Blackjack fluctuations and downswings

I know what determines penetration... A regular oxford dictionary definition can tell you as much. I keep trying to make the obvious insinuation that ASM's remove any reason to deal very far into the deck for more hands per hour. I'll explain further:

One of the places I play, seems to place the cut card 2/3rd or less into their asm shoes, and hand shuffle I tend to see it much, much deeper.

I believe this has to do with the dilemma of why casino's do not half shoe all the time, on every shoe. They lose a massive amount of hands per hour, action, and money, constantly having to shuffle. Player's get impatient, lot's of con's to shuffling constantly.

*ASM's remove this issue as the new shoe pops up so fast, shuffle downtime is practically removed. They can freely cut down on penetration and lose very little hands per hour, and/or action.

- This may not be the case, but I believe it possible.

I also would ask what the max's are on a 90% pen game, I feel a lot of time, it's 1000 or less, so they're less worried about someone burning down the house on them with a big spread, so they sweat deep penetration much less with a low table max..

Quote: APDave

I also would ask what the max's are on a 90% pen game, I feel a lot of time, it's 1000 or less, so they're less worried about someone burning down the house on them with a big spread, so they sweat deep penetration much less with a low table max..

Thanks, I get it now. There are two different penetration levels, one for the ASMs and one for the hand shuffled decks. I've never seen that. It must be confusing to some of the relief dealers.

The games you asked about with 90% pen go up to $5000 table max. It depends on the table minimum.

I've played in Atlantic City since 1978 and have always found it somewhat sweaty. With all your big wins, you must experience a lot of heat. Can you tell us how you deal with it?

Honestly I come between 3 - 5 units on the first hand, occasionally let a bet ride when I shouldn't. I don't stand on 16 unless the count is high. I hit it on middling counts. I do the same with insurance, I don't play it at +3 and say shit like "sucker bet", I wait for +5 and above. I sit at no mid-shoe entry, so I try to ride out the bad shoes on minimum, but still occasionally double up after a loss. Although this cuts my advantagea bit, I believe you get most of it back pushing hard on that shoe you get about 1/5 times that is favorable. It only hurts when you finally get that shoe, and you still lose the majority (or all) of your hands.

One of the players next to me has at least twice this year told me "the pit boss has been staring at you", but I don't acknowledge it, I drink more of my "gin & tonic (water and ice)" and keep talking. I talk a lot, tip the dealer decently, and often ask the pit boss what the correct basic strategy play is and/or pull out the basic strategy card, I also like to ask pit bosses if they thinks I should push a big bet (they almost always say yes, so I ask when the deck is favorable). I tell people "I play hunches" all sorts of bullshit. In the end no one has insinuated I am counting, or tried to back me off. The tipping alone might keep me in good enough standing they don't back me off, and occasionally I have a losing trip, usually from a few bad swing hands that should have gone my way, large multiple splits with ensuing doubles can be so massive with a couple hundred or a g out there.

I also don't think they sweat no mid-shoe tables much, I had a dealer a while back basically chatting about the count with me, and giving me shit for not betting the appropriate amounts at the right times, I had to grit my teeth not to banter about it with him, because it was such a good opportunity to color commentate on the results and percentages, but figured it might be a bad idea to sell myself out. When showing me the burn cards, he'd say "does nothing, neutral card" or "it's a 5, but too early to influence your bet", etc. Made me wonder if I'd taken the bait if it would have been an issue.

I think I've only gotten 90% pen. on a 6 deck game, and it usually doesn't last for more than a shoe or two. Frankly I have such an abhorrence for 8-deck, even seeing that kind of deal going on, I may have a hard time sitting down. I am loathe at the counts I have lost to a 4/5/6 bailout, that just shouldn't be there anymore. But strictly speaking one shouldn't pass on that opportunity I guess, was it S17?

Do you play rated?

Quote: 1BB

Thanks, I get it now. There are two different penetration levels, one for the ASMs and one for the hand shuffled decks. I've never seen that. It must be confusing to some of the relief dealers.

I've seen cuts on the boxes for the cards that force the depth of the cut for the dealer, so no need to think about the depth of cut.

Yea I play rated, I even use a host occasionally, although, he once told me it'd be easier to comp my charges if I'd take a loss. I lost next trip. Some weekends I run 700 - 1000 comp dollars, I figure I'll let them comp till they won't. I never ever play markers though.

I know there is notches on a cut card for depth, but I absolutely am sure that some dealers cut deeper than others. And I doubt any notch sits at 90%.