billryan
billryan
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November 12th, 2016 at 9:35:07 AM permalink
I'm of the opinion that life is one long session, but I'm trying to teach a friend how to drink for less.
So here's the question.
Casino bar, 9-6 JOB. Plan is to play $20, have three beers in an hour and cash out with at least $10. Assuming near perfect play and a speed of about two hundred hands an hour, any idea what percent of the time he will be successful?
In the long run, it should cost him about three cents a hand, but how often can he expect to lose at least half his money.
If you use a formula, please include it so I might be able to figure out similar questions. Thanks.
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Mission146
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November 12th, 2016 at 9:44:22 AM permalink
I'm going to use the Beating Bonuses Simulator for this:

http://www.beatingbonuses.com/simulator.htm

Okay, so I am assuming the game is quarters, which means a base bet of $1.25 = 1 Unit, he is starting off with 16 units to play and the goal is to finish on 9/6 Jacks with 8 (or more) units after two hundred hands.

Deposit: 16
Bonus: 0
Wagering: 200
Bet Size: 1
Simulations: 10,000

While it does not give me any data specifically for the probability of finishing with eight or more units, it does yield a 29.80% chance of having an overall win with a 60.03% chance of busting completely before getting the 200 hands played. A second simulation of 10K hands yields 29.05% and 60.99%, respectively.

If you assume that he finishes with eight, or more, units in roughly half of the simulations that resulted in neither a gain nor a bust, then I would suggest a roughly 34-35% chance of finishing the session with eight or more units.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
billryan
billryan
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November 12th, 2016 at 10:11:05 AM permalink
So in round numbers, he would lose all $20 about 60% of the time, and be ahead about 29%. 10%of the time he'd end up below $20 but not broke.Thanks.
Would he be better off paying for his beer.
100 sessions, $5 a beer = -$1500
60 wipe out sessions=- $1200
29 winning sessions= 580+
11 intermediate= 110.
100 sessions,=-510.

So, if I interpret your math correctly, if he buys his beer, he pays $1500. By playing, he can expect to lose roughly a third of that.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Mission146
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November 12th, 2016 at 10:33:41 AM permalink
I would be remiss not to mention that I didn't do any math on anything, I just did a simple simulation using the tool to which I linked. However, with that disclaimer out of the way, the simple answer to your question is to, as you mentioned, look at all of this as one great big session in order to determine what he would be, 'Better off,' doing.

This won't be exact, because we are basing this on 100 sessions each with a starting bankroll of 16 units, though you make it sound like he's done if he loses all sixteen of those units. I can't really do it that way looking at it all at once, but what I can do is look at 1,600 ($2,000) against 20,000 total hands played.

Deposit: 1,600
Bonus: 0
Wagering: 20,000
Bet Size: 1
Simulations: 10,000

RESULTS:

Average Return: -83.29 Units (20,000 units * 0.46% loss per unit would equal $92, so close enough, couple Royals could swing it)

Minimum Return: -1495 units

Chance of Gain: 38.46%

Chance of Bust: 0.00%

I did it again and ended up with:

Average Return: -90.73 units (That ended up closer in that regard)

Minimum Return: -1432 Units

Chance of Gain: 37.75%

Chance of Bust: 0.00%

------

With all of that, it is pretty clear he is better off playing than paying. One major difference, I suppose, is that the player is almost completely incapable of busting using 1,600 units as a starting bankroll, of course, in an individual session of 200 hands with a 16 unit bankroll, the probability of busting is greater in an individual session...and he often will. The result of that, of course, is that he will often not even manage to get 200 hands in given what he is referring to as a, 'Session,' and that being the case, actually, will result in him playing fewer than 20,000 hands overall...which actually reduces his overall expected loss in terms of both cash and units.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Ibeatyouraces
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November 12th, 2016 at 10:41:03 AM permalink
Bet one credit per hand.
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
billryan
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November 12th, 2016 at 10:48:30 AM permalink
There will be days where he will drop his $20 before his third beer, as well., but the bottom line is over a hundred days or sessions, playing is the better option than paying.
As far as playing one credit goes, he's not a mooch.
Thanks again.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
Ibeatyouraces
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November 12th, 2016 at 10:51:24 AM permalink
Kewadin Manistique used to have free bottle beers. My buddy would play one nickel at a time in a slot and drink his beers. Pretty cheap that way too.
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Mission146
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November 12th, 2016 at 11:03:15 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Kewadin Manistique used to have free bottle beers. My buddy would play one nickel at a time in a slot and drink his beers. Pretty cheap that way too.



I don't see anything wrong with that, and I don't think playing in such a fashion makes one a mooch. If the casino is offering something for free for a certain level of play, or any other business is offering something free or discounted provided some minimal criteria is met, then there is nothing fundamentally wrong with doing the bare minimum that would qualify a person for the incentive in question. If the casino decides to increase the requirement for getting free drinks, as many casinos have (and currently do, most often on the bartop games) then it is their prerogative whether or not they wish to do that.

Furthermore, the onus is on the bartender in question to ensure that the player is playing at these minimal levels, if any, in order to get free drinks. The player himself/herself is free to make any bet that the machine allows his/her to make.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
IndyJeffrey
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November 12th, 2016 at 12:06:29 PM permalink
From what I have read, at Caesars Strip properties, they require ~$180 coin in to generate a drink ticket (after your first). Therefore you'd need to play 288 hands to get 3 beers. I have not experienced drink tickets as of today, but these seem to change the math of this scenario. Which I find fascinating.
billryan
billryan
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November 12th, 2016 at 12:14:13 PM permalink
Everyone has codes they live by. I have friends who used to play a nickel in a spot , demand top shelf, and never tip.
I suspect they imbibed a lot of DNA.
I don't want to be the guy the bartender has to watch like a hawk to make sure they aren't abusing the system. I realise it's old fashioned but I'm a big believer in Fair Play.Getting free drinks while playing is a social contract. Just as I don't want a bartender charging me while I'm playing, I am not going to game him. Some will laugh, some will nod knowingly.
Others mileage may vary.
The difference between fiction and reality is that fiction is supposed to make sense.
IndyJeffrey
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November 12th, 2016 at 12:15:12 PM permalink
My mistake. I should have stated 'Cosmopolitan' not 'Caesars Strip properties'.
vegas
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November 12th, 2016 at 12:24:38 PM permalink
I have seen numerous questions about making money last but this is the first I have seen wanting to drink for less.
50-50-90 Rule: Anytime you have a 50-50 chance of getting something right, there is a 90% probability you'll get it wrong
tringlomane
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November 12th, 2016 at 5:27:16 PM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Bet one credit per hand.



Yeah, this is a better way to not go bust if you can get away with it from the bartenders and/or metering systems (won't be able to with the latter).
onenickelmiracle
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November 12th, 2016 at 5:40:13 PM permalink
If you had to pay for a beer you want, how much do places charge for Coors Light, Heineken, etc?
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tringlomane
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November 12th, 2016 at 7:13:04 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

If you had to pay for a beer you want, how much do places charge for Coors Light, Heineken, etc?



Depends on the casino. The strip is bad. $7 is often normal for domestic. Playing VP at a slow pace is a better choice if you're drinking 3 per hour there.
onenickelmiracle
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November 13th, 2016 at 2:08:04 PM permalink
Quote: tringlomane

Depends on the casino. The strip is bad. $7 is often normal for domestic. Playing VP at a slow pace is a better choice if you're drinking 3 per hour there.

Totally insane. They're making 10x profit to cost. The price might sound reasonable in about 50 years.
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