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rxwine
rxwine
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March 20th, 2017 at 11:15:32 AM permalink
Quote: Joeman


BTW, If I were #4, I would have bid $801 (or maybe $815 to look like less of a jerk on national TV!). Contestants typically undervalue items up for bid, and the manufacturers seem to pump up their MSRP.



Think 801 or 726 is the correct bid for 4. Depending on if you think 800 is already too high.
It's so overt, it's covert.
Mission146
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March 20th, 2017 at 11:25:52 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Wtf is wrong with people on the price is right. Item doesn't matter but bidding went like this, in this order. It happens like this all the time.

600, 725, 800, 695

I mean really? At least two of these people are idiots.



The second and third are not, only the last person can, "Add one," because if the second or third do it, then the third or fourth could just, "Add one." The last person is an idiot for not going, "601," yes, but my guess on the third person is they actually believed it was $800+ and figured if they went, "$726," the last person might say, "$727."

The third person is pretty much screwed on The Price is Right no matter what. They can't, "One dollar," it because, if the last person thinks it is lower than the (then) second-lowest bid, the last person can go, "Two dollars."

If the third person thinks it is greater than the highest of the first two bids, they can't just add a dollar to the highest of the two because the last person could just add a dollar to that.

They kind of are forced (in my opinion) into either making the lowest bid (but more than one dollar) hoping that the last person will say, "One Dollar," and the item will be more than the third person bid, or alternatively, picking some amount greater than the highest bid and hoping the fourth person likes an amount lower than the lowest bid and goes, "One Dollar," any amount between two bids, or is fairly stupid and guesses something more than one dollar greater.

Here are your only three really viable options to keep the last person from completely screwing you if you are third to bid:

LOWER (But more than $1)

BETWEEN The first and second bids.

HIGHER (But more than $1)

Because, more often than not, had the third person went $726, the fourth would have went $727 almost automatically.
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Mission146
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March 20th, 2017 at 11:26:43 AM permalink
Quote: rxwine

Think 801 or 726 is the correct bid for 4. Depending on if you think 800 is already too high.




The fourth should have bet $801, $601 or $1.

I suppose $726 is also acceptable, but I'd have to be really confident.
Vultures can't be choosers.
Mission146
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March 20th, 2017 at 11:34:04 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

Well for sure #4 but even #3. Why go 75 over, 726 would have been a better choice. If the the person is doing 727, then they were going to 1 up you anyways on your 800.



Not necessarily, the goal is to try to bet some amount greater than the current highest bid and hope the last person thinks it should be less than that, or alternatively, to bet some amount lower than the lowest bid and have the last person go $1. Alternatively, the third person can also pick some amount between the first and second bidders.

Those are the only ways not to risk getting completely shut out, more detail from me on the plight of the third bidder two posts ago...lol
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GWAE
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March 20th, 2017 at 11:39:13 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

The second and third are not, only the last person can, "Add one," because if the second or third do it, then the third or fourth could just, "Add one." The last person is an idiot for not going, "601," yes, but my guess on the third person is they actually believed it was $800+ and figured if they went, "$726," the last person might say, "$727."

The third person is pretty much screwed on The Price is Right no matter what. They can't, "One dollar," it because, if the last person thinks it is lower than the (then) second-lowest bid, the last person can go, "Two dollars."

If the third person thinks it is greater than the highest of the first two bids, they can't just add a dollar to the highest of the two because the last person could just add a dollar to that.

They kind of are forced (in my opinion) into either making the lowest bid (but more than one dollar) hoping that the last person will say, "One Dollar," and the item will be more than the third person bid, or alternatively, picking some amount greater than the highest bid and hoping the fourth person likes an amount lower than the lowest bid and goes, "One Dollar," any amount between two bids, or is fairly stupid and guesses something more than one dollar greater.

Here are your only three really viable options to keep the last person from completely screwing you if you are third to bid:

LOWER (But more than $1)

BETWEEN The first and second bids.

HIGHER (But more than $1)

Because, more often than not, had the third person went $726, the fourth would have went $727 almost automatically.



I still think 3rd should be 726. If they thought 800 was a good bid and was not worried about 801 then 726 would be better because the 4th person would still +1 him on either number.

Like you said though. The 3rd person is basically screwed unless they can get lucky.

Also coincidentally the prize was 1 year cell phone with data and a phone. That is pretty clear that 800 is way low as it was.
Mission146
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March 20th, 2017 at 11:55:48 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE



I still think 3rd should be 726. If they thought 800 was a good bid and was not worried about 801 then 726 would be better because the 4th person would still +1 him on either number.

Like you said though. The 3rd person is basically screwed unless they can get lucky.

Also coincidentally the prize was 1 year cell phone with data and a phone. That is pretty clear that 800 is way low as it was.



I don't think they were scared of $801, I think what they were scared of was going $726 which would instantly make the last person think, $727. What the third person is trying to do there is incentivize the last person into either middling himself and the second highest bidder (Bid $726), middle the second highest bidder and the lowest bidder ($601), or give them incentive to go $1.

Let's say it's an iPhone 7 with a year of phone and data for one person. The first two bids happened and I am the third bidder. I know that my T-Mobile is about $35/month with whatever it comes with, I think I'm limited on data, but I've never gone over. Okay, so that's $420 for the year. I want to say the iPhone7 retails for $799, or something like that, for the one with the best GB.

With that, we're looking at a little north of $1,200 with me being definitely confident that it is more than $1,000. If I go $726 (which I KNOW it's not) then the fourth person can go $727 and I absolutely do not win. However, since I am very confident it is definitely more than $1,000, I am just going to go $1,000 and hope the last person thinks it is between $726-$999 and bids $726.

If I was 100% confident that it is more than $1,100, then that is what I would do and hope the last person doesn't think it is that much.

Let's say it was an item that I KNEW was lower than $600,, but I knew had to be more than $400 and the two bids were $600 and $750:

I'm obviously not going $751 or $601, because I already firmly believe it is less than $600. I cannot go $1 because the last person could go $2, so I have to pick some number between $1 and $599 and hope the last person thinks it is even less than whatever number I have picked and goes $1.
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Joeman
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March 20th, 2017 at 12:00:27 PM permalink
Quote: Mission146

The third person is pretty much screwed on The Price is Right no matter what. They can't, "One dollar," it because, if the last person thinks it is lower than the (then) second-lowest bid, the last person can go, "Two dollars."

Saw this happen on the show once. Lady was so excited to be able to bid $1. She didn't care that there was a person behind her left to bid. It was if it was her goal to get to Contestant's Row and bid $1 on something. Actually winning was secondary.

I agree bidder #3 is pretty much screwed if #4 has any bit of savvy.

My favorite situation (as a viewer) is when a contestant bids $1, and the "exact price" bell goes off. Somebody's getting $500, but it ain't you, dollar boy!
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
GWAE
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March 20th, 2017 at 12:08:48 PM permalink
Quote: Joeman

Quote: Mission146

The third person is pretty much screwed on The Price is Right no matter what. They can't, "One dollar," it because, if the last person thinks it is lower than the (then) second-lowest bid, the last person can go, "Two dollars."

Saw this happen on the show once. Lady was so excited to be able to bid $1. She didn't care that there was a person behind her left to bid. It was if it was her goal to get to Contestant's Row and bid $1 on something. Actually winning was secondary.

I agree bidder #3 is pretty much screwed if #4 has any bit of savvy.

My favorite situation (as a viewer) is when a contestant bids $1, and the "exact price" bell goes off. Somebody's getting $500, but it ain't you, dollar boy!




I completely agree with this game theory, however in this case they only left a difference of 75 so there was no chance to catch the 4th in the middle. If I were 3rd on this one I would have gone 1100 or 1149 assuring no one was going over me, well with a reasonable doubt. I did $50 a month for a good plan with data and the cheapest phone I saw yesterday was 429 and this was a better phone. I am pretty confident in 600+549

If I bid 1100 then the 4th person should be locked in at 726.
Mission146
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March 20th, 2017 at 12:13:46 PM permalink
Quote: Joeman


I agree bidder #3 is pretty much screwed if #4 has any bit of savvy.

My favorite situation (as a viewer) is when a contestant bids $1, and the "exact price" bell goes off. Somebody's getting $500, but it ain't you, dollar boy!



That's a good one!
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Mission146
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March 20th, 2017 at 12:17:18 PM permalink
Quote: GWAE



I completely agree with this game theory, however in this case they only left a difference of 75 so there was no chance to catch the 4th in the middle. If I were 3rd on this one I would have gone 1100 or 1149 assuring no one was going over me, well with a reasonable doubt. I did $50 a month for a good plan with data and the cheapest phone I saw yesterday was 429 and this was a better phone. I am pretty confident in 600+549

If I bid 1100 then the 4th person should be locked in at 726.



We're basically in agreement, then, 100%. The only area where I was lacking based on your initial post is, as it turns out, the item is completely relevant, here! For example, if it was an item that I thought was less than $899, but KNEW was more than $800, then $800 would be a perfectly sensible bid hoping the last person thinks it is less than that.

I still don't think that the $800 bid is, "Stupid," because I think they were following the general idea of don't go $726 because the last person can go $727, but I agree it was not an Optimal bid based on the item in question.

EDIT: Except one thing, I think it should be about $1,200, so if you had bid $1,100 in third, I am still going to go $1,101 because I more firmly believe it is more than $1,100 as opposed to between $726-$1099, so I'm still going to $1 you (because I think it is around $1,200) but you'd at least be giving yourself a chance.
Vultures can't be choosers.

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