kennyb
kennyb
Joined: Feb 25, 2011
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February 25th, 2011 at 9:32:07 AM permalink
The 2010 Vegas Strip Table Game Data Win% was:

Blackjack - 9.98%
Baccarat - 11.03%
Craps - 11.59%
Roulette - 16.80%
3-Card Poker - 29.05%
Mini-Bacc - 8.34%
Let it ride - 22.31%
Pai Gow Poker - 19.85%


I understand the cumulative effect of a person betting their buy-in a couple times over, but why the difference in games like Roulette and Pai Gow? It would seem with the slower pace and lower house edge the win % would be lower in Pai Gow vs Roulette. Is it the Bonus Bets or is that Roulette can be a more hit and run type game?
teddys
teddys
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February 25th, 2011 at 10:04:03 AM permalink
Those are very low numbers.

Strip table games have lower hold percentages. There are not as many "grinders" as in off-strip and ex-NV casinos. Mostly hit-and-runners. Pai Gow Poker players tend to stay longer and soak up the free drinks and atmosphere. If they play the side bets and don't bank, they are giving up a house edge about as much as Roulette. The house is going to take a greater percentage of their money.

Off the Strip Blackjack is usually at 10-15%, Craps at 12-18%, Roulette at 18-21%, and Pai Gow hovers around 19%. Those are Atlantic City numbers
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4
pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 25th, 2011 at 10:34:46 AM permalink
I would attribute the reason to the same thing that happens to the Baccarat win percentage every Chinese New Years. The Chinese come to a casino to gamble. Long long hours tearing up cards and looking to be fortune's bitch or her favorite. By comparison, most of the rest of the gamblers are posers. They simply don't stay at the tables long enough.

Every February, the amount of drop in baccarat goes up to a good sized number, but the win percent makes a dramatic jump. Last February the earnings for baccarat hit an all time record because the win percentage soared to 17%.

I have arguments with the journalists who always attribute it to "players having good/bad luck" at the tables. In a mid summer month which attracts few Chinese they frequently have a month where the win percentage is terrible. It is simply that the white people are more interested in cashing in on their lucky streaks and hitting the pool.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
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February 25th, 2011 at 10:58:48 AM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

In a mid summer month which attracts few Chinese they frequently have a month where the win percentage is terrible. It is simply that the white people are more interested in cashing in on their lucky streaks and hitting the pool.



Do the "non-white" people have a win goal that is not realized, or is it just the action that keeps them at the table? I am especially curious about the players who are risking "syndicate" money. I think, like 98steps and his investors, that there would be some understanding beforehand that when a certain goal is achieved, the front money, and the agreed to winnings, would be taken out of action.
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, bad-ass speed. - Eleanor Roosevelt, 1936
pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 25th, 2011 at 4:07:13 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Do the "non-white" people have a win goal that is not realized, or is it just the action that keeps them at the table? I am especially curious about the players who are risking "syndicate" money. I think, like 98steps and his investors, that there would be some understanding beforehand that when a certain goal is achieved, the front money, and the agreed to winnings, would be taken out of action.



I know nothing about "syndicate" money. Personally, without the entertainment value, the idea of giving your money to a "syndicate" and trying to win at a game of pure luck where you are battling a house edge seems crazy. At least if you back a poker player you can credit his skill or blame his lack of skill. Personally, I have to wonder if most syndicates are simply money laundering schemes.

I don't know how many Chinese players play with specific goals. I think a lot of people say they want to double their money, and if it happens very quickly just are swept up in the action and keep on playing (some to end up behind by the end of the day). I know that casinos set a goal of fours a day of play because they think it is realistic. From the repeated analysis of tourists, many Asian players will stay at the tables for huge numbers of hours. The Las Vegas Convention Center posts profiles of visitors based on interviews as well as observations. In this context racial profiling is encouraged.
pacomartin
pacomartin
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February 25th, 2011 at 6:52:29 PM permalink
Quote: kennyb

The 2010 Vegas Strip Table Game Data Win% was:

Blackjack - 9.98%
Baccarat - 11.03%
Craps - 11.59%
Roulette - 16.80%
3-Card Poker - 29.05%
Mini-Bacc - 8.34%
Let it ride - 22.31%
Pai Gow Poker - 19.85%


I understand the cumulative effect of a person betting their buy-in a couple times over, but why the difference in games like Roulette and Pai Gow? It would seem with the slower pace and lower house edge the win % would be lower in Pai Gow vs Roulette. Is it the Bonus Bets or is that Roulette can be a more hit and run type game?



If we isolate the 4 tiniest casinos on the Vegas strip (the ones that make less than $1million per month on average) and look at the win percentages. I would estimate that the players don't gamble as much on blackjack as the strip in general, roulette has a higher percentage so it seems to be the same.

The win percent for the year was very low for craps. These 4 casinos collectively lost $356K in craps for the month of December.

Blackjack 4.89% (20 tables) $1581K for the year
Roulette 18.03% (4 tables) $669K for the year
Craps 1.02% (4 tables) $92K for the year

----------------------

In Baccarat the major strip casinos had
DropRevenueWin PercentMonth
$1.20 billion$205 million17.06%Feb of 2010
$0.52 billion$18 million3.50% Jun of 2010


These two months (only four months apart) were the most extreme in almost the entire last decade. But the drop was only twice as high in February as in June.
The dramatic difference in win percent can't all be player luck. I just think in the summer it's all white people who are mere posers at the baccarat table. They simply don't sit there and play for hours on end like the Chinese on Chinese New Year's Day.

All the recovery in strip gaming in the last 15 months has been because of the soaring revenue in baccarat. But baccarat revenue can change 1100% in four months. It shows you how precarious the strip recovery is to Asians partying in Singapore this month. Chinese New Year's was on 3 February, but reliable numbers won't be reported for another 7 weeks.

See the posts where Sheldon Adelson he is now interested in renting rooms in Vegas, and not giving away as much in comps.
FleaStiff
FleaStiff
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February 26th, 2011 at 2:13:41 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

I am especially curious about the players who are risking "syndicate" money.

Syndicate money? What syndicate? When is syndicate money played? The Chinese are inveterate gamblers but it is indeed most intense at the lunar New Year however Chinese gamble frequently. Chinese males will stay at a table and often give back any massive wins but it is often thought that Chinese females who win big have a tendency to leave with their winnings. Of course all this racial categorization is an amalgam of individual perceptions and might vary. Indeed it might be better to say "Oriental".

Would syndicate money be bankrolled at a high enough figure to make the player and the casino each able to weather the short term?
teddys
teddys
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February 26th, 2011 at 2:40:13 PM permalink
Quote: pacomartin

I know that casinos set a goal of fours a day of play because they think it is realistic. From the repeated analysis of tourists, many Asian players will stay at the tables for huge numbers of hours.

I went to sleep at the Rio at 11 PM and there were people at the baccarat table. When I came down the next morning at 10, they were still there, in the exact same positions....
"Dice, verily, are armed with goads and driving-hooks, deceiving and tormenting, causing grievous woe." -Rig Veda 10.34.4

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