Predict the 2012 election winners and losers, and official WoV contest.

Quote: APDave

I thought Cain was looking great until all this media slander about harassment....

PERRY IS SABOTAGING HIM!!!

Cain is his own worst enemy. I really think they are using him to get some platform ideas out (like 999) that candidates can run with later. He might get a cabinet position or turn it into a future run for gov or senator? Clintons scandals were much wore IMO from a PR standpoint so one can certainly bounce back. It will come down to money and he wont get much. Romney is the guy that can raise the most cash and will likely get the nod. Perry comes off as a maniac name caller, threatening Bernanke was dumb. Controlling political language wins elections the voters... are going to vote with who has the best talking points on the economy, they are too distracted to understand the nuances of monetary policy and besides that toothpaste is already out of the tube and has been ever since we left the gold standard. BTW I was a libertarian before it was cool and now I can name 20 acquaintances who call themselves "conservative constitutionalists" 10 years ago they would have called themselves family values conservatives because they were too stupid to know that GWB & Cheney wiped their asses with the constitution at every opportunity. Some people like to be with the "in" crowd.

Quote: pacomartin

He's a new guy, so this was to be expected. Clinton was trying to hump everything that moves like a horny Chihuahuahua.

Yep- Cain is his own worst enemy. I really think they are using him to get some platform ideas out (like 999) that candidates can run with later. He might get a cabinet position or turn it into a future run for gov or senator? Clintons scandals were much wore IMO from a PR standpoint so one can certainly bounce back. It will come down to money and he wont get much. Romney is the guy that can raise the most cash and will likely get the nod. Perry comes off as a maniac name caller, threatening Bernanke was dumb. Controlling political language wins elections the voters... are going to vote with who has the best talking points on the economy, they are too distracted to understand the nuances of monetary policy and besides that toothpaste is already out of the tube and has been ever since we left the gold standard. BTW I was a libertarian before it was cool (now I am a free agent)and now I can name 20 acquaintances who call themselves "conservative constitutionalists" 10 years ago they would have called themselves family values conservatives because they were too stupid to know that GWB & Cheney wiped their asses with the constitution at every opportunity and didnt care family values crowd beyond a vote. It is ALWAYS about money!!

Edit: sorry about the dupe, getting a bad connection today.

Well being that was my pick, I hope he bounces back, and people ride the Mormonism is a cult card hard. That could really mess with Romney if that comes back into focus. Or so I hope.

I only picked Perry as a VP cos' I panicked and couldn't think of another name... I'd probably have picked Cain before this scandal, but having seen how he's coping with it... he's not going to last, but will probably parlay his exposure into something.

Romney's running mate will probably not be a Republican POTUS candidate, and I suspect someone a foreigner like me has never heard of.

Quote: Scotty71

BTW I was a libertarian before it was cool and now I can name 20 acquaintances who call themselves "conservative constitutionalists" 10 years ago they would have called themselves family values conservatives because they were too stupid to know that GWB & Cheney wiped their asses with the constitution at every opportunity. Some people like to be with the "in" crowd.

So Can I assume that you support Dr. Paul or perhaps the good Governor Gary Johnson?

Quote: bigfoot66

So Can I assume that you support Dr. Paul or perhaps the good Governor Gary Johnson?

He (Paul) might be one candidate for pres I might actually give money to, but I don't think he will be in the running. I am pretty much a free agent & dont vote any party line. I want to vote for the best candidate with a shot at the job. Jimmy Carter was probably more fiscally conservative than half the current Republicans in office.

If Paul did get the job you would probably see inflation IMO because he would attempt to tighten money supply which should force rates up dramatically and bury anyone invested in bond funds. It'll be a fun show to watch. Never a dull moment.

Quote: Wizard

Here are the picks!

No pick from the Wizard?

Quote: Scotty71

If Paul did get the job you would probably see inflation IMO because he would attempt to tighten money supply which should force rates up dramatically and bury anyone invested in bond funds. It'll be a fun show to watch. Never a dull moment.

I agree that Paul is an interesting candidate. On the one hand, I like that he doesn't temper what he says. On the other hand, tempering what he says would make him so much more electable.

Are you sure you're looking at the monetary policy in this quote correctly? I think that reducing the money supply increases the value of each dollar, which decreases the dollar-denominated cost of hard goods.

Quote: rdw4potus

I agree that Paul is an interesting candidate. On the one hand, I like that he doesn't temper what he says. On the other hand, tempering what he says would make him so much more electable.

Are you sure you're looking at the monetary policy in this quote correctly? I think that reducing the money supply increases the value of each dollar, which decreases the dollar-denominated cost of hard goods.

I may not have expressed it effectively in an attempt to be succinct

Depends on how you look at it, it is circular in nature but If you tighten money supply you can do it in 2 ways.
1. You make the amount of credit finite (essentially what the gold standard did)
2. You raise rates on reserves (and ultimately borrowing) which effectively reduces the amount of money in supply for lending.

I will expand on it later when I have more time to express my thoughts in a large macro model I am not an econ guy in the pure sense... but my quick point would be ultimately the value of a bond is a function of it's credit quality, value of the cash flows it pays (if any), and competing interest rates for new or alternative investments.