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New Project Ideas

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September 13th, 2010 at 4:06:05 AM permalink
LVJackal
Member since: Jun 1, 2010
Threads: 1
Posts: 32
Quote: Kelmo
Hi Wizard,

Here's one that you could sink your teeth into, and it probably would be of interest to both the players and the casinos:

There is a growing debate amongst casino operators and slot machine vendors about the cost of freeplay. The IGT system, for instance, allows casinos to credit a player's account with x amount of freeplay, which they can wager just as real credits. When they lose, they lose. However, when they win the get the freeplay and the win returned as real credits. This is my understanding of freeplay (I'm actually a Table Games guy), but was asked the question of cost.

Here's how I see it:

If it was a matchplay on tables, per $1 value the player would gain probabilityofwin * return (not considering the matched wager). So for roulette even-money 18/38 * 1 = 0.47 and single number 1/38 * 35 = 0.92.

If it was a non-negotiable chip that had to be played until lost, then the value would increase asymptotically to a higher value, due to the possibilities of repetitive wins.

The difference between the two is that a player can walk after the matchplay, but is obligated to play out the non-negotiable.

However, for free play the player not only recieves his winning credit, but also recieves his freeplay back as a real credit (unless I misunderstood how it was explained). If that was the case, the value would be probabilityofwin * (return + 1). In the case of a roulette freeplay (if there was such a case), the gain would be 1-HA for any wager on the layout.

In the case of a slot machine freeplay, the player is allowed to cash out once all freeplays have been played, but in reality, most players would keep playing. So the value of that freeplay is probabily somewhere between the two values. There is also the caveat of multiple payoffs (if that makes a difference) and the length of play of the customer. Some casino managers argue that giving free credits takes time away from actual play.

These freeplays are given sometimes as rewards, sometimes based on play, etc. What value is this to the player and what cost is it to the casino?


Beyond Coupons by James Grosjean... will explain the Promo Chips/Freeplay (though not named Freeplay its the same basic theory)
September 13th, 2010 at 4:51:42 AM permalink
LVJackal
Member since: Jun 1, 2010
Threads: 1
Posts: 32
As you've stated, the casino's are weak on Proposition Bets for the Race & Sports, and there is no real reason to point out a highly lucrative (at times) wager. The casinos pretty much know this and allow smaller top wagers and figure the average joe will more than make up for the few "smarts".

Poker has a lot of theoretical ground left to explore, much of it Post Flop in HE or any other game you wish to choose. Hardly ground-breaking, but a project.

Can go explore with math: example- probability of winning x units with y bankroll vs. z house advantage. Can attack Baccarat, much like previously believed un countable Spanish 21 prior to Katarina Walker, a combinatorial analysis of particular Baccarat subsets reveals huge advantages to one side or the other (this calculator is even available online). However with Baccarat- if an intense count method is identified- you're likely to keep that one secret as well ;-).

More exploring with math: the value of dealer errors, effect on house advantage of loss rebates (these diminish over number of trials but still have an impact), how a $25 higher average bet rating hits comp value, etc.

With your connections could also start a series of "inside" stories from both sides of the felt that aren't full of BS. (PM for an offer on this one :P )

To truly break ground and shock people most of the time its looking at the same problem millions of others have already adressed and written off but with a new spin. At one time Blackjack was unbeatable (merely two generations ago), then the carnival pit, followed by the one armed bandits, spanish 21, three card poker, let it ride, mississippi stud, pai gow poker (with good rules), etc. Sometimes the dumbest possible option or suggestion sheds light on a subject in an amazingly new way.....

Well, lost my train of thought somewhere along the way...
September 14th, 2010 at 9:34:30 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 313
Posts: 6771
About promo chips, I have some material about that on my page Promotional, Match-Play, and Non-Negotiable Chips. That is about all I think the average player needs to know about them. Those in the business are welcome to use my site too, but they are not my intended audience.

About reports from the road, I'd love too. However, I'm not sure the demand is there for the information. My gut says to not diversify too much.

I'm not big on analyzing risk of ruin, betting systems, and probability of reaching certain winning goals. That is not the direction I try to lead my readers, although they go that way all the time.

For now I'm seriously thinking of doing instructional gambling videos. Speaking of which, I'm on the lookout for an attractive dealer to be in them. If you know of anybody, feel free to point her my way.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
September 14th, 2010 at 9:37:00 PM permalink
NicksGamingStuff
Member since: Feb 2, 2010
Threads: 43
Posts: 631
Why a her? Mike I would make a great actor dealer! I have a tuxedo!
September 14th, 2010 at 11:01:06 PM permalink
Wizard
Administrator
Member since: Oct 14, 2009
Threads: 313
Posts: 6771
Quote: NicksGamingStuff
Why a her? Mike I would make a great actor dealer! I have a tuxedo!


If you really mean it, I'd be up for that. I'm thinking of asking Lisa, who is seen in many of the hotel reviews, to play the role of the student.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
September 14th, 2010 at 11:33:40 PM permalink
avargov
Member since: Aug 5, 2010
Threads: 15
Posts: 440
I know this is tad self-serving...How about a 'truck drivers' guide to Las Vegas somewhere on one of the sites. I know there are hundreds of drivers that love to gamble (most of which haven't a clue as to what they are doing).

I personally would enjoy gathering the information if I thought a little slice of space could be dedicated to it. POerhaps it could bring a new segment of gamblers to the site who could really use the info.
Before you diagnose yourself with depression or low self-esteem, first make sure that you are not, in fact, just surrounded by assholes." ~ William Gibson
September 15th, 2010 at 4:17:50 PM permalink
AZDuffman
Member since: Nov 2, 2009
Threads: 153
Posts: 2911
Quote: Wizard
For now I'm seriously thinking of doing instructional gambling videos. Speaking of which, I'm on the lookout for an attractive dealer to be in them. If you know of anybody, feel free to point her my way.


I have to agree with what someone else said, don't just go the hottie route on the dealer. Instead use the hotties as the students. Get some sort of dealers who are actual dealers of one sort or another. It would make it more interesting if the dealer has some camera-personality.

In addition to instruction on the rules consider showing people game etiquette. Though I enjoy dealing craps at the monte carlo nights, there is so much that newbie players do incorrectly I don't even want to think hwo they would be treated doing it at a real table.
"The Roman Empire wasn't planned, but neither did it 'just happen.'"
October 14th, 2010 at 11:21:47 PM permalink
Croupier
Member since: Nov 15, 2009
Threads: 54
Posts: 1092
Quote: Wizard

For now I'm seriously thinking of doing instructional gambling videos. Speaking of which, I'm on the lookout for an attractive dealer to be in them. If you know of anybody, feel free to point her my way.


If It wasnt for the slightly prohibitive travel time my wife and I would have been more than happy to help with the videos.

As a small side project, a glossary of gambling/gambling maths terms, such as variance, house edge etc might be good for the newbies, as well as some articles on performing your own gambling analysis, such as how to calulate house edge for yourself.

A deeper investigation of the comps systems of various places might be nice.
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October 26th, 2010 at 4:19:27 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Feb 28, 2010
Threads: 69
Posts: 1210
Quote: Wizard
I've never said this publicly before, but I'm starting to run dry on things to write about when it comes to gambling. So, I'm throwing it open to suggestions.


Not new, except for format, but have you ever considered putting stuff you've already done on Youtube? Windows (and I think Mac too) already comes with a program capable of enough fancy editing features, that all you really need to do is become familiar with it. In one evening or two, you can learn enough to use all the basic functions, and not much more to make it look more professional with effects and transitions. It's not too hard to create relatively simply animations if that would be useful too for some sort of demo (though there is no animation program with the Windows one, you can still manage simple frame animations that are crude but work fine)
October 26th, 2010 at 4:21:11 PM permalink
rxwine
Member since: Feb 28, 2010
Threads: 69
Posts: 1210
Oops, just saw the above post --hah.

Oh well.
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Bovada is the only Internet casino endorsed by the Wizard.
Here are my reasons why and my promise of support.