Blackjack fluctuations and downswings

Quote: APDave

I mean I dont' believe there is a nefarious setting causing more stiffs, but in 8 decks there is just so many damn cards and with the ASM popping the next shoe up so fast they can deal just 2/3s through leaving so much randomness left in the deck. I'm done trying to beat an 8 deck game, luckily on less busy nights or during the day you can catch the 6 decks with S17 for 25s often enough. And even on a busy night usually for 50. Granted they're no mid-shoe but the max's are better so you can just weather the bad shoes at minimum and spread hard on the positive ones. It's definitely worked better for me than trying to beat the 8 deck shit.

Poor penetration has long been a problem in Atlantic City and it has nothing to do with ASMs. I'm surprised to hear that the 6 deck games have better pen than the 8 decks. I'll definitely check it out the next time I'm there.

Yea I actually crushed a 200 minimum shoe for 6600 profit a few months ago, and the pitboss was standing there visibly annoyed with the dealer for dealing that deep into the shoe. She literally dealt to half a deck heads-up with me. Twice he says "you're still dealing from this shoe?" and then "there's still cards left in this shoe? wow". Didn't mind my action though, but her cut card definitely didn't go as deep after the shuffle.

I've also had a guy on the 50 minimums deal to what I swear was the last card in the shoe one night. I was getting crushed and it didn't help me which was sad, as it is the only time I've ever seen a dealer do something like that. I think he was trying to help me get even, I was visibly getting bent over by bad cards that night. The female pitboss seemed blithely ignorant to the penetration being dealt and was cheering for me to win, as I lost a 2200 dollar bet doubled down on a 11 to a 6 up dealer card. Miracle 5, bankroll decimated, apologies and condolences to me all around.

Doesn't really make you feel better. I suggest testing the 6 decks, and I find the dealers can vary immensely on penetration levels. If nothing else I'd say a case for tipping is penetration and getting that last hand with the cut card showing. I also feel the scrutiny on multi-deck is pretty minimal especially with no mid-shoe entry, they just believe that it's too hard to beat. Although if you're stacked, and up in the 5-figure range the cut card does seem to get closer and closer to half a shoe.

googling "atlantic city blackjack ASM" brings up an interesting find: only this thread.

J'accuse! you guys are using insufferable jargonism!

Automatic Shuffling Machine, it allows them to keep popping up a new shoe with no delay for a shuffle. Causes quick action, and doesn't really cause any dilemma where they have to decide on penetration to downtime when dealing deep into a shoe.

Half-shoe'ng on a hand shuffle causes a lot of missed hands and action per hour, so they don't typically do it. However, with an ASM that downtime from the reshuffling doesn't really exist. As far as getting more stiffs from an ASM, i just stick to blaming the size of the shoe.

All kidding aside, thanks for the explanation. I had just thought all shuffling machines were "continuous" if they bothered with them.

Yea there's a difference. The ASM's drop the used up shoe down into a black box, that synchronously pops up a nice fresh new 8-deck of wonder. They still afford you the yellow cut card to put into the newly machine shuffled shoe, wherever superstition tells you to, but that's really a pittance.

Quote: APDave

Yea there's a difference. The ASM's drop the used up shoe down into a black box, that synchronously pops up a nice fresh new 8-deck of wonder. They still afford you the yellow cut card to put into the newly machine shuffled shoe, wherever superstition tells you to, but that's really a pittance.

What really matters is where the dealer puts the other yellow card .

A continuous shuffler such as the ShuffleMaster one2six is dealt from the machine unlike the ASM which is dealt from a shoe. The cards are usually returned to the machine after each hand. It is not countable while the ASM is countable.

I'm very aware the other yellow card is the important one. And my belief stands that the lack of delay on switching shoes allows them to deal at the furthest 2/3rds in on an ASM shoe. And although the 8 deck shoes are countable, with that kind of penetration your opportunities are few and far between, and there is still so many damn cards left in the shoe that even with odds in your favor the wrong card still flips over enough that I've sworn off playing 8 deck.

Quote: MathExtremist

The Shuffle Master products can usually read the cards in the shoe -- that's how they can tell whether anything is amiss with the deck,.

I always thought the Shufflemaster products only counted the number of cards, not the values. What versions can do this?

Mark

Quote: APDave

I'm very aware the other yellow card is the important one. And my belief stands that the lack of delay on switching shoes allows them to deal at the furthest 2/3rds in on an ASM shoe. And although the 8 deck shoes are countable, with that kind of penetration your opportunities are few and far between, and there is still so many damn cards left in the shoe that even with odds in your favor the wrong card still flips over enough that I've sworn off playing 8 deck.

I don't quite understand your second sentence. The ASM has nothing to do with penetration. Once the cards are removed from the machine it becomes a regular blackjack game. The penetration is determined by where the dealer places the cut card.

I know a major casino that consistently gives over 90% pen on all their 8 deck games, ASMs and hand shuffled.