New Project Ideas

I've never said this publicly before, but I'm starting to run dry on things to write about when it comes to gambling. So, I'm throwing it open to suggestions. I'd like to do something that will make a big splash, but small project ideas are welcome too. Here are some ideas I've had myself:

Poker: I know I'm weak in this area. That is because I'm personally a weak player, and everybody and his brother is already writing about the game. If I'm going to tackle poker I want some kind of fresh angle to take. I've thought about analyzing a simplified version of poker, like one-card poker, to get at the essence of the game, but (a) it has been done before, (b) it would be a lot harder than it seems, (c) I don't think many people would care.

Sports betting: I think I've provided some good stuff on sports, especially football. However, that topic gets as deep as the ocean, and I could still go down much deeper. A problem is that I have trouble getting data on what I want to analyze. For example, I've wanted to analyze 5-inning lines in baseball for years, but I can't find inning by inning box score data in a database form.

Blackjack: I still have never done much with writing about card counting. There is already so much out there, that I would just be re-inventing the wheel. There is no way I could improve upon what some other writers like Norm Wattenberger have already done. I also think counting is not a strong advantage play any longer, and I don't want to lead my readers down a false path of riches with that.

Hole Carding: This is a ripe area for advantage play. I touch on it in some games, but it is worthy of discussion in just about every hand-held card game. On the other hand, it is a lot of work, and that topic is already James Grosjean's pond. I don't think I could top what he has in Beyond Counting -- Exhibit CAA on that topic.

More Surveys: One of my proudest accomplishments was my slot machine survey. I've thought about doing the same kind of thing in other games. For example, it wouldn't be hard to do so a complete video poker survey of Vegas. However, anybody can walk up and down the Strip and write down pay tables. It would just be a lot of busy work. I've also thought about completing my air quality survey. However, that is sensitive to the day and time I actually do the study. It wouldn't be fair to compare one casino surveyed at 10:00 PM on a Saturday night, as another one surveyed at 7:00 AM on a Wednesday morning.

So, with that, I throw it open to the audience. Any suggestions?

You should be able to get linescore data in a Wiz-friendly format in one of these two places:

http://www.retrosheet.org/gamelogs/index.html

http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/


As a baseball fan, I hate 5 inning lines; as a gambler I think they're fun...

More on prop bets like in the Disputed prop bet thread you started.

I would like to read some articles about the history of each casino game. For example, how Pai Gow Tiles came about and managed to survive for 900 years, how craps evolved into its current state, etc...

Many thanks, Wizard, for your work. I always memorize your game strategies before I play them in the casinos near me.

Thanks for the baseball links. I may be able to do something with the first one. It would be much better if it listed the money lines and posted total for each game.

About the props, I consider one of my strongest areas NFL props. However, that is one of those things that is too good to write about. I'm also sworn to secrecy on some of my strategies.

Possible poker angles:

1. Complete drawing odds for games other than Hold'em on wizardofodds. Mainly mechanical, but I think you'd get some traffic given how little is around on games like Badugi.

1a. "Interesting Stats" for common games. In Hold'em the deal must be six handed for there to be a 50% chance or better that someone else has an ace too. That's useless trivia unless you're at one of the popular six-max tables online, because anytime someone sits out your naked ace leaps up in value. Probably combined with #1 on a single page giving both disaster odds (like flush over flush) as well as helpful stats. (Like how much having extra people drawing hurts you in lowball)

1b. I've always wanted a table of medians for the popular games which took into account reasonable starting hands.

2. How much difference is there in variance between games at equal stakes/skill? Everyone knows Badugi and Triple Draw are much wilder than Hold'em and Draw, but how much?

3. What the hell is the value of a poker tournament buyin to a skilled player? NOBODY knows. Widely accepted estimates put it at about 4x for Hold'em 2x for other games. What intrigued me about it originally was that a lot of estimates seemed to be equal to the odds of dominated hands. If that's true there'd be a huge value to say draw tournaments where you can really have someone deep in a hole at the start of the hand.

5. A page on poker fallacies if there are enough of them. ie, in stud if you see two aces on the deal it's more likely somebody has aces than if you see one. Though most people assume the opposite.

The thrill of it all. Everyone around here treats the excitement of the bet like it was something dirty, something unsavory because it isn't quantifiable, because there are no equations for it. But if it wasn't for the thrill, we wouldn't do it. I'll sit through god knows how many 7 outs for that one time that the shooter is binging, I have just a little bit too many chips out there, my points are paying and riding, and the dice are tossed and the next roll is in the air but not yet decided....

If it was just about the numbers, we'd go to work instead. The numbers matter, but the thrill is why.

Ideas....

Poker - maybe some coverage of short stacking big bet games...............I have seen some info, but I am pretty sure that the really good stuff isn't covered in any available texts

Sportsbetting - there is a lot that could be covered, maybe baseball or basketball props, basic pricing ideas, stuff that isn't really out there, but isn't too terribly costly to anyone out in the market........using Poisson distribution, etc...........its out there if you look, but nothing too specific

Blackjack/Table Games - Holecarding is an area that I am very interested in, but haven't put much study into yet......but what about extending (mathematically) the work that Max Rubin did in Comp City about the value of comps v house edge on various games.........and go down that angle, how free drinks lower house edge, yada, yada, yada.......

As far as your study, how about something that compares VP paytables to actual hold.........my belief is that casinos do themselves a disservice by not offerring +EV machines, because 99.9% of people don't play the games anywhere close to perfect and they can make plenty of money if marketing their machines properly with these +EV situations.

Beats me.
Do you want to focus on the Online world. Particularly online poker rooms. There have been a few scandals, many detected by statistical methods, not just proven by them. What audit trails exist? Which sites have external audits?

Craps simulators for trying out strategies?

I know that you state that other websites have done a good job of explaining things such as poker or card counting, however, I wouldn't mind seeing your reviews of those websites, or your opinions of those websites. Your voice in the matter would make me more interested in reading what those websites have to say.