Poll

7 votes (77.77%)
1 vote (11.11%)
No votes (0%)
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1 vote (11.11%)

9 members have voted

WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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January 5th, 2017 at 6:27:26 AM permalink
For those who follow the stock market.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
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January 5th, 2017 at 6:41:14 AM permalink
Well, today doesnt look so promising. We are getting sooo close. But I think it will happen in the coming weeks.
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Boz
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January 5th, 2017 at 9:27:07 AM permalink
Always goes down as soon as I make my IRA deposit each January.
MathExtremist
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January 5th, 2017 at 9:37:33 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

Always goes down as soon as I make my IRA deposit each January.

Talk to your CPA about estimating your contribution and dividing it up over 12 months. You smooth out a lot of market volatility that way.

But if the market really does go down as soon as you make your payment, call me first: I'll short the market and cover your losses. :)
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Wizardofnothing
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January 5th, 2017 at 10:15:59 AM permalink
Good time to buy calls today
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Avincow
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January 5th, 2017 at 10:20:51 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Talk to your CPA about estimating your contribution and dividing it up over 12 months. You smooth out a lot of market volatility that way.

But if the market really does go down as soon as you make your payment, call me first: I'll short the market and cover your losses. :)




Never really understood that logic. Just put the full contribution in on Jan 1st if you have the money. Aren't you missing out on 11 months of return if you delay your investment until December? Don't try to time the market they say. I'm new to investing and try to use my gambling knowledge for understanding. Please explain.
Boz
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January 5th, 2017 at 10:46:56 AM permalink
Quote: Avincow

Never really understood that logic. Just put the full contribution in on Jan 1st if you have the money. Aren't you missing out on 11 months of return if you delay your investment until December? Don't try to time the market they say. I'm new to investing and try to use my gambling knowledge for understanding. Please explain.


ME is usually right when it comes to numbers, but I think you are correct in this case. There are advantages to dollar cost averaging, but I would like to see a performance chart over time of money invested on the first trading day of the year, versus divided equally over 12 months.

I did see something years ago about how much further you would be ahead by investing immediately compared to putting it in 16 months later, ie. 2017 contribution in April 2018. But it didn't compare to DCA over the year.

Either way, Thanks to ME for the advice.
WatchMeWin
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January 5th, 2017 at 12:07:51 PM permalink
For those into the stock market. I like AKAO very much. Strong antibacterial pipeline with great management. Other successful antibacterial focused biotech companies have been bought out by large pharma, as it is a hot area of pharma development.... AKAO will too be bought out in my opinion. Give it some time. Do you own DD and GL.
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Wizardofnothing
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January 5th, 2017 at 12:11:09 PM permalink
Ha,,,,, just for a sweat for the forum- I'll donate 20 percent of the profits to the football pool next year

https://imgur.com/gallery/PVr0m
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Ayecarumba
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January 5th, 2017 at 12:13:01 PM permalink
I think it depends on what the money that is not invested is doing. If it is earning in a contra fund some place (bonds, metals, real estate), you are actually taking a loss by pulling it out and putting it in a stock fund that is, temporarily at least, losing value. If it simply sitting in a pile under your mattress, by all means invest it on day 1.
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WatchMeWin
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January 5th, 2017 at 12:22:46 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Ha,,,,, just for a sweat for the forum- I'll donate 20 percent of the profits to the football pool next year

https://imgur.com/gallery/PVr0m



You dont mess around WofN! It sure looks like a real trade. Good luck... I think you will be pleased within time. Im giving it 2 years. It just made a huge move over the past few months due to positive clinical trial results. Approval is near.
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Wizardofnothing
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January 5th, 2017 at 12:32:43 PM permalink
It was only 500 shares- worth a shot
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WatchMeWin
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January 5th, 2017 at 12:39:58 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

It was only 500 shares- worth a shot



What trades to you like?
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Wizardofnothing
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January 5th, 2017 at 12:49:48 PM permalink
I'm in deep with 101 jan 17 calls for nvda. I like apple a lot and amd
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WatchMeWin
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January 5th, 2017 at 1:02:53 PM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

I'm in deep with 101 jan 17 calls for nvda. I like apple a lot and amd



Hopefully you just bought the nvda calls.. It has given back quite a bit the past week. Just after all of the upgrades. Aside from the recent pull back, I love NVDA . They are one of my top picks for the IOT play. I think AAPL has had its day in the sun and I much rather msft, fb, goog, amzn. Energy, Infrastructure, and Defense stocks should do quite well under the Trump Admin.
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MathExtremist
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January 5th, 2017 at 1:09:00 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

ME is usually right when it comes to numbers, but I think you are correct in this case. There are advantages to dollar cost averaging, but I would like to see a performance chart over time of money invested on the first trading day of the year, versus divided equally over 12 months.

Sorry, I thought you were talking about your prior year's contribution. If you already know what you can contribute for the coming year, yeah, do it now.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
WatchMeWin
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January 6th, 2017 at 8:54:59 AM permalink
Dow is now 31 points away from 20,000.. Come on Dow! I made a bet with a friend last year, when the Dow was under 17,000, that it will close over 20,000 within a year.. I have until Mid Feb. This is what I call a 'sweat' !
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
ontariodealer
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January 6th, 2017 at 9:28:01 AM permalink
fri jan 6 at 315 pm
get second you pig
WatchMeWin
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January 6th, 2017 at 12:13:22 PM permalink
Quote: ontariodealer

fri jan 6 at 315 pm



It has to close over 20,000. If it hits but pulls back before the market closes... it doesnt count. Very close now!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
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January 6th, 2017 at 12:27:03 PM permalink
We may see some option covering in the last half hour here upon opt expiration and push the dow over 20,000 to close.
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beachbumbabs
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January 6th, 2017 at 12:46:24 PM permalink
Fwiw, I talked to my FA yesterday, and I made 18% on my IRA money last year. Thanks, President Obama!

Was a lump sum rollover. I just left it alone.

I don't know how that compares to other 2016 returns, but I'm very satisfied.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
WatchMeWin
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January 6th, 2017 at 1:10:20 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Fwiw, I talked to my FA yesterday, and I made 18% on my IRA money last year. Thanks, President Obama!

Was a lump sum rollover. I just left it alone.

I don't know how that compares to other 2016 returns, but I'm very satisfied.



18% annual return is very good... and its tax free in your IRA! Most professional hedge funds dont even have that type of return.. they are happy if they can return 5-10% and think that is good. Your FA is doing a good job for you.
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WatchMeWin
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January 6th, 2017 at 1:12:08 PM permalink
As for the dow hitting 20,000.... Well it didnt close over it today... soooo frickin close! I feel that it will get there next week with earnings and financial sector leading the way!
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
ontariodealer
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January 6th, 2017 at 7:51:43 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

It has to close over 20,000. If it hits but pulls back before the market closes... it doesnt count. Very close now!



i missed that it said close over..........my call was less than 1 third of a point off though.
get second you pig
odiousgambit
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January 7th, 2017 at 3:01:46 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

18% annual return is very good... and its tax free in your IRA!

back to school for you - unless that's a Roth, which I doubt [and even then the gov got 'its']
Quote:

Most professional hedge funds dont even have that type of return.. they are happy if they can return 5-10% and think that is good. Your FA is doing a good job for you.

BBB, I would consider firing your FA. Yes, I said that for effect, but seriously, the only way you can get those kind of returns is very, very potentially nuts for someone retired or nearing retirement [which I believe fits the case]. Working out OK now but - do I have to go on? Nuff said, none of my business.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
WatchMeWin
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January 7th, 2017 at 5:42:01 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

back to school for you - unless that's a Roth, which I doubt [and even then the gov got 'its']

Note - An IRA is an account set up at a financial institution that allows an individual to save for retirement with tax-free growth or on a tax-deferred basis. The three main types of IRAs each have different advantages:
Traditional IRA - You make contributions with money you may be able to deduct on your tax return, and any earnings can potentially grow tax-deferred until you withdraw them in retirement.1 Many retirees also find themselves in a lower tax bracket than they were in pre-retirement, so the tax-deferral means the money may be taxed at a lower rate.
Roth IRA - You make contributions with money you’ve already paid taxes on (after-tax), and your money may potentially grow tax-free, with tax-free withdrawals in retirement, provided that certain conditions are met.2
Rollover IRA - A Traditional IRA intended for money "rolled over" from a qualified retirement plan. Rollovers involve moving eligible assets from an employer-sponsored plan, such as a 401(k) or 403(b), into an IRA.

BBB, I would consider firing your FA. Yes, I said that for effect, but seriously, the only way you can get those kind of returns is very, very potentially nuts for someone retired or nearing retirement [which I believe fits the case]. Working out OK now but - do I have to go on? Nuff said, none of my business.

Why is 18% nuts? It was very easily achievable this past year.

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odiousgambit
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January 7th, 2017 at 8:09:58 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Why is 18% nuts? It was very easily achievable this past year.



If you had all your funds in stocks it was doable, definitely better than the S&P 500 though. That kind of allocation would be for someone in their 20s, not someone at/near retirement.

BTW they say the millennials will hardly invest in stocks at all - only 1 in 3, and I suppose that means those that do invest cautiously.
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
GWAE
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January 7th, 2017 at 8:36:42 AM permalink
I know almost nothing abut the market but I have a question. When the market crashed my dad said he lost 80k from his 401k. Now that it is in better shape does that mean he should have recouped that plus a bunch or does the 20k mean nothing to him.
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WatchMeWin
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January 7th, 2017 at 8:37:21 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

If you had all your funds in stocks it was doable, definitely better than the S&P 500 though. That kind of allocation would be for someone in their 20s, not someone at/near retirement.

BTW they say the millennials will hardly invest in stocks at all - only 1 in 3, and I suppose that means those that do invest cautiously.



I understand your point.. The larger your portfolio becomes in value, the more conservative you become. Preservation mode.
Just dont put your money with Bill Ackman!
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beachbumbabs
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January 7th, 2017 at 9:12:00 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

back to school for you - unless that's a Roth, which I doubt [and even then the gov got 'its'] BBB, I would consider firing your FA. Yes, I said that for effect, but seriously, the only way you can get those kind of returns is very, very potentially nuts for someone retired or nearing retirement [which I believe fits the case]. Working out OK now but - do I have to go on? Nuff said, none of my business.



He has me in several relatively conservative mutual funds. His 10 year record on the strategy he's using has averaged 9.5% per annum, prior to this year, though he's been doing it for nearly 30 years.. He had a great year with it this year. My relatively small amount is riding along with several clients with 10x or more my assets, the type of investing not usually available to people at my level. So I won't be firing him any time soon.

He did, however, say I could bring a couple friends in if I wanted. They have to be willing to put their money in and leave it alone, as I have, rather than hitting it for funds or changes every couple of months. He doesn't gin fees; he buys and holds for extremely low cost to me, and has the volume to do well enough for himself without being greedy.

I know at least 3 honest brokers who are good at it; this guy, a good friend at Morgan Stanley corporate, and paradigm, though I know the least about paradigm. They are out there. They just don't get movies made about them.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
MathExtremist
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January 7th, 2017 at 9:40:09 AM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

BTW they say the millennials will hardly invest in stocks at all - only 1 in 3, and I suppose that means those that do invest cautiously.

So what will millennials do with their money once they start having some? I didn't do a ton of investing in my 20s other than corporate retirement matching (free money) but I'm in the market now. If a 20-something has an extra 20k, where do they put it? Kickstarter? Lending Club? A Japanese siphon coffee machine?
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2008/01/23/dining/23coff.html
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
WatchMeWin
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January 7th, 2017 at 9:43:14 AM permalink
The stock market is currently strong. Corporations are posting good earning and money is still pouring into the US from foreign countries. Although I do see a modest 5-10% correction within the next few months, I believe the stock market will continue to hold steady... as long as there is no catastrophic geopolitical event (but anything can happen with Trump). Although I do not believe the stock market is a true indication of a healthy economy... it is a mirage. Around 93 million Americans are out of work. That number will continue to grow as technology continues to take over the human workforce. Trump will try to keep jobs in America... we will see how that goes when the prices of goods go up. Do you know what they pay these people in China at the factories? VERY LITTLE! No one in America wants to work for peanuts. I will be extremely difficult to keep goods at current prices if we disallow China, etc to manufacture them for cheap or tax them heavily. (But then again, Trump will probably 'reconsider' China Trade relations as well.
As long as the stock market is doing well, then it is perceived that all Americans are doing well. It really just means that corporations have gotten a lot more leaner and are cutting costs were needed, ultimately posting strong earnings which drives value to the stock.
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WatchMeWin
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January 7th, 2017 at 9:49:13 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

So what will millennials do with their money once they start having some? I didn't do a ton of investing in my 20s other than corporate retirement matching (free money) but I'm in the market now. If a 20-something has an extra 20k, where do they put it? Kickstarter? Lending Club? A Japanese siphon coffee machine?
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2008/01/23/dining/23coff.html



Unfortunately, many of the recent graduates cant find a job after spending all of that money on college tuition... and many are living at home with parents. If they do have some extra money, the market is still the best place to invest in my opinion. 80% in conservative stocks then can still post 10% annual returns and possible yields, and 20% in more risky ventures where you take a shot.
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777
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January 7th, 2017 at 10:24:10 AM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

The stock market is currently strong. Corporations are posting good earning and money is still pouring into the US from foreign countries. Although I do see a modest 5-10% correction within the next few months, I believe the stock market will continue to hold steady... as long as there is no catastrophic geopolitical event (but anything can happen with Trump). Although I do not believe the stock market is a true indication of a healthy economy... it is a mirage. Around 93 million Americans are out of work. That number will continue to grow as technology continues to take over the human workforce. Trump will try to keep jobs in America... we will see how that goes when the prices of goods go up. Do you know what they pay these people in China at the factories? VERY LITTLE! No one in America wants to work for peanuts. I will be extremely difficult to keep goods at current prices if we disallow China, etc to manufacture them for cheap or tax them heavily. (But then again, Trump will probably 'reconsider' China Trade relations as well.
As long as the stock market is doing well, then it is perceived that all Americans are doing well. It really just means that corporations have gotten a lot more leaner and are cutting costs were needed, ultimately posting strong earnings which drives value to the stock.



The U.S. economy is highly dependent on consumer spending. Trade wars with China and many other foreign entities will hurt us more than benefit us, and will lead to inflation and retaliations. And the sad truth is we are addicted to cheap labor from the far east and south & central America, and consequently we need them more than they need us.

Trade wars could result in short term gain in employment, but in the long run they could be disastrous because of inflationary pressure that reduces consumer spending which will be a catalyst for much higher unemployment rate, and with higher unemployment rate, consumer spending will be much further reduced, and the cycle will repeat until Trump stop lying in his tweets to satisfy his ego.

Here is one example for retaliation, China and other countries could retaliate by canceling Boeing orders and opt for EU built Airbus aircraft. This type of retaliation could impact hundreds of thousands of high paying skill and manufacturing jobs. The eliminations these high paying jobs could have huge impact on other industries such as auto, housing, restaurant & services …
WatchMeWin
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January 7th, 2017 at 10:27:47 AM permalink
Quote: 777

The U.S. economy is highly dependent on consumer spending. Trade wars with China and many other foreign entities will hurt us more than benefit us, and will lead to inflation and retaliations. And the sad truth is we are addicted to cheap labor from the far east and south & central America, and consequently we need them more than they need us.

Trade wars could result in short term gain in employment, but in the long run they could be disastrous because of inflationary pressure that reduces consumer spending which will be a catalyst for much higher unemployment rate, and with higher unemployment rate, consumer spending will be much further reduced, and the cycle will repeat until Trump stop lying in his tweets to satisfy his ego.

Here is one example for retaliation, China and other countries could retaliate by canceling Boeing orders and opt for EU built Airbus aircraft. This type of retaliation could impact hundreds of thousands of high paying skill and manufacturing jobs. The eliminations these high paying jobs could have huge impact on other industries such as auto, housing, restaurant & services …



Agree.
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RogerKint
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January 7th, 2017 at 12:24:07 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

So what will millennials do with their money once they start having some? I didn't do a ton of investing in my 20s other than corporate retirement matching (free money) but I'm in the market now. If a 20-something has an extra 20k, where do they put it? Kickstarter? Lending Club? A Japanese siphon coffee machine?
http://mobile.nytimes.com/2008/01/23/dining/23coff.html



Gold, land and guns.
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777
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January 7th, 2017 at 2:51:30 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

Quote: 777

The U.S. economy is highly dependent on consumer spending. Trade wars with China and many other foreign entities will hurt us more than benefit us, and will lead to inflation and retaliations. And the sad truth is we are addicted to cheap labor from the far east and south & central America, and consequently we need them more than they need us.

Trade wars could result in short term gain in employment, but in the long run they could be disastrous because of inflationary pressure that reduces consumer spending which will be a catalyst for much higher unemployment rate, and with higher unemployment rate, consumer spending will be much further reduced, and the cycle will repeat until Trump stop lying in his tweets to satisfy his ego.

Here is one example for retaliation, China and other countries could retaliate by canceling Boeing orders and opt for EU built Airbus aircraft. This type of retaliation could impact hundreds of thousands of high paying skill and manufacturing jobs. The eliminations these high paying jobs could have huge impact on other industries such as auto, housing, restaurant & services …



Agree.



If Trump engages in trade war in a foolish manner, BA is a good stock to short. If I am a Boeing employee or own Boeing stock, I would worry very much about Trump’s Trade wars with the world.

Despite of huge gaps in income between CEOs and ordinary workers, the middle class and the poor enjoy decent standard of living or just able to survive on a day-to-day basis thanks to cheap labors from Far East, South & Central America.
WatchMeWin
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January 10th, 2017 at 1:47:56 PM permalink
Quote: WatchMeWin

You dont mess around WofN! It sure looks like a real trade. Good luck... I think you will be pleased within time. Im giving it 2 years. It just made a huge move over the past few months due to positive clinical trial results. Approval is near.



AKAO making moves! Over 16 after hours. Currently 500 million market cap. Certainly has over 1 billion market cap value once drugs are approved and to market. Hold tight!
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WatchMeWin
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January 11th, 2017 at 12:43:31 PM permalink
Banks earnings on Friday. This should to be the day for dow 20,000! As long as Trump keeps his frkn mouth shut ...
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WatchMeWin
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January 13th, 2017 at 7:55:20 AM permalink
Quote: Wizardofnothing

Ha,,,,, just for a sweat for the forum- I'll donate 20 percent of the profits to the football pool next year

https://imgur.com/gallery/PVr0m



AKAO over 17 already in just one week... Enjoy the ride !

Unfortunately, I dont think the dow will close over 20,000 today. Banks are very strong but not enough to push the market today. I fear my bet with my friend of it closing over 20k by mid February is in jeopardy.... but all aforementioned stocks are doing quite well.
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MathExtremist
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January 13th, 2017 at 8:35:59 AM permalink
Fewer Americans are in the market anyway. I just saw this article about the relative incomes of young adults today vs. 30 years ago:
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/01/13/millennials-are-falling-behind-their-boomer-parents.html

It's not sustainable. History is full of examples of what happens when too much wealth is concentrated in the hands of too few...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Boz
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January 13th, 2017 at 8:44:34 AM permalink
Just saying but if you are 4 years out of college and can only find a job making pizza for 18k a year, YOU are problem, not the system. The linked story is actually a good case against college and creating that much debt. Best bet is "Andrea" has made some bad choices in life but I'll bet those 4 years in college were a blast for her.

The Dow hitting the number next Friday would be a perfect start to the Trump Presidency.
WatchMeWin
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January 13th, 2017 at 11:07:15 AM permalink
I sure hope it happens next week. Im not feeling so warm and fuzzy about it anymore. Any amazing run from under 17,000, which is when I made the bet, to closing just a few points under 20,000 the other week! Technically, it hasn't gotten there yet.. wtf! Im getting 3 to 1 on my bet but Im not feeling as good about it. Dow components need to make another little notch hire..
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WatchMeWin
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January 13th, 2017 at 11:11:48 AM permalink
AKAO now over 18pps. 20% increase in a week... More to come! See , 18% annual return someone mentioned earlier is not so difficult.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
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January 13th, 2017 at 2:51:44 PM permalink
Quote: Boz

Just saying but if you are 4 years out of college and can only find a job making pizza for 18k a year, YOU are problem, not the system. The linked story is actually a good case against college and creating that much debt.

Right, but the answer isn't "don't go to college" it's "fix the education funding system." Education is *slow* -- it takes years -- while the pace of business change is much faster. This leads to a classic operations research problem: what do you do when demand fluctuates more rapidly than you can produce supply?

I worked with Sun Microsystems about 17 years ago on a project where they were selling big-iron servers, the Sun E10k. They could cost over $1M each and took more than three months to build -- that is, longer than the sales cycle. To give you the scale, here's a picture of one that someone turned into a beer tap:

When the lead time is longer than the sales cycle, you have to guess as to how many you'll need. Guess too low, you'll miss sales. Guess to high, you'll build too many. Look up the Newsboy Problem for a classic statement of this issue, but the point is Sun had a few occasions where the component parts that went into these beasts weren't available and they missed sales. That's a *disaster*, missing six or seven figures of revenue. On the other hand, if you built too many, you've locked up five or six figures of costs.

Schooling is the same way. It takes at least four years to produce a college graduate from a high-schooler (except in rare cases) and the market demand for those college graduates changes often more rapidly than the schools can catch up. That wasn't true 50 years ago but it's true now. But today's rapid market requires *more* education to navigate, not less. It seems like the wrong choice would be to just say "screw it, I'm not going to college." If anything, there should be more investment in education to reduce the burdens currently carried by students. Whether that investment comes from government or industry (or some combination) is less important than whether we make it in the first place.

Because -- and here's the real point -- other nations *are* making that investment. If the U.S. doesn't, we will lose the competitive edge that formerly made us the best place to do business. We already have (we were formerly ranked by Forbes as #1 to do business, now we're #23), and anti-education social policies that accelerate that decline are entirely the opposite of what we should be doing.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Joeman
Joeman 
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January 26th, 2017 at 4:54:05 AM permalink
Well, there you go. .DJI closes at 20,068.51 on Jan 25.

If you had a vote on January in the poll, you win! Looks like it's going to pay about 1/10 odds. ;)
"Dealer has 'rock'... Pay 'paper!'"
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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January 26th, 2017 at 7:18:47 AM permalink
Yessir! It finally closed over 20,000 yesterday! It got a little sketchy last week, but I finally won my bet with my friend. Happy.

I will take the winnings from that bet and buy up more shares of AKAO.

WizOfNothing, are you still in AKAO? Its had a nice move since you got in.
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
777
777
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January 27th, 2017 at 4:02:59 PM permalink
Quote: 777

The U.S. economy is highly dependent on consumer spending. Trade wars with China and many other foreign entities will hurt us more than benefit us, and will lead to inflation and retaliations. And the sad truth is we are addicted to cheap labor from the far east and south & central America, and consequently we need them more than they need us.

Trade wars could result in short term gain in employment, but in the long run they could be disastrous because of inflationary pressure that reduces consumer spending which will be a catalyst for much higher unemployment rate, and with higher unemployment rate, consumer spending will be much further reduced, and the cycle will repeat until Trump stop lying in his tweets to satisfy his ego.

Here is one example for retaliation, China and other countries could retaliate by canceling Boeing orders and opt for EU built Airbus aircraft. This type of retaliation could impact hundreds of thousands of high paying skill and manufacturing jobs. The eliminations these high paying jobs could have huge impact on other industries such as auto, housing, restaurant & services …




In March 2002, President George W. Bush imposed a 30% tariff on Chinese steel. The results were chaotic. In a report put out by Consuming Industries Trade Action Coalition in February of that year, the coalition found the tariffs against China boosted the overall prices of steel and cost the U.S. 200,000 jobs in businesses that buy steel, representing $4 billion.

In another recent situation, in September 2009, President Obama imposed a three-year tariff on car tires from China. Chinese imports went down, but the tires were simply sourced from other countries, the LA Times noted. According to the Peterson Institute for International Economics, 1,200 tire jobs were saved in the U.S., but through costs passed along to American consumers, 2,500 jobs were lost indirectly.

In Bush’s case, seven months after the tariffs were imposed more American jobs had been lost than Americans employed by domestic steel producers. Writing about the trickling effect of trying to help a certain domestic industry, CITAC noted: “In making policy for the revitalization of manufacturing, including the steel industry, our conclusions suggest that the effects across the full industrial spectrum should be considered.”

Read more here ...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/president-trumps-predecessors-learned-about-tariffs-the-hard-way-180438688.html
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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February 9th, 2017 at 7:51:00 AM permalink
Hey WizardofNothing , Are you still in AKAO? Its at 20 now and more to come.........
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
WatchMeWin
WatchMeWin
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February 10th, 2017 at 12:23:43 PM permalink
21 and moving! Still not too late...
'Winners hit n run... Losers stick around'
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