Booming Stock Market

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/18/us/unmasking-antifa-anti-fascists-hard-left/index.html

Usually don't have much good to say about CNN, but it's nice to see a story on these lunatics.

I hope all good Democrats stand up and condem these people and their behavior. There is no place in civilized society for them. Somehow I don't see Crazy Bernie and that Indian lady speaking out against them like our fine President did about White Supremacy and it's supporters.

Quote: Boz

http://www.cnn.com/2017/08/18/us/unmasking-antifa-anti-fascists-hard-left/index.html

Usually don't have much good to say about CNN, but it's nice to see a story on these lunatics.

I hope all good Democrats stand up and condem these people and their behavior. There is no place in civilized society for them. Somehow I don't see Crazy Bernie and that Indian lady speaking out against them like our fine President did about White Supremacy and it's supporters.

IMO it's unlikely many, at least on the left, will condemn antifa. It's not popular to condemn them....not to mention when/if you do, you'll be labeled a racist/bigot/Nazi/etc. But this is nothing new.

Quote: Boz

Love the term Alt Left. It allows one to separate these crazies from average hard working Democrats who are sick at what they see from these people who don't represent them or their views. And believe it or not, most Republicans don't agree with the White Supremacists who support Trump. But I'm sure that's hard for some to understand.

The Conservative and the Keynesian Socialist in agreement!

Seriously, you know I like you personally, but for us to agree on any political matter essentially proves that there is somewhere in the middle for any two people to meet!

I've honestly had enough of the PC-Committee myself, which is not to say that I disagree with all of their positions. I'm really just growing quite tired of them crapping upon the tenets of free speech and personal liberty. They're basically doing the same thing that they've accused Christian Conservatives of doing (stifling individual rights/liberties) for all of those decades.

Granted, I do agree with some of their actions. For example, if a business refuses to serve homosexuals, then I think it's perfectly fair to, 'Out,' the business for that reason and if people want to avoid them, so be it. There really is no compelling reason that a business, regardless of who owns it, should be jumping into the political fray. Serving every non-troublesome customer who walks in the door is a pretty easy tenet to follow, not to mention being the most profitable.

When it comes to the stifling of individual speech, though, I consider that ridiculous. I also consider it ridiculous to jump all over people who make intentionally misinterpreted innocuous statements, or at least, statements behind which the intent wasn't ill. "Pretentiously aggrieved," I think is the phrase I once used that Face liked so much.

Top-level men can't necessarily beat top-level women in tennis because biological imperatives are not PC-Friendly, that sort of thing.

Granted, the Alt-Left represents a minority of the, 'Left,' in the overall sense. Even with that, they've driven a self-identified Socialist out, so I hope they're happy with themselves. I'm not going to register or identify in any way as a, "Democrat," because I would just as soon not be associated with the Alt-Left. Unfortunately, "Socialist," also kind of does the same thing even though I don't think that PC-Friendliness is really a concern of the true Socialist. I could be a Libertarian Socialist, at least from the, "Do what you want on a personal level," sense, only problem being I believe in a strong central Government.

That's also not to say that I don't believe in individual Leftist agenda freedoms, because I most certainly do. For instance, I am:

Pro-Choice
Pro Gay Marriage
Pro Gay Adoption
Pro LGBTQ (Even though I don't really know what Q means)

Pro co-existence, really. I'm Pro-Christian, even though I'm not a Christian and I agree with Christians on almost nothing. I think Rick Santorum is a fundamentally nice guy who truly believes he has the best interests of the nation at-large at heart, even though I disagree with almost everything he says.

What bothers me more than anything is to see people openly hating one another for absolutely no reason rather than coming together to try to identify things that, even if we don't agree on, that we can at least work together on. Unfortunately, with this increased divisions into factions and sub-factions, I really don't see how that can ever work. We can get by as a society, at least, but I don't know that we'll ever perform as successfully as we might in ensuring that as many people as possible are happy.

Anyway, I guess I just don't belong anywhere politically. It's cool, I've always just voted for the candidate I like the best and/or agree with most for office, anyway. I think Gary Johnson would have done a fantastic job. I voted for him. Two-Party system, you know how it goes.

Maybe that's the other problem, the entire political process is a total binary, and as a result, what one says gets attributed to all of the others under that same umbrella. That's why I'm out in the rain, after all, don't want to call myself a, 'Democrat,' and be associated with the Alt-Left in the eyes of some.

I'm done ranting, apologies to whoever read this far. Sorry about that.

By definition, wouldn't someone who condemns anti-fascism be therefore pro fascist?

I'm not entirely on anyone's side, as I find no one is entirely on my side. That said, anyone who joins me in fighting Nazis is my ally, however temporary the alliance may be.

Quote: Mission146

When it comes to the stifling of individual speech, though, I consider that ridiculous.

consider the alternative to not at certain times stifling individual speech. imagine the president appointed an italian american cabinet secretary. and some extreme group wanted to pay for a political ad in the form of a poster on a publicly owned city bus saying "Throw That W** Out of the Cabinet." and the local authorities said that we need to accept that ad because otherwise we would be stifling individual speech. unfortunately with the energization of the far fringe right such a scenario is not even highly unlikely.

Quote: Mission146

When it comes to the stifling of individual speech, though, I consider that ridiculous.

I haven't actually decided on the particular situation of non-violent shouting down of speakers.

But that's because I also am tired of being told that money is speech, because that means more money is more speech. I don't see that as being a leveler of speech. So, if a crowd has the desire to shout people down, I find I am at best disinterested in the complaint at the moment.

I'm onboard with all other types of free speech except specific ones (fire in theater and the like)

Quote: lilredrooster

consider the alternative to not at certain times stifling individual speech. imagine the president appointed an italian american cabinet secretary. and some extreme group wanted to pay for a political ad in the form of a poster on a publicly owned city bus saying "Throw That W** Out of the Cabinet." and the local authorities said that we need to accept that ad because otherwise we would be stifling individual speech. unfortunately with the energization of the far fringe right such a scenario is not even highly unlikely.

That's not, "Individual speech," in the way that I mean. I mean that if they wanted to protest the guy being in the cabinet, then they should be able to have a non-violent protest. I don't mean that they should be allowed to buy ads...I mean, they should, but the city bus also would have the right to moderate what ads they will allow because they own the bus.

Quote: rxwine

I haven't actually decided on the particular situation of non-violent shouting down of speakers.

But that's because I also am tired of being told that money is speech, because that means more money is more speech. I don't see that as being a leveler of speech. So, if a crowd has the desire to shout people down, I find I am at best disinterested in the complaint at the moment.

I'm onboard with all other types of free speech except specific ones (fire in theater and the like)

I largely agree with you. I think that if there is going to be some sort of speech, protest or the like, that maybe we should have segregated (but Government-owned) areas for such speech or rallies to take place. It could even be a certain section of a public park. Whatever you wanted to rally in support of, then you would have to schedule the thing, and if people wanted to listen to you, they could.

That's the other thing that really bothers me about the pretentiously aggrieved, they gripe about what other people say even though they are not forced to listen to them.

So you think government property, and tax payer dollars should be allocated for Nazis and Klansmen to hold a rally? How about if 300 armed jihadists want to hold a rally at the site of the WTC? Couple hundred armed Black Panthers?

Quote: billryan

How about if 300 armed jihadists want to hold a rally at the site of the WTC? Couple hundred armed Black Panthers?

Absolutely, if other groups are afforded the right to protest armed in those places then they should be too. No matter what side of any free speech issue you are on you should be afforded the same rights.

Quote: billryan

So you think government property, and tax payer dollars should be allocated for Nazis and Klansmen to hold a rally? How about if 300 armed jihadists want to hold a rally at the site of the WTC? Couple hundred armed Black Panthers?

I think that people have a fundamental right to protest how the Government is being run, and also, I think having a finite area in which a rally could take place would at least serve to prevent such a rally from spilling out into the streets, leading to rioting, whatever. It wouldn't work 100% of the time, but nothing does.

Armed jihadists couldn't rally anywhere because they would be armed, and that is not conducive to a non-violent rally. In fact, if I were king, we'd have much stricter gun laws anyway. We wouldn't make the site of the WTC an authorized rally location, for obvious reasons.

But, yes, Nazis and Klansmen. I don't think we could allow people to rally or not rally based strictly upon how controversial/uncontroversial, popular/unpopular or generally socially acceptable (or not) their views are. Again, you wouldn't have to go to a rally organized by any such groups, nor would I and I would certainly not attend such a rally.

It's not really a question of who or what views, to me, it's a question of violent or non-violent.

Short Version: I'm really more concerned about people being hurt or losing their lives than I am with whether or not somebody is offended by something. I don't even think, "Offended," should be a thing, in the political sense.

I vaguely remember hearing about a university which had a "free speech circle" or some such thing in an area on campus, like a plaza or a quad.


My thoughts on free speech -- honestly, I'm not 100% for it. I don't like the idea a business, media, politician, statisian(sp?), etc. can flat out lie, bend the truth, or create a false narrative. Part of that is grey area, of course, but there's plenty that isn't. Now, I'm not talking about free speech where one gives their own opinion (more on this later). But I think people in power, whether political, business, media, research, etc. should be held to a standard where they can't manipulate the truth.

I'm not on Twitter much, but there's an abundance of fake news stories on Facebook. The most recent one I saw said the Mayweather fight was canceled because McGregor failed some drug test and Mayweather opted out of the fight. This particular news story isn't a huge issue because the subject isn't that important, but it's wrong nonetheless. It's becoming harder and harder to read an article and figure out if it's true or not. Oftentimes many sources have an article on the same subject, but they just quote each other as a source.

As far as giving your own opinion, it seems there have been more and more protests in the recent years. I don't know if that's because there actually are more protests, they're being covered by the media more, or I haven't been paying enough attention. Either way, it seems there have also been cases where people are being paid to attend a protest or a rally. I've seen some craigslist ads trying to get people to join in protests or rallies (one in Charleston (NC?) and another in Phoenix or Tucson in AZ).

So if I'm a big business, I can push this false narrative about a competing business, find 10,000 people to protest them for $10/hour for 8 hours and I only have to shell out $800,000? That doesn't include other protestors that show up whom I don't have to pay....and my competitor now has awful publicity.


You can make stats say whatever you want. Although this also goes along the line of all the BS PC we're seeing now a days. You can look at prison stats and see males make up more than their share of the prison population than the national population and conclude police target males. Or black people. Or straight people (idk about this one, it's an example). You can look at the NFL or NBA and conclude the team managers are racist because there are more black people than Asian or white people, than there are proportional to the national average. Or the same about NHL because there are more white people in it. Or a computer science or engineering major in a college because most are male. Or political science and underwater basket welding because there are more women. Instead of all that, maybe we should accept we are all different and different types of people are better at and prefer different things. Same goes with the supposed "wage gap", but I think that's a common knowledge myth now a days.

Quote: billryan

So you think government property, and tax payer dollars should be allocated for Nazis and Klansmen to hold a rally?

I lean left
Anti KKK and anti Nazi
but
They have a right to protest

Need to be heavily guarded by the police.
Protest permits for any UNARMED group gathering

Not enough police presence in Charlottesville
Protest permits should be denied for any armed group
I attended a Trump rally in Tampa. Massive police presence. They placed themselves right smack in the middle between the 2 groups
Completely peaceful due massive police presence.
Guardian Angels came to rumble and were left doing nothing but twiddling their thumbs

Quote: billryan

How about if 300 armed jihadists want to hold a rally at the site of the WTC? Couple hundred armed Black Panthers?

Armed jihadists and armed Black Panthers
of course not
Unarmed , then go ahead and protest
I used to live near DC
Seen just about every protest you can imagine
I attended a massive Palestinian protest in DC right on the Mall as a spectator
Still remember the chants. "Sharon and Hitler are the same, the only difference is their name"

Quote: Mission146

but the city bus also would have the right to moderate what ads they will allow because they own the bus.

except that the city bus is publicly owned and regulated by the city government. so, that would effectively amount to government censorship. which in this case or in similar cases i cannot disagree with,.

I tend to look at censorship more as stifling speech as opposed to just refusing to actively promote it.

After missing out on all the money you people made on bitcoin I feel I need to throw a little money onto something that has a chance to blow up in 5 years. So with this thinking I am thinking about a pot company. I have read a few articles about companies and there are so many out there in CA and NV that it is mind boggling. I am thinking I would take $600. Throw $200 onto 3 different companies that are trading for next to nothing and hope that one of them explodes for a 1200% gain or something. Does anyone have any that they like. Unlike AP moves this is probably something that can be shared as a few people aernt going to over price the stock.

One I was thinking about is TRTC

I know penny stocks are generally a terrible idea but people said that about bitcoin 6 years ago to.

Now the stock market is my wheelhouse!... I love a few stocks.... oh nevermind!

I have some money invested in three weed stocks, and they are all DOWN a lot today.

Very volatiile.

Tread lightly.

Quote: MrV

I have some money invested in three weed stocks, and they are all DOWN a lot today.

Very volatiile.

Tread lightly.

If , by chance, you are in ant of the Canadian weed stocks, don't worry period. The long-term growth story is intact. There are many Prophet Acres since they have gone up so quickly. Weed is going to be as common as alcohol in the future.. And we'd actually has medicinal benefits also. Im in EMHTF . I got in at 2:50 and sold a good portion at 6:50. I will buy back more next week.

If you ask why would I sell when I believe that the long-term will be upward from here... It is principle that whenever I make over a hundred percent return in short period of time I sell 75% and by back on dips...

Quote: WatchMeWin

If , by chance, you are in ant of the Canadian weed stocks, don't worry period. The long-term growth story is intact. There are many Prophet Acres since they have gone up so quickly. Weed is going to be as common as alcohol in the future.. And we'd actually has medicinal benefits also. Im in EMHTF . I got in at 2:50 and sold a good portion at 6:50. I will buy back more next week.

If you ask why would I sell when I believe that the long-term will be upward from here... It is principle that whenever I make over a hundred percent return in short period of time I sell 75% and by back on dips...

*Profit takers.. speech recognition typos

Had enough with Cryptos already? There is so much more upside.500K Bitcoin in 10 years.

Ethereum holding strong in the bloodbath. It is needed to buy Crypto Kitties. Not just another worthless token.

Quote: MaxPen

Had enough with Cryptos already? There is so much more upside.500K Bitcoin in 10 years.

Ethereum holding strong in the bloodbath. It is needed to buy Crypto Kitties. Not just another worthless token.

There are a few things that I still don't like about crypto. 1 is if you lose your code you lose the money. No way I am going to remember it in 10 years. There is also the chance that it becomes illegal. I also don't like that you have to declare it every year on your taxes. Also, even if it gets to 500k, that is only a 50 multiple on money today with a possibility of a huge downside. I am looking at the penny type stocks that even if they go to $0 I lose a few hundred but if they go to $300 then I am wealthy.

There will be serious dips and spikes along the way until regulators get on board and they create a true market to the cryptocurrency where there are sell side and buy-side to make the market. Once the government and regulatots get involved, the future is a cashless Society. The underlying technology of blockchain is the key to future emdeavors. There are several companies that are major players in this field. Even with the recent decrease in Bitcoin and Warren Buffett saying that Bitcoin will end badly, I still think Bitcoin will go back to near 18-20K at some point by the end of 2018. My humble opinion.

Quote: WatchMeWin

There will be serious dips and spikes along the way until regulators get on board and they create a true market to the cryptocurrency where there are sell side and buy-side to make the market. Once the government and regulatots get involved, the future is a cashless Society. The underlying technology of blockchain is the key to future emdeavors. There are several companies that are major players in this field. Even with the recent decrease in Bitcoin and Warren Buffett saying that Bitcoin will end badly, I still think Bitcoin will go back to near 18-20K at some point by the end of 2018. My humble opinion.

That very well may happen but I don't think it is a great time to invest. In that scenario people who invest now will only double their money. I guess that is ok but I am looking for a home run type of thing. If I swing and miss then so be it.

Bulls make money.
Bears make money.
Pigs get slaughtered.

One of the great truisms of all time.

Quote: billryan

Bulls make money.
Bears make money.
Pigs get slaughtered.

One of the great truisms of all time.

moved 25% of my portfolio from S+P 500 to bonds on Jan 2.
S+P up 5%, Bonds down 1% so far. :(

uugggg... please Trump say something STUPID and start this correction already!

Quote: 100xOdds

moved 25% of my portfolio from S+P 500 to bonds on Jan 2.
S+P up 5%, Bonds down 1% so far. :(

uugggg... please Trump say something STUPID and start this correction already!

Did that last year. Took the proceeds from the sale of a house and put it in a mildly aggressive fund. Moved it into a very conservative fund the first week of November. Probably cost me $20K, but such is life. Any other year, a 14% increase would have been great.
Last year, it felt small.

Quote: billryan

Bulls make money.
Bears make money.
Pigs get slaughtered.

One of the great truisms of all time.

Sounds like a Jim Cramer - ism.... and it is 100% accurate, Bill.
It follows the philosophy of Hit and Run. Weather on the tables, or in the stock market, it is always wise to take profits when you can and if you need to continue to gamble or risk money, just use portions of your profit and let it ride.
I would presume that the ones that love to swing for the fences all the time do not have a good track record of success. It sounds cool to some and maybe you're considered to have big balls, but it is not wise.

I have a buddy who talks like that every time we go to the casinos together. Guess who always ends up broke and asking to borrow money? I'll give you a hint... Not me.

A book I read early in my BJ education taught me all I needed for these situations.
Don't try to take the whole house, take it bit by bit.
Look around the fancy room the casino was nice enough to give you for free and decide this trip I'm going to win enough for the pillows. Next trip, i earn enough for the sheets. Little by little, all the casino has will be mine, and the casino will never notice. Death by a thousand cuts.

A lot of people credit Cramer for that saying, but I believe it predates him.

Quote: 100xOdds

moved 25% of my portfolio from S+P 500 to bonds on Jan 2.
S+P up 5%, Bonds down 1% so far. :(

I think you were only a month early (stop listening to BBB's broker :-P), Tax Reform wasn't effectively priced in over the holidays, giving us a very nice Jan...but I would move the bonds to cash and bring your cash % up to 35%-40% of the total portfolio. I did that this week having an 8% rate of return YTD...market is going to rest a bit from here...but hey, still leaving 60% on the table, so I must not be that convinced :-).

I haven't been in bonds for a long time and mostly been wrong as interest rates stayed low for a lot longer than I expected. But now bonds are scary, they don't do well in a rising interest rate environment and rates are going up this year and beyond. Mid to Long Term Bonds are the biggest asset bubble out there in my opinion.

I don't think you are going to miss out on that much in equities for the balance of 2018 until we have a correction. Tacking on an additional 10%+ return from here on top of the 2017 run seems unlikely without a pause/dip. Tax Reform is priced in, economy isn't going to surprise to the upside from current expectations and equities are going to battle higher interest rates, higher energy prices and a tired consumer as a result...I just don't see the catalysts for an overall move inthe market...banks will continue to do better as rates rise...I am projecting a 12% rate of return for S&P 500 for all of 2018, Naz will do slightly better. But neither will be launched from the January gains, I predict you'll get a chance to buy back in at the Jan 1st levels later this year....I would guess late March/Early April time frame.

It is going to be a stock pickers market as the indexes are over priced in totality. Will use dry powder to execute on those. You can find some value & "growth at a reasonable price" in specific securities, but it isn't a long list. Of course I wouldn't need to work anymore if my predictions were anymore accurate than anyone else.

Quote: Paradigm

I think you were only a month early (stop listening to BBB's broker :-P), Tax Reform wasn't effectively priced in over the holidays, giving us a very nice Jan...but I would move the bonds to cash and bring your cash % up to 35%-40% of the total portfolio. I did that this week having an 8% rate of return YTD...market is going to rest a bit from here...but hey, still leaving 60% on the table, so I must not be that convinced :-).

I haven't been in bonds for a long time and mostly been wrong as interest rates stayed low for a lot longer than I expected. But now bonds are scary, they don't do well in a rising interest rate environment and rates are going up this year and beyond. Mid to Long Term Bonds are the biggest asset bubble out there in my opinion.

I don't think you are going to miss out on that much in equities for the balance of 2018 until we have a correction. Tacking on an additional 10%+ return from here on top of the 2017 run seems unlikely without a pause/dip. Tax Reform is priced in, economy isn't going to surprise to the upside from current expectations and equities are going to battle higher interest rates, higher energy prices and a tired consumer as a result...I just don't see the catalysts for an overall move inthe market...banks will continue to do better as rates rise...I am projecting a 12% rate of return for S&P 500 for all of 2018, Naz will do slightly better. But neither will be launched from the January gains, I predict you'll get a chance to buy back in at the Jan 1st levels later this year....I would guess late March/Early April time frame.

It is going to be a stock pickers market as the indexes are over priced in totality. Will use dry powder to execute on those. You can find some value & "growth at a reasonable price" in specific securities, but it isn't a long list. Of course I wouldn't need to work anymore if my predictions were anymore accurate than anyone else.

My broker doesn't like bonds. He has the same reservations you mentioned. He got me into 2 new mutual funds with matured money that needed placement. One has 20 or so US blue chips I like, the other is about 16 foreign companies. He thinks the world market looks very good right now, and a nice diversification from the US correction happening. Though apparently this week's dive was primarily a reaction to BH, Amazon etc doing a private health consortium.

I'm buying white metals and mining stocks like it ain't, no, thang.

#unfadeable

I've got about 15 different cannabis stocks, most Canadian but some with US tentacles and one Australian grower. It's a very rocky road, but it's been profitable so far. Right now the sector is way down, but as they sort things out, (Aphria divesting their US holdings, existing companies spending way to much on buying other companies while diluting shares, and finality on if recreational will start on July 1 or sometime in the fall), they'll go up again. I've recently read that Aphria, which dropped from near $20 US to currently $12.64 US, was estimated by analysts as being worth between $23 and $26, (not sure if that is US or Canadian, but I'd guess the later).

US stocks are riskier due to the fact that it is technically illegal here. That means that 1) they can't write off expenses on taxes so the tax they pay is huge, and 2) they can't get insurance so some farms in California had losses of 8 million they had to eat, and 3) there are also fewer public companies to invest with in part because they don't have banking services. I think it will change, probably soon, but who knows when. As for TRTC, I've followed it for a while and couldn't find any compelling reason to buy it. Share price has moved very slowly compared to similar stocks and it doesn't seem like investors are very interested in it. That may be due in part to their being some accusations that management had structured things mostly to benefit themselves.

Right now everything is on sale, but the big 3; Canopy Growth, Aphria, and Aurora are still all pretty pricey. You can find a few with lower entry points around $2, such as WeedMD, AbbCann, AusCann, and Cannabis Wheaton, (the latter uses a different "streaming" model where they loan money and expertise to growers in exchange for future product or payment).

I'll throw one other out for consideration that is only a partial cannabis stock;
Aequus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (AQSZF)
The market cap is only about 20 million, and it's selling at .26 now. The CEO has experience in the sector, and sold or partnered with Merck in a previous business. He also just bought close to a million shares, at least according to others.

They do have things they are working on, things that make me believe they have a shot at succeeding. This was posted in the last couple of days:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/aequus-camargo-prepare-meeting-fda-130000429.html

This post has additional info:
https://investorshub.advfn.com/Aequus-Pharmaceuticals-AQSZF-31283/

It's quite possible it will all fall apart, but if they do manage to do what the are trying to then it would be a home run.

Of course you shouldn't buy anything until you do your own diligence :)

Very kind of you to post such in-depth info. Thanks!

"Due diligence?"

I read a few recommendations on the 'net then jumped in.

The three weed stocks I bought this past fall, and their appreciation rat since then:

XXII: 45%

KSHB: 227%

ACBFF; 247%

Luck happens

Quote: MaxPen

Had enough with Cryptos already? There is so much more upside.500K Bitcoin in 10 years.

Ethereum holding strong in the bloodbath. It is needed to buy Crypto Kitties. Not just another worthless token.

Quote: GWAE

There are a few things that I still don't like about crypto. 1 is if you lose your code you lose the money. No way I am going to remember it in 10 years. There is also the chance that it becomes illegal. I also don't like that you have to declare it every year on your taxes. Also, even if it gets to 500k, that is only a 50 multiple on money today with a possibility of a huge downside. I am looking at the penny type stocks that even if they go to $0 I lose a few hundred but if they go to $300 then I am wealthy.

Next time I will use a sarcasm disclaimer.

Quote: MrV

"Due diligence?"

I read a few recommendations on the 'net then jumped in.

After being in the sector for 1 year I had one stock over 1,000% and a few in the 400%-850% range, the lowest ones were still up 40+%, and my overall gain from the sector was about 250%. I'm down some now, but I expect most or all of what I own to go higher in the future. My faith is in large part because I did research them before I bought and believe they have the right stuff to thrive. Others I'm less sure of.

I believe that a lot of the "irrational exuberance" in the sector has eroded and going forward we'll see more emphasis on fundamentals. Sure, there will be some big upswings but now that a lot of these stocks cost "real money", (and there has been a large tumble), I expect to see a more cautious approach. While that probably isn't better for those who want to get in and out quickly, it should be better for the sector overall. And I do believe the sector has phenomenal potential.

I should also mention that I've read 2 different articles recently about smaller companies/growers, both stating that 1) the little guys probably won't make it on their own once the recreational market is up and running and 2) most of the big guys have bought as many other companies as they need so these small caps are unlikely to be bought out. That may include some of the cheap stocks I mentioned above. I think at least some of them will see a lot of growth before recreational cannabis is legal in Canada, but I'd watch 'em real close after that.

I've been long since the beginning, but I'm not sure what the future will bring after recreational begins. I've seen a lot of number crunching that validates share prices but the reality is nobody knows just how profitable it will be. I'll be watching closely when the first quarterlies come in.

One last thing, if you see a new stock come out named anything along the lines of "Block Chain Cannabis Co." Buy it. Sell your house to buy as much as you can. It will be completely worthless of course, but if you get in early you'll probably double your money overnight :)

My weed stocks are plunging again today, egad.

see: news article

I am setting aside some money for a large purchase in about 1-2 years. I want a little more return than a savings account, but not as risky as anything involving equities. I had been putting money in FLBAX (long term treasury bond fund) but the last couple years of that haven't exactly been stellar.

I can't go with a CD, because I'm adding money 1-2 times a month, and I'll need to pull it out all at once, and I don't want to open up a new account in one of those high-interest online banks. Should I just stick with the bond fund, or simply put everything into my standard savings account? Honestly I guess I'm just trying to just stay above inflation if possible.

Quote: MrV

My weed stocks are plunging again today, egad.

see: news article

It's because I am cursed in life. I think about buying it and they plunge. The universe thinks I already bought it. See I know how to out smart my curse.

Quote: TigerWu

I am setting aside some money for a large purchase in about 1-2 years. I want a little more return than a savings account, but not as risky as anything involving equities. I had been putting money in FLBAX (long term treasury bond fund) but the last couple years of that haven't exactly been stellar.

So you believe that interest rates will stay flat or go down over your investment time horizon for this money? That is what an investment in Long Term Bonds is hoping occurs.

Quote: Paradigm

So you believe that interest rates will stay flat or go down over your investment time horizon for this money? That is what an investment in Long Term Bonds is hoping occurs.

I honestly don't know... :( I just wanted an investment that was safer than equities but more aggressive than a savings account, for maybe 1-2 years. I mean, obviously I know there's no guarantees in investing, I'm just talking overall chances.

Do you have any suggestions I can research?

Quote: TigerWu

Should I just stick with the bond fund, or simply put everything into my standard savings account?

you would make considerably more on average in a bond fund than in a savings account. since interest rates are very low now and might go up because of a booming economy you should look for a fund that features short term bonds. when interest rates go up the price of bonds goes down. but a fund with many short term bonds is not nearly as adversely affected as a fund with long term bonds. when the short term bonds expire the manager will buy other short term bonds that because interest rates have gone up will have a higher yield and he will buy them at a lower price. there is risk, but you should be able to find some that are categorized as low risk. many of these bonds are called "junk bonds" or junkers; but that name shouldn't discourage you. the manager is buying several hundred and a good manager will almost always have just a few that have performed very poorly and a few that have soared. one of these funds that I own has gone up every single year except for 3 years since 1995. that's 23 years. in two years there was a small loss of about 1% and during the 2008 disaster it lost much less than equity funds. since its inception in December 1978 this fund has averaged 8,43%. of course, if there is a financial disaster such as a recession, every single kind of investment will be affected and a fund such as this will surely sustain a loss, but most probably a considerably lesser loss than equity funds.

Down 500 points so far today

Quote: terapined

Down 500 points so far today

everything is down today including bonds and gold

Quote: odiousgambit

everything is down today including bonds and gold

It's what happens when a moron tries to burn down a house in order to change some wallpaper.

Quote: billryan

It's what happens when a moron tries to burn down a house in order to change some wallpaper.

That is funny.

I almost never make predictions about the stock market.

But I'm going to make an exception.

I'm going to predict that on Monday, the traders who sat on the sidelines during Friday's carnage are going to get back into action heavily on the buy side and the market as a whole will go significantly up on Monday.

The indexes that most closely reflect the market as a whole, and fell a lot on Friday, will do very well.

Bear markets are very closely correlated to recessions, and there is no recession in sight right now.

And if I'm wrong, no, I won't be giving out my home address to anyone.

The only thing predictable about the stock market is how unpredictable it can be. So often you see good companies with good earnings get thrashed, while bad earnings sometimes bring big gains. We're just fleas riding along with whatever the big folks want to do.

I certainly don't know what will happen, but my inclination is that the blood letting isn't over yet. In the Trump thread rxwine posted this article that states the government is is set to borrow a trillion dollars this year, nearly twice what it was last year, (hat tip and thanks to rxwine for posting that). If that's splashed across all the financial pages tomorrow I can't see how it would end up being a good day, (which probably means it will go up 1000 points :) .

On the flip side, I think the cannabis stocks "may" be at or near the end of their down slide. I've watched this sector for over a year and it seems to be at least somewhat dissociated with US stocks. It has mostly fallen on it's own, and when the US market is falling the Canadian cannabis stocks are often rising. This time they just happened to mesh.

The drop to our north has been more significant than here, at least to date. Some of the big ones:
Aurora: -42%
Canopy Growth: -42%
Aphria: -39%
Wheaton: -35%

The cannabis stocks were overvalued based on current earnings, but this was always about the potential. My guess is that future rises will be a little slower and more cautious, at least until earnings from recreational sales start kicking in which will be at least 6 months away. In the meantime, exports should start to boost sales.

I have no plans to buy in the US market in the near future, but I'm going to be watching the cannabis sector closely. To me it seems like there are a lot of bargains and I'll probably bolster some of my existing positions when it starts to turn.

And if I'm 100% wrong about any or all of the above it won't surprise me one bit, but I thought it was a fun exercise anyway.