Sequence of red and black cards in one single deck

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August 25th, 2010 at 1:09:20 PM permalink
Wizard Administrator Member since: Oct 14, 2009 Threads: 256 Posts: 5776	Quote: weaselman But then the second one is 25/51, so the final product is still 262625/525150 Okay, the light bulb just came on. It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

August 25th, 2010 at 11:12:54 PM permalink

thecesspit

Member since: Apr 19, 2010
Threads: 36
Posts: 2644

Quote: Wizard
You see to be assuming that the first two cards are different colors. If they were the same, the probability of guessing the third correctly, by going with the opposite color, would be 26/50.

But the correct play would be to guess the opposite colour for the second card, so you only get to the third card if the first two are different colours.

"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept through nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire, for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829

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