Don't Line Bet together with laying the 10 on the come

My 1st Question, so if I am in the wrong place let me know -OK
When I place a $5.00 line bet on the Don't I always Lay the 10 for the come-out roll, then pick it up. I don't play the odds on the don't because once you get pasted the come-out your line-bet always pays 1:1. By laying the 10 during the come-out, when a 7 hits, it only cost me a "net lose" of $2.75 on a $5.00 bet because I lose the $5.00 line bet and Win $2.25 on the 10-lay. My question to the Wiz, or any other math person on here is whether this is a good betting strategy over the long-run or do I lose more money in the long run -if so, can you explain? -thanks

Think of your bets in terms of house advantage. A don't pass/come bet has a 1.3% HE. A straight up lay bet on the 4 or 10 has a house edge of 2.44%. The math of each bet is independent from one another, i.e. your expected loss is the same regardless of your betting "system".

A betting system like this will influence short-term variance, but the HE remains the same. You're betting more, so you can expect to lose more in the long run. There will be times where your Lay bet wins on the come-out 7 and your DP bet loses, which is the intended result. There will be times when an Eleven is rolled, you lose your DP bet, then the shooter rolls a 10 right after and knocks down your Lay bet. The house edge will be realized with the more decisions made

My advice is to you is to take advantage of the odds/lay bet attached to a Passline or Don't Pass/Come. There is no house advantage on odds, which means in the long run you can expect to break-even on the odds portion of your bet.

I would put a DP bet out there, then when a point is established, put a Don't Come bet out there. If the shooter hits his point and you lose your don't pass bet, then I would Lay big time on the Don't Come odds. That way, if a 7 is rolled on the come out, you won your Don't Come and covered your Don't Pass with the odds on the Don't come (which have 0% HE).

Anyways, that's how I play craps.

Hi WOOUSER, and welcome to the forums.

You have a good question, but at the mathematical fundamentals of the game it's a relatively simple answer. I'll give you the flat out simple answer, then I'll explain in more detail.

Simple Answer: It is a bad idea and you're going to lose MORE money in the long run by doing this.

You're attempting to "hedge" your bets to try to protect your original line bet. In doing this, you're placing a COMPLETELY SEPARATE bet which protects you in 1 situation, but hurts you in another situation. You see it as a positive because on the come out 7 you only lose $2.75... However, what about a come out 10? You've now lost $5 and you're the favorite on your line bet, but you will still lose that a portion of the time too.

The best thing I can do to try to help you understand why this is bad is to let you know that THESE ARE TWO COMPLETELY SEPARATE BETS with two COMPLETELY SEPARATE house advantages, but yes BOTH bets both have a house edge. Thus, if you place more money on the table with a house edge, of course you're expected to lose more. Let's look at some numbers...

EV(single $5 don't line bet) = BetAmount*HouseEdge = 5(-.0136) = -0.07 ...so every time you make a $5 don't line bet you could expect to lose 7 cents in the long run.

EV(single $5 lay 10 bet) = BetAmount*HouseEdge = 5(.05) = -0.25 ...so every time you make a $5 lay 10 (or 4) bet, you could expect to lose 25 cents in the long run.

So now I hope you can see why combining these bets is a poor idea... the lay 10 is approximately 4 times as bad of a bet as your line bet. So while it "saves" you on the come out 7, it REALLY hurts you because of the 5% HE (commission) and the loss of the come out 10 (or any 10 rolled really after that).

I also would recommend you put your extra bets/money on ODDS bets. They have no house advantage.

Again, just like Dyvan13 when I play the Don't I place a don't line bet, then follow that with don't come bets (and I do the exact opposite on the pass line/come bets).

Count it up…
6 ways to lose $2.75
5 ways to lose $5
3 ways to win $5
1 way to push
21 ways continue.

Romes nailed it, the only two bets on the table that can be combined to lower the HE are odds working on a contract bet. I would recommend reading up on Variance. It seems most methods of hedging are trying to limit bankroll volatility. Search for Three Point Molly, there are some good numbers in a few of those threads.

I get the 6 ways to lose $2.75
3 4
4 3
5 2
2 5
6 1
1 6
But 5 ways to lose $5? I only get 3 ways to lose $5
5 5
6 4
4 6
But I do get the HE and understand that I'm better off without laying the 10 for the come-out... Thanks

where can you lay the 10 for less than $41?????

online

Quote: WOOUSER

I get the 6 ways to lose $2.75
3 4
4 3
5 2
2 5
6 1
1 6
But 5 ways to lose $5? I only get 3 ways to lose $5
5 5
6 4
4 6
But I do get the HE and understand that I'm better off without laying the 10 for the come-out... Thanks

5-6
6-5

2 bad things about hedging come to mind

*since you are making another bet to hedge, you are now putting more into action against a house edge

*it lowers the variance - tamping down on wider swings in luck. However, in negative expectation, variance is your only hope

are there no good things?

*the Wizard cites hedging as an OK thing if "life changing" amounts are involved.

*sometimes you might legitimately want less variance. Almost always, though, there are better ways. Craps in particular gives a good example, the variance is very low for the basic game, but increases with continuous DC/Come betting and especially with Odds betting. To cut down on Variance, simply don't go crazy with these things!

This Q is for all...
So if there isn't a way to lower or beat the house odds why do we play? Do we simply bet low until the variance swings in our favor -then raise the bet?

And if we only have about 7-rolls per-shooter why would we bet the the Come or the Don't Come after a point is established? Doesn't that also raise the house edge which would mean I lose my bankroll even faster?

Can anyone tell me how to beat the game of Craps?

Quote: WOOUSER

Can anyone tell me how to beat the game of Craps?

You can't.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

You can't.

Funny, esp w the name "I beat..."

Quote: WOOUSER

Funny, esp w the name "I beat..."

But does it end with "....craps"?

Quote: WOOUSER

So if there isn't a way to lower or beat the house odds why do we play?

I play because it's fun.

Quote: Calder

I play because it's fun.

Lets be honest... We all play hoping we can win :)

Of course, but I have no illusions about beating the game.

Quote: WOOUSER

And if we only have about 7-rolls per-shooter why would we bet the the Come or the Don't Come after a point is established?

In pretty much the same way video poker players play triple games, five games, 10 games or even 50 or 100 a time, that can be worked up to six simultaneously in craps. Although if one has confidence in the VP pay tables, some slight advantage accrues with the addition of more games.