billryan
billryan
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August 11th, 2016 at 4:10:35 PM permalink
Quote: AZDuffman

The thing on Jordan was at the time he was the best player in the NBA bar none. To leave that and go to "slightly above average" is not easy. He had to be thinking, "OK, had my fun, do I really want this?" Tebow does not have that issue, he may stick around. Minor leagues will do all kinds of things to sell tickets.



If he shows any skills, he can put together a team of Christian players and go barnstorming. Most major league stadiums are empty half the time, he might sell a good amount of tickets in the heartland. Toss in a Christian Rock concert after the game and you got a feel good festival.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
Mosca
Mosca
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August 11th, 2016 at 4:19:36 PM permalink
When Britney Griner was dominating WCBB, I would get these kinds of discussions from people who thought she could play in the NBA. Those discussions were a lot more ludicrous, but the point is the same.

IF Tebow had concentrated on baseball, his chance of becoming a MLB player; not a star, but just making it to an MLB roster; goes like this:

5.6% of high school players make a college team. About 10.5% of college players get drafted. And about 10% of minor leaguers make it to MLB. Not necessarily as stars, or even starters, or even bench players. That 10% includes guys who get called up, sit on the bench, and get sent down three days later.

Were he to skip college, .5% of high school players get drafted by an MLB team. He would probably get drafted, but who could say whether he would land in the 25% of first rounders who make up the bulk of players who get to the bigs, or would he go in the 7th round, where the odds are immensely less favorable?

So, even without skipping 11 years, the odds would be severely against him. People just don't understand how hard the game is.
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TwoFeathersATL
TwoFeathersATL
Joined: May 22, 2013
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August 11th, 2016 at 5:09:41 PM permalink
Do not forget, he may have God on his side.
That has to change the odds a bit.
You can decide for yourself which direction that changes the odds.
To each his own.

I did post this in the Vegas Hookers thread, right ;-?
Youuuuuu MIGHT be a 'rascal' if.......(nevermind ;-)...2F
DrawingDead
DrawingDead
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August 11th, 2016 at 5:49:43 PM permalink
I took the high school batting average comment as a 'tongue-in-cheek' half-kidding sort of remark.

But whatever the Tebow guy may do, this has reminded me that I'm overdue to check out the nearby 'home team' again. That'd be the fabulously welcoming Las Vegas Area 51s (NY Mets AAA farm team) who have a 4 game series starting tomorrow with the world renowned New Orleans Zephyrs (Miami Marlins AAA farm team). Tickets for the spectacular occasion will set me back the princely sum of $11 + tax, and if I go Saturday I get a free backback with that cool alien head logo on it. Or on Monday their promotion sponsored by a supermarket chain is to price hot dogs, popcorn, Cracker Jack, and pretzels all at one dollar; and that's a promotion that can put my butt in their seat. I expect I may see someone who'll eventually become a star or at least a pretty darn good player, someone else who'll manage to put together a career as a useful bench player or situational specialist type for someone, and a few dozen others giving it everything they've got that'll eventually be telling their grandkids that they actually played with 'that guy' back in the day. And I also expect that I may not have much better than a vague guesstimate of which of them will turn out to be what.

Nevermind.
Ayecarumba
Ayecarumba
Joined: Nov 17, 2009
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August 11th, 2016 at 7:43:26 PM permalink
Quote: Mosca

When Britney Griner was dominating WCBB, I would get these kinds of discussions from people who thought she could play in the NBA. Those discussions were a lot more ludicrous, but the point is the same.

IF Tebow had concentrated on baseball, his chance of becoming a MLB player; not a star, but just making it to an MLB roster; goes like this:

5.6% of high school players make a college team. About 10.5% of college players get drafted. And about 10% of minor leaguers make it to MLB. Not necessarily as stars, or even starters, or even bench players. That 10% includes guys who get called up, sit on the bench, and get sent down three days later.

Were he to skip college, .5% of high school players get drafted by an MLB team. He would probably get drafted, but who could say whether he would land in the 25% of first rounders who make up the bulk of players who get to the bigs, or would he go in the 7th round, where the odds are immensely less favorable?

So, even without skipping 11 years, the odds would be severely against him. People just don't understand how hard the game is.



Very eye opening stats... I'm guessing the number of pitching prospects who don't work out must skew the totals. Are there stats on just DH's or outfielders?
America is all about speed. Hot, nasty, bad-ass speed. - Eleanor Roosevelt, 1936
billryan
billryan
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August 11th, 2016 at 8:26:47 PM permalink
Without opening any old wounds, didn't kewljason say he was a top ballplayer whose team went very deep into the Florida State Championship tournament. I'd imagine they are roughly the same age. I wonder if he'd have any insight into it. Some of you chat with him, no?
One of my friends from high school didn't play baseball for the school because he played soccer. After a year at the Army Prep school didn't work out, he was a walk on at a local college, where he made All American for Division 2. He spent almost ten years in the minors, and despite making several AA and AAA All Star squads, he never even got a September call up.The best guy from my HS team was an undrafted free agent. Who lasted two years in the low minors.
It's hard.
It's what you do and not what you say If you're not part of the future then get out of the way
Mosca
Mosca
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August 12th, 2016 at 4:40:25 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Very eye opening stats... I'm guessing the number of pitching prospects who don't work out must skew the totals. Are there stats on just DH's or outfielders?



I don't know, I'm not motivated enough to separate them. But regarding pitchers, the odds are so bad that there is a popular acronym: TINSTAAPP. There is no such thing as a pitching prospect. Think Brien Taylor.
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Mosca
Mosca
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August 12th, 2016 at 4:43:26 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

I took the high school batting average comment as a 'tongue-in-cheek' half-kidding sort of remark.

But whatever the Tebow guy may do, this has reminded me that I'm overdue to check out the nearby 'home team' again. That'd be the fabulously welcoming Las Vegas Area 51s (NY Mets AAA farm team) who have a 4 game series starting tomorrow with the world renowned New Orleans Zephyrs (Miami Marlins AAA farm team). Tickets for the spectacular occasion will set me back the princely sum of $11 + tax, and if I go Saturday I get a free backback with that cool alien head logo on it. Or on Monday their promotion sponsored by a supermarket chain is to price hot dogs, popcorn, Cracker Jack, and pretzels all at one dollar; and that's a promotion that can put my butt in their seat. I expect I may see someone who'll eventually become a star or at least a pretty darn good player, someone else who'll manage to put together a career as a useful bench player or situational specialist type for someone, and a few dozen others giving it everything they've got that'll eventually be telling their grandkids that they actually played with 'that guy' back in the day. And I also expect that I may not have much better than a vague guesstimate of which of them will turn out to be what.



I did too, but people latch onto strange stuff as evidence. I hit .830 in my last year of Little League. I was also 6 feet tall when I was 12.

We're thinking of going to a game on Sunday, it depends on the weather, chance of thunderstorms.
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Joeman
Joeman
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August 12th, 2016 at 5:54:11 AM permalink
Quote: DrawingDead

I took the high school batting average comment as a 'tongue-in-cheek' half-kidding sort of remark.

Yes, it was. Heck, I hit .520 in my last year of Little League (actually YMCA league). I didn't even make my Junior High team the next year.

BTW, with a .266 slugging pct and a .952 fielding average in AA, I'm not sure if I would call MJ "better than average." He may have had potential, but we will never know.

Quote:

On Monday their promotion sponsored by a supermarket chain is to price hot dogs, popcorn, Cracker Jack, and pretzels all at one dollar; and that's a promotion that can put my butt in their seat.

Gotta love those Minor League promotions. The Suns have $1 beers on Thursdays. That got me out to see Giancarlo Stanton (he was "Mike Stanton" back then) a few years back. He was considerate enough to hit a home run for me that game.

Of the more memorable promotions (that I did not go to) was "Wrestling Night," where they set up a ring at home plate after the game and had aging WWF (not WWE!) stars battle it out. Also memorable (or perhaps infamous) was "Tonya Harding Bat Night," where they gave away mini-bats, and Tonya Harding was there to sign them, if you wanted. As Nancy Kerrigan would say, Whyyyyyyyyyyy?
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
Mosca
Mosca
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August 12th, 2016 at 6:31:57 AM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Very eye opening stats... I'm guessing the number of pitching prospects who don't work out must skew the totals. Are there stats on just DH's or outfielders?



"Eye opening": the average MLB player has 20/12 vision. Most charts only go to 20/15. The human limit is 20/8.

It's not just athleticism. It's also about freakish gifts in other areas.
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