New Project Ideas

Quote: Asswhoopermcdaddy

Another alternative would be applied game theory in poker. Given the statistical probability of various distributed hands across the table, and the likelihood of someone playing a hand with a lower EV, what hands would represent a Nash Equilibrium. Or something along those lines.

Unfortunately I don't think that's a fresh angle since Kill Everyone's been published; it describes equilibrium play in tournament settings.

Quote: Nareed

Plus how long can a dice setter throw before he gets tired? I don't think much more than an hour or two, possibly less. So there'd be breaks. All told such an experiment would take weeks.

It would take money, too. There's payment for the dice setters and maybe for the controls, renting a regulation casino craps table for several weeks (buying one is out of the question), buying regulation dice (lots of them), plus two research assistants and a grad student <wink!>

That's why I suggest it be done by someone with access to grant money, or the Mythbusters.

And, since Adam and Jamie like to blow shit up at the end, I'd bet there isn't much interest in setting dice......
hmmmm, watching a craps table being blown to smithereens does sound like fun, though.

Quote:

Assuming 30 rolls per hour, that would take 13.9 solid 24-hour days.

They don't need to be come-out rolls, do they? Dice setters are slower, but I think you could have 3 acclaimed and respected rollers netting 250 or so rolls an hour if more than one table is used. 40 hours now. It could be a once a week thing that went on for months [or years] too.

I absolutely agree this would still be very hard to organize and would require volunteers and other sacrifices by those devoted. Is there no casino that would help? I would volunteer to help take statistics, of course I am seldom in Vegas so maybe that is easy for me to say.

I think 30 rolls an hour is normal for casino conditions, and that is all rolls, not just come out rolls. If this were done as an exhibition, skeptics could claim that removing normal casino annoyances, and the pressure of playing for money, would ruin the experiment. The Wong/Little Joe experiment was strictly done under normal casino conditions. Also, there would be no incentive for any believers to participate who are not selling books or lessons on dice throwing. Why draw attention to yourself and motivate competitors? Still, I don't rule out the idea. If a good opportunity to do this presents itself, I would be happy to be the judge, or help in any capacity.

Hi Wizard,

Here's one that you could sink your teeth into, and it probably would be of interest to both the players and the casinos:

There is a growing debate amongst casino operators and slot machine vendors about the cost of freeplay. The IGT system, for instance, allows casinos to credit a player's account with x amount of freeplay, which they can wager just as real credits. When they lose, they lose. However, when they win the get the freeplay and the win returned as real credits. This is my understanding of freeplay (I'm actually a Table Games guy), but was asked the question of cost.

Here's how I see it:

If it was a matchplay on tables, per $1 value the player would gain probabilityofwin * return (not considering the matched wager). So for roulette even-money 18/38 * 1 = 0.47 and single number 1/38 * 35 = 0.92.

If it was a non-negotiable chip that had to be played until lost, then the value would increase asymptotically to a higher value, due to the possibilities of repetitive wins.

The difference between the two is that a player can walk after the matchplay, but is obligated to play out the non-negotiable.

However, for free play the player not only recieves his winning credit, but also recieves his freeplay back as a real credit (unless I misunderstood how it was explained). If that was the case, the value would be probabilityofwin * (return + 1). In the case of a roulette freeplay (if there was such a case), the gain would be 1-HA for any wager on the layout.

In the case of a slot machine freeplay, the player is allowed to cash out once all freeplays have been played, but in reality, most players would keep playing. So the value of that freeplay is probabily somewhere between the two values. There is also the caveat of multiple payoffs (if that makes a difference) and the length of play of the customer. Some casino managers argue that giving free credits takes time away from actual play.

These freeplays are given sometimes as rewards, sometimes based on play, etc. What value is this to the player and what cost is it to the casino?

Quote: Kelmo

In the case of a slot machine freeplay, the player is allowed to cash out once all freeplays have been played, but in reality, most players would keep playing. So the value of that freeplay is probabily somewhere between the two values. There is also the caveat of multiple payoffs (if that makes a difference) and the length of play of the customer. Some casino managers argue that giving free credits takes time away from actual play.

I agree this is an interesting topic and might warrant a new thread.
------------------------------------------------------
Most smart players will take their freeplay to the best-paying video poker machine and play it through once at the lowest bet amount possible. I don't think anybody on this board would disagree with that strategy. However, the vast majority of slot players will probably keep playing those "won" credits, thus churning them through again. I can't see how free play can be unprofitable if that is the case. Are casino managers really so tight-fisted that they are fretting that lost 10 minutes of cash play while the customer is playing through their free play? As long as people keep playing the way they do, casino managers have nothing to worry about.
-------------------------------------------------------
As far as the mechanics of freeplay, at the casino I frequent most, you are given the free play and must "activate" it by putting enough cash for one bet in the machine. Then, as you play, whether you win or lose, the amount of your bet is rebated after each spin. Other systems (I assume the IGT is one of them) will download the credits straight to the machine right away and you play them off as normal, except they can't be cashed out until they have been churned at least once.

For myself, I can never get enough of unusual Vegas casino stories. For instance, just a few years ago, when they switched from coins to paper on the slots, my wife and I were actually 'back-roomed' at Circus Circus over a slot incident. She put a slot receipt for $45 that she got from one machine, into another machine, and nothing happened. We got a slot attendent, and then a supervisor to open the machine and they couldn't find the receipt. We kept insisting it was put in the machine and they took us to the security area, off the casino floor, down a hallway and into a very small room. A big burly older man came in and I swear he was out of a movie, he was very menacing. He asked us question after question, in an extremely unfriendly fashion, and we were guests of the hotel! He said if they opened the box where the receipts were, and ours wasn't in there for that amount, right on top, we could go to jail for fraud. My wife was terrified. I stuck with the story and about 20min later he came back in, handed us $45 in cash, didn't say another word, didn't apologise, nothing. It was a sobering experience, believe me. We checked out immediately and haven't been back.

I love reading about people who have had unusual casino experiences, there have got to be hundreds of them out there.

I know I probably shouldn't bring back old topics, but I'm wondering if the Wizard has made a decision on any kinds of new projects he may decide to work on? The reason I ask is that this forum itself has pretty much exhausted itself of the gambling ideas, gambling systems, gambling whatevers, and I find myself not getting as much value out of it as I used to when I wanted to learn about gambling. I do enjoy reading stories about people's casino trips, as I somewhat like living vicariously through others. Unfortunately, those stories are few and far between. Anyway, I'm just wondering what plans you may have or new projects you may have come up with. And whether or not those will show up on the WoO site.

I'm kicking around various ideas in my head for WoO, but nothing in the works. One idea I'm considering is doing instructional videos on YouTube. I prefer to stick to analyzing games, but as I've lamented, I am running dry on games to analyze.

Recently my webmaster at WoO quit. I'm thinking of using the occasion to give that site a new look. Maybe like this one. I'm open to suggestions.

I really wish I had any knowledge whatsoever of how to be a webmaster. I would volunteer in an instant! Unfortunately, my web experience involves designing my business webpage, which, if I do say so myself, looks like crap. Mainly because I copied the design and feel from another unrelated company. Everybody thinks it looks good, but that's only because they have no knowledge of the other website.

My favorite thing on the WoO site is the Ask the Wizard segments. If you do redesign, I hope you keep that feature and maybe make it prominent. :)