Variance in Blackjack has made me her b----....

I would normally post this as a blog post, except I'm sure more people feel this way...

For about the past year, Blackjack has been absolutely killer to me. It doesn't matter the rules (S17, H17, RSA or not, etc). It doesn't matter how many decks, although Double Deck is just outright cruel to me. It usually doesn't matter what decision I make, it won't make a difference. I cannot win a significant amount playing BJ anymore.

Double downs have almost left my vocabulary, regardless of what the dealer is showing (especially doubling a 10). Before you say "well that's where the money is at," I look at how many times I SHOULD have doubled and what the result was. I can safely say for the past year, it's a 55-45 in house's favor. Splits have fared a little bit better... but those are rare when I've been getting them.

Blackjacks have been favoring the house. My last session was 11-2 for the house (11 for the house, 2 for me) with a 9-0 run. If I have a 20, and the dealer is showing a face, he/she has a 20 or BJ. Made 20s are tough to get, and drawn hands don't end well. If I have 17, dealer has 18; you get the idea.

I think, in the long term, I had a lot of luck early on in my gambling. This is variance just getting the best of me. I don't doubt that eventually we can turn this beast around, but I've just about given up on playing BJ period.

I have pretty much figured I will play very little BJ anymore. I think I got to where I played correctly enough to be working only against the roughly 0.50% HE in games available around here. That sounded low enough to be winning almost half my sessions, but I no longer think so. I started comparing it to Craps, and have decided that there are two factors that kill you in BJ: the number of hands per hour is higher, each bet is resolved win, lose, or draw as soon as the dealer gets his final cards. Secondly, the variance is very low.

In Craps, the line bets are only resolved immediately part of the time and with free odds the HE can be made even lower most places. The variance means a wild ride but also chances to walk away a winner.

Not a card counter or anything, this leaves BJ as a curiousity game for me; I'll dabble in it since I learned how to play it, but long sessions are just crazy IMO.

PS: Regarding you subject line, just speaking for myself, I want more variance.

Quote: Tiltpoul

I would normally post this as a blog post, except I'm sure more people feel this way...

For about the past year, Blackjack has been absolutely killer to me. It doesn't matter the rules (S17, H17, RSA or not, etc). It doesn't matter how many decks, although Double Deck is just outright cruel to me. It usually doesn't matter what decision I make, it won't make a difference. I cannot win a significant amount playing BJ anymore.

Double downs have almost left my vocabulary, regardless of what the dealer is showing (especially doubling a 10). Before you say "well that's where the money is at," I look at how many times I SHOULD have doubled and what the result was. I can safely say for the past year, it's a 55-45 in house's favor. Splits have fared a little bit better... but those are rare when I've been getting them.

Blackjacks have been favoring the house. My last session was 11-2 for the house (11 for the house, 2 for me) with a 9-0 run. If I have a 20, and the dealer is showing a face, he/she has a 20 or BJ. Made 20s are tough to get, and drawn hands don't end well. If I have 17, dealer has 18; you get the idea.

I think, in the long term, I had a lot of luck early on in my gambling. This is variance just getting the best of me. I don't doubt that eventually we can turn this beast around, but I've just about given up on playing BJ period.

It sounds like you're only remembering the bad. Surely you've had some nice wins.

If you're not counting I wouldn't be too optimistic on turning things around. In the long term a basic strategy player will lose. How much depends on several factors including house edge and how well you use basic strategy.

The good news is that even with mistakes, your odds at blackjack are better than most casino games and slot machines.

Quote: 1BB

It sounds like you're only remembering the bad. Surely you've had some nice wins.

Yes, a long time ago. Over the course of the past year, I can distinctly remember about 4 shoes that I won more than 5 units at the end of the shoe. Actually, on this current trip, I did have one nice run; coupled with three bad ones.

I know the memory thing comes into play, and that's why this is just in gripes.

Quote: 1BB

If you're not counting I wouldn't be too optimistic on turning things around.

I know how to count, but don't really increase my bets accordingly. This year especially, when the count has been pretty high, the BJ's have gone over to the dealer's side, or I'll end up with face-small against a face card. It's my "luck" right now, and variance at this time has put me on the bad side of the coin.

I've had the same experience Tiltpoul. I rarely play BJ anymore, but here's my story from the last time I played.

My wife and I flew to Vegas to see The Eagles at MGM Grand Garden Arena on November 5. They will be touring in 2012 and I recommend you see them if you have the chance. Anyway, we sat down at a $25 table, 6 deck shoe S17, surrender allowed. I play a progression starting at 2 units, going to 1 unit on the first win and increasing 1 unit on each win thereafter. Back to 2 units after a loss. First hand I got 10 or 11, doubled and won, so I was up $100 already! But believe me that was the best it got. I lost $500 of my money, plus the $100 I won on the first hand, before that shoe was done. I surrendered 15 against a 10; that was a mistake because now the dealer recognized I knew basic strategy, and I never saw another 15 or 16. You may say that's a good thing, but no, instead I was getting 13's and 14's. I had three 12's during the shoe and drew a 10 on each one. Aren't the odds roughly 9/13 to draw a non-bust card to a 12? Less than a 3% chance of busting 12 with a 10 on the draw.

I can't remember the last time I had a winning session at blackjack.

You will bust a 12 with a 10 about 30%, not 3%.

Quote: Ibeatyouraces

You will bust a 12 with a 10 about 30%, not 3%.

You're right, I meant to say 3% chance of busting 3 12's in a row with a 10.

Quote: Tiltpoul

I would normally post this as a blog post, except I'm sure more people feel this way...

For about the past year, Blackjack has been absolutely killer to me. It doesn't matter the rules (S17, H17, RSA or not, etc). It doesn't matter how many decks, although Double Deck is just outright cruel to me. It usually doesn't matter what decision I make, it won't make a difference. I cannot win a significant amount playing BJ anymore.

Double downs have almost left my vocabulary, regardless of what the dealer is showing (especially doubling a 10). Before you say "well that's where the money is at," I look at how many times I SHOULD have doubled and what the result was. I can safely say for the past year, it's a 55-45 in house's favor. Splits have fared a little bit better... but those are rare when I've been getting them.

Blackjacks have been favoring the house. My last session was 11-2 for the house (11 for the house, 2 for me) with a 9-0 run. If I have a 20, and the dealer is showing a face, he/she has a 20 or BJ. Made 20s are tough to get, and drawn hands don't end well. If I have 17, dealer has 18; you get the idea.

I think, in the long term, I had a lot of luck early on in my gambling. This is variance just getting the best of me. I don't doubt that eventually we can turn this beast around, but I've just about given up on playing BJ period.

If you really expect to win playing BJ then the beast of burden is you.

Been there, brother. Not much you can except keep playing proper strategy, lower your limits, or learn disciplined counting/bet spreading. I can commiserate - have had it just as bad if not worse.

I'm really starting to hate blackjack. Last weekend playing a $10 min game, 6 deck shoe. I get a pair of 4's with $10 bet, against dealer 5. I have a positive count, remaining deck is ten rich, so I feel pretty good with the split, hoping for 5, 6 7 or ace so I can double. Well, I get another 4, split again and then draw queens on every one. Dealer shows a ten and draws a 4.