having to be wrong would be more pleasurable but then you take things for granted and get greedy. Peace doesn't last because everyone is thinking it's good but could be better for them from their perspective and at some point peace is worth threatening.
I am a robot.
August 21st, 2016 at 2:25:35 AM
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You would say that if you needed to encourage just a few more $2 bids so that you could escape paying anything.Quote: Wizard
Nice chart. Certainly makes for a strong case for going $2.
$:o)
ps. Sorry but I couldn't get my head around Pee's maths or chart. I'd have expected some conspicuous crossover point.
Psalm 25:16
Turn to me and be gracious to me, for I am lonely and afflicted.
Proverbs 18:2
A fool finds no satisfaction in trying to understand, for he would rather express his own opinion.
August 21st, 2016 at 4:22:30 AM
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I used a pack of cards to make my selection to obtain P($2)=1/3 and P($1)=2/3. Spades=$2, Red=$1, Clubs=redraw. I believe, played cooperatively, this is the best way to play.
I have sent the card drawn and my selection to the wizard.
I have sent the card drawn and my selection to the wizard.
August 21st, 2016 at 4:44:53 AM
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Quote: charliepatrickI used a pack of cards to make my selection to obtain P($2)=1/3 and P($1)=2/3. Spades=$2, Red=$1, Clubs=redraw. I believe, played cooperatively, this is the best way to play.
I have sent the card drawn and my selection to the wizard.
Inb4 maxpen says "clubs=redraw changes the math, not sure how but it does".
August 21st, 2016 at 5:18:27 AM
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This table is based on 39 others players playing randomly and where the breakpoint for the 40th player is. Thus wizard's graph does flip, but the figures are close
$1 | EV $1 | EV$2 |
1% | .000 000 | .000 000 |
16% | .000 001 | .000 000 |
17% | .000 003 | .000 001 |
18% | .000 007 | .000 003 |
19% | .000 016 | .000 007 |
20% | .000 034 | .000 016 |
21% | .000 069 | .000 035 |
22% | .000 134 | .000 072 |
23% | .000 250 | .000 141 |
24% | .000 447 | .000 266 |
25% | .000 771 | .000 482 |
26% | .001 288 | .000 846 |
27% | .002 088 | .001 437 |
28% | .003 287 | .002 370 |
29% | .005 039 | .003 800 |
30% | .007 533 | .005 934 |
31% | .010 996 | .009 040 |
32% | .015 696 | .013 450 |
33% | .021 935 | .019 573 |
34% | .030 042 | .027 889 |
35% | .040 367 | .038 949 |
36% | .053 260 | .053 366 |
37% | .069 060 | .071 797 |
38% | .088 076 | .094 925 |
39% | .110 560 | .123 427 |
40% | .136 692 | .157 939 |
August 21st, 2016 at 6:16:27 AM
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Quote: charliepatrickI have sent the card drawn and my selection to the wizard.
I appreciate the thought you're put into it, but I'm afraid you are not on the player list. Here again are the 40 for round 1:
- AxelWolf
- Ayecarumba
- beachbumbabs
- beerseason
- bigfoot66
- blount2000
- Boz
- Canyonero
- Dalex64
- DJTeddyBear
- Doc
- doughtaker
- gamerfreak
- GWAE
- HeyMrDJ
- Hunterhill
- jml24
- joeman
- Joeshlabotnik
- MathExtremist
- miplet
- MrGoldenSun
- mrsuit31
- odiousgambit
- OnceDear
- onenickelmiracle
- Paigowdan
- Paradigm
- PeeMcGee
- Romes
- RonC
- RS
- rudeboyoi
- SOOPOO
- theoriemeister
- TomG
- Torghatten
- TwoFeathersATL
- Wizardofnothing
- wudged
I'd be happy to put you third on the waiting list. I'm thinking of randomly removing 3 people who didn't play in round 1 with the waiting list people.
Speaking of that, I've received 33 picks so far. Two hours, 45 minutes to go.
"For with much wisdom comes much sorrow." -- Ecclesiastes 1:18 (NIV)
August 21st, 2016 at 8:00:02 AM
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Quote: OnceDearYou would say that if you needed to encourage just a few more $2 bids so that you could escape paying anything.
$:o)
ps. Sorry but I couldn't get my head around Pee's maths or chart. I'd have expected some conspicuous crossover point.
Let me add some clarity. The horizontal axis of the chart is the probability that each of your 39 co-players will select $2. Then you can find your expected value based on if you select $1 or $2.
There is an intersection point at 62.25%. At which point, selecting $1 will yield a higher expected value. The thing is, the difference between the two is so small it doesn’t really show well on the chart.
So, as the Wizard points out, it does appears that selecting $2 is in your best interest.
But keep in mind, this is your expected value. So while selecting $2 is in your best interest, it may not be best for the group.
In fact, the Wizard is expected to payout out the most if each player selects $2 only about 1/3rd of the time (if the players are picking randomly).
It’s a prisoner’s dilemma—you can better your personal situation by defecting…but cooperating yields better results for all involved as a whole.
August 21st, 2016 at 8:05:41 AM
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Thanks = PM sent. I think it's an interesting idea to deliberately have a wait list as some people may be away in subsequent weekends and it probably doesn't matter if you merely pick the first/random selection of 40 in and not admit who has replied.
