New Project Ideas

Quote: Wizard

Thanks for all the suggestions thus far. Thanks also for the offer to help with Northern CA casinos, Nick. I prefer to stick to math analysis as much as possible. Thus, I'm not big on discussing comps and betting systems. That is more the domain of the Las Vegas Advisor. Plus, that information changes so frequently.

I kind of like Brindle's idea. I've thought of doing something like that for years. What I envision is a "best of Vegas" kind of list, where I would rank the casinos game by game for the loosest odds. For some I might further break it down by small/medium/large bettor. I think it would be a valuable resource for recreational gamblers. On the down side, it would be very tedious gathering information, and not very challenging mentally.

What I would prefer is to break some new ground mathematically. Any other ideas?

How can you break new ground mathematically when the math itself is over 400 years old? Just about every possible gambling scenario/situation/problem was picked apart before George Washington was born. I don't see how you could do anything that hasn't been done to death already--not in the gambling field, anyway.

I therefore suggest quantifying the heretofore unquantifiable: analyze casino games in terms of customer satisfaction. What games give people the most fun for their money? Where does a casino dollar give people the most "utility", in the economic sense? What motivates people to play or not play in a given casino--or on a given game? Which games hold players' attentions the longest (and are thus most desirable for the casino to offer)?

I believe that such an analysis would be more germane to what the "best" casino game to play might be than a strict analysis of house percentages. After all, if people relied on that criterion, Harrah's properties would be completely empty. I remember being asked by a friend what the best way to spend $100 in the casino would be. I told him to bet $44 on the morning football game, $44 on the afternoon football game, and buy a $12 parlay card and pick some random other games, then kick back in the sports book, slurp down a bunch of free drinks, and root for his team(s). he had a great time, killed several hours (and several drinks), munched some hot dogs, and not only that, won both bets (but not the parlay card), for a profit of $68. I think he would have been perfectly satisfied if he had lost, though. The point is, for a negative EV of about $10, he got a whole day's worth of entertainment. Similarly, the LOL in the Keno lounge might be getting a LOT more out of her $20 than her counterpart who runs it through a quarter slot, even though the Keno game is mathematically twice as bad to play.

Given your strength in football, I suggest running with that. Analyze key games, and comment on each weeks match-ups, perhaps throwing in a few tips on strong lines, historic trends, and even a, "Wizard's Lock of The Week(c)". It takes a lot of work to keep up with things weekly, but I think you have access to resources that could make it viable.

If not a weekly update on all teams,perhaps you could just concentrate on two or three teams for the entire season (but I think you still end up doing a lot of work to keep up with other happenings in the league.)

I'm about to say something which is thoroughly grounded in ignorance, as I know little of math and nothing at all about what I'm thinking of. Anyway:

Is there anything interesting mathematically in fantasy sports leagues?

I know exactly nothing about fantasy sports leagues, beyond the mere fact of their existence.

And this concludes the part of the day when I make a fool out of myself.

I would like your take on the concept and application of Bayesian Inference.

How about a monthly guest for a Q&A? People in the casino business,city or state officials,gambling attorneys etc.

There are a lot of interesting people out there-the list could be endless.

Heck,you could even get Chum Lee from Pawn Stars.

Quote: benbakdoff

Heck,you could even get Chum Lee from Pawn Stars.

Talk about reaching to the bottom of the barrel!

That is, unless his stupidity on the show is just an act. And everyone else is playing along.

But I have a hard time believing it's an act. Trouble is, I also have a hard time believing he's that stupid!

Quote: benbakdoff

How about a monthly guest for a Q&A? People in the casino business,city or state officials,gambling attorneys etc.

There are a lot of interesting people out there-the list could be endless.

Heck,you could even get Chum Lee from Pawn Stars.

I'm too small to get the people I really want. Here is how I envision the conversation, let's say with someone local I really like and respect, Heidi Fleiss:

Me: Hello, Heidi. Would you like to do an interview for my web site "Wizard of Odds" or "Wizard of Vegas"?
Heidi: Who the *%&# are you or those sites?

Quote: DJTeddyBear

Re: Chumley

But I have a hard time believing it's an act. Trouble is, I also have a hard time believing he's that stupid!

I'm sure it is exagerated. I've done a fair bit of television. They basicially ask you to be yourself...but to make it interesting for television. I think the implication is to overpersonify yourself. You see the overacting on reality shows all the time.

Quote: Wizard

I've done a fair bit of television. They basicially ask you to be yourself...but to make it interesting for television. I think the implication is to overpersonify yourself. You see the overacting on reality shows all the time.

Very simple editing techniques can achieve all kinds of reactions. Once they have a persona that they want to project, they can cut, paste, pan and add sound effects to achieve the desired effect.

A friend of mine was interviewed for CNN on a research vessel. The reporter hated his complex technical answers. He spun around and pointed the camera at his face and shouted "What is the most important thing to do out here?". My friend said it was important not to fall into the ocean. He got his video clip.

Another time for CNN the reporter came all humble and said he hadn't time to do any research, and could we please fill him in on the most controversial aspects of the test. After ten minutes of filling him in, he turned the cameras on and fired all the same questions back in his most dominant investigative journalism voice. Seemed very funny to me.

I think that there should be a whole section on the odds of trying to achieve a reasonable goal. How realistics is it with various games that you will quadruple your money before going broke.

Or the odds that you will double your money before going broke. Or given that you have doubled your money, how likely is it that if you keep playing that you will never see triple your money before going broke.

Or the age old Martingale question. What difference does it make what the ratio of Maximum to Minimum is. I think you can easily show that since you need a larger bankroll to cover your base bet, that the odds of doubling before bankruptcy are the same regardless of how big the ratio is. (Normally the ratio is bigger than 6, but in extreme circumstances can go up to 10).

People do not really appreciate the small differences in house advantage, unless they are seen throough the lense of a larger goal seek.

Given how much better craps is with free odds, I can't see why anyone would play baccarat for big money.

Quote: Wizard

What I would prefer is to break some new ground mathematically. Any other ideas?

Yes. I have some ideas though not necessarily totally new ones.

I'd like you to consider the work of a Yahoo Research Scientist set forth in blog.oddhead.com. He set forth a challenge in which there was a prize of twenty Yootles (a privately issued pseudo-currency). Unfortunately his Craps Strategy challenge was unrealistic in that it specified a 2x odds table and a five dollar minimum bet table. Sure, go to SouthPoint and all you will ever find is 2x odds. And 5.00 tables or even 3.00 craps tables are available if you trek a bit. However most of us are going to encounter ten dollar tables at 3x4x5x or 10x or 20x tables. The truly brave can hit Ramparts or Eastside Cannery and go to 100x.

If you go to the blog.oddhead.com site or directly to the craps challenge at http://blog.oddhead.com/2007/03/03/challenge-low-variance-craps-strategy/ you will see that the idiotic Fools Gold won the twenty Yootles but obviously did not know what he was talking about.

I'd like to see a definitive analysis of the different craps strategies and see it based on far, far more than a lousy 800 rolls simulation. And I'd like to see it at a more reasonable situation than 2x odds on a five dollar table.

Oddhead-Blog-post

but there is a 1965 paper by Tom Ferguson that solves a very similar problem for general MDPs:
http://www.math.ucla.edu/~tom/papers/ruin.pdf
A Statistical Characterization and Comparison of Selected Craps Money Management and Bet Selection Systems. Ken Elliot Kbeiico. Columbia, MD 21046
Best strategy: $606 PutBet. After three hits, take it down and leave the flat bets for the Casino Royale dealers.
“Better” depends upon goals and preferences.
At 5 dollar bets with two times odds, Hoyle’s Press and Oscar would be the two best systems, though Ponzer, in third place, would be preferable overall.
Best thing would be to play at a slower table where there are lots of grinders who will slow things down even more. That maximizes your time at the table more cheaply than switching to a Patrick Right system.
http://www.conjelco.com/downloads/elliott-paper.pdf
also available in:
Finding the Edge: Mathematical and Quantitative Analysis of Gambling (Institute of Gambling & Commercial Gaming) ver)
by Olaf Vancura William Eadington Judy Cornelius
After interviewing 50 dealers ... the Fremont Street Grind.