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Greasyjohn
Greasyjohn
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April 3rd, 2016 at 10:40:20 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

How many times have you been back roomed, 86ed or beaten?



It's never happened to me, but I've been backed off 5 times: Fitzgeralds, Laughlin Nugget, Lady Luck, Texas Station and Red Rock.

Often times when people find out I'm a card counter they will ask about how many casinos have ask me not to play. To me the question is kind of like asking a jewelry thief how many times he's been arrested. The goal is not to be arrested.
Last edited by: Greasyjohn on Apr 3, 2016
Mission146
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April 3rd, 2016 at 9:46:41 PM permalink
Greetings!

For the most recent Article, we have something of a reminder and consolidation type Article for online gambling AP:

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/approaches-to-online-gambling-ap/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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April 6th, 2016 at 4:31:33 AM permalink
Here's a new News & Notes, I'm not summarizing what's in it this time, you have to read it!

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/news-and-notes-eight/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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April 7th, 2016 at 7:49:47 AM permalink
Greetings!

We have three more newly released Articles today, with the first two having to do with how to determine your Equity in Promotions:

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/a-question-of-equity-part-1-of-2/
https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/a-question-of-equity-part-2-of-2/

Secondly, we have the first of a three-part Article for negative expectation game players to help them determine how much they are actually losing by choosing one game or another, and how to pick what game is right for them. We start off by looking at $10 6:5 Blackjack v. $25 3:2 Blackjack on a loss per hour basis:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/how-to-lose-part-1-of-3/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
MrGoldenSun
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April 7th, 2016 at 8:21:30 AM permalink
I haven't read the last article yet, but I am excited to. I'm surprised how people obsess about small differences in house edge without ever considering decisions per hour. Part of the reason I always advocate for pai gow poker is that it's slow, so it's more favorable on a per-hour basis than it is on a per-hand basis.

I also think people should consider variance more, although that is more a personal choice since some want high variance and some want low.
Mission146
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April 9th, 2016 at 8:09:41 AM permalink
Quote: MrGoldenSun

I haven't read the last article yet, but I am excited to. I'm surprised how people obsess about small differences in house edge without ever considering decisions per hour. Part of the reason I always advocate for pai gow poker is that it's slow, so it's more favorable on a per-hour basis than it is on a per-hand basis.

I also think people should consider variance more, although that is more a personal choice since some want high variance and some want low.



Thanks for the compliment!

Here is also the second part of it:

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/How-do-you-lose-part-2-of-3/

The third part will come out tomorrow or the next day, and PGP will definitely get a mention!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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April 11th, 2016 at 4:45:48 AM permalink
Greetings!

Here is the third part of the Expected Loss per Hour Article:

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/How-do-you-lose-part-3-of-3/

Secondly, here is an Article pertaining to the benefit5s of Membership at our Parent site, LatestCasinoBonuses.com:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/meet-the-parent/

If you like money, then you should definitely take a peak at our Parent Site!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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April 14th, 2016 at 9:41:34 AM permalink
The first thing we have today is an Article about some of the Online Gambling companies that are out there and what the positive effects would be were Online Gambling expressly legalized in the US:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/increased-legitimacy/

Secondly, we have a new News and Notes in which the High Roller Sex Scandal comes to a close, Atlantic City shows reasonably good profits...for now, more information on the Route 66 Casino shooting, and finally, a car stolen in a Midwestern Casino in one of the stupidest ways possible:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/news-and-notes-nine/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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April 17th, 2016 at 8:29:03 PM permalink
Let's talk about the Plaza Promo some more! No plays or hints in this Article!


https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/false-flags/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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April 21st, 2016 at 9:25:40 AM permalink
What are the Ten Strangest Things I have seen people do in casinos?

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/it-is-a-strange-world/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
MrGoldenSun
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April 21st, 2016 at 10:38:20 AM permalink
I enjoyed these.

For #7, I am surprised you didn't pick up that something unusual was happening.

For #3, Gus' strategy was based on the unusual structure of that competition. There was a points system based on a series of super-short single-table tourneys, and this was the final one. I don't know if Gus' strategy was optimal, but he is quite smart, so I am assuming it was viable based on the points standings at the time and the different incentives of the players at the table.

Also for #3, anyone who made some snide, needling comment is a jackass, an idiot, and needs their mouth taped shut.
Mission146
Mission146
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April 21st, 2016 at 6:11:45 PM permalink
MGS,

#7: I might have been quicker on what was going on had I not had a few drinks already that night. Like I said, the whole thing just went completely over my head, I thought they just wanted to drink with us.

#3: I knew that there was some kind of strategy to it if Gus Hansen was doing it, and yes, he is one of the best poker players to ever exist...in my opinion. I also agree with the second thing you said for #3, personally, if I had top say anything at all, I'd want that player to feel welcomed at the table rather than ostracized with sarcasm.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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April 21st, 2016 at 6:12:47 PM permalink
Is there a time not to play based on a, 'Feeling?' I argue yes here:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/a-question-of-psychology/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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April 21st, 2016 at 10:17:13 PM permalink
darkoz Apr 17, 2016
"I'm pretty certain I know which machines you are talking about. I don't play video poker and I immediately thought of the proper non-video poker play. No, I won't give those away either as that is not public information like the actual promotion is. I also agree with you, that while more lucrative, I doubt the casino will/would allow it to progress very far without disallowing it after a few hand-pays.

Will we be discussing what the machines were after the promotion or is everyone on here afraid it will affect next year's promotions."
------------------------------------------
After all the chatter?

Feel free to PM me what the best play was along with all the the percentages and strategies . Then I can tell you you were wrong. I'm absolutely certain even had you been there you wouldn't have thought about it.

There were over 30 AP's there and many known public AP writers etc who scouted the place NONE of them actually thought about the best play and some admitted that afterwards or during the play. The best machines sat open until minutes before when we then snuck over and played. Eventually a few people copied us and good machines were still open. Some were still puzzled but whatever, people can say they know/knew this or that bla, bla, bla after the fact onne they hear stuff though the grapevine. I just never actually see anyone doing it themselves first. It's one thing actually talking about and writing about stuff it's another thing actually doing it.

The 2nd best machines were full of AP's well ahead of time however many were open.

I'm Fairly certain I discussed what I felt was the best play with mission regarding another promo at this location and others.

I have been waiting for a promo and an this opportunity for a while, it isn't the first time.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizardofnothing
Wizardofnothing
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April 21st, 2016 at 10:21:21 PM permalink
Let's discuss some New York promos,



Axel is definitely on top of his game in finding the absolute best play in the house - kudos
No longer hiring, don’t ask because I won’t hire you either
AxelWolf
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April 22nd, 2016 at 1:33:27 AM permalink
Let's not and say we did. I'm not out to mess with other people's plays or whatever. No tit for tat We already have the blackjack community fighting over dumb crap IMO.

God bees he who can find an advantage.

Let's just hope people (especially if you're an AP) realize that publicly spreading information for the casinos to see isn't good.

Dark, will probably never admit it's a bad thing(he thinks a book is a good idea), probably not even if casino management came and confirmed everything some of us already know.

I don't think his intentions were bad, I honestly don't think he knew the potential value of this promo and all the possibilities. I doubt he's played many jackpot promos or whatever. I think his focus is on other things. He already stated if free play disappeared he would publish his book.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
MrGoldenSun
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April 22nd, 2016 at 10:10:11 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

I also agree with the second thing you said for #3, personally, if I had top say anything at all, I'd want that player to feel welcomed at the table rather than ostracized with sarcasm.



Definitely. What's the point of comments like that? Very insecure, unnecessary, and rude. The conventional poker wisdom, of course, is "be nice to the sucker." Personally, I think even that is too cynical. I think it should just be "be nice to everyone." :)
AxelWolf
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April 22nd, 2016 at 9:43:25 PM permalink
Quote: MrGoldenSun

Definitely. What's the point of comments like that? Very insecure, unnecessary, and rude. The conventional poker wisdom, of course, is "be nice to the sucker." Personally, I think even that is too cynical. I think it should just be "be nice to everyone." :)

I think the problem is that people get angry when a bad player makes a bad play and then they get lucky, sometimes good players start ragging on them calling them donkeys meanwhile making them feel uncomfortable.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Mission146
Mission146
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April 24th, 2016 at 8:53:09 AM permalink
Here is this week's News & Notes:

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/news-and-notes-ten/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
MrGoldenSun
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April 25th, 2016 at 6:53:24 AM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

I think the problem is that people get angry when a bad player makes a bad play and then they get lucky, sometimes good players start ragging on them calling them donkeys meanwhile making them feel uncomfortable.



Oh, I understand the motivation. I play poker myself. I think it's a sign of poker immaturity and inferiority. This is really basic stuff to not antagonize people. If someone doesn't understand that bad players will win sometimes, and that luck is an essential component to the game as poker would die if the best player or best hand always won, then I assume that person doesn't really understand how to make money.

I rarely see really good players needling fish. I see it more from mediocre players who aren't as good as they think.
Mission146
Mission146
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April 30th, 2016 at 5:55:10 AM permalink
Greetings!

I must be in the wrong, because I am about to patently disagree with everything James Grosjean said in one of his most recent Articles:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/grappling-with-grosjean/

Secondly, a discussion of how much AP's should...um....discuss:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/the-sound-of-silence/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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May 22nd, 2016 at 7:59:12 AM permalink
How do you NOT have a lottery?

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/what-are-they-thinking/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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May 24th, 2016 at 8:51:31 PM permalink
Is convenience gambling brilliant? Yes!


https://wizardofvegas.com/article/convenience-gambling/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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May 28th, 2016 at 11:32:46 PM permalink
Here is an Article about disreputable Online Casinos that have Pirated Software Providers in good standing:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/it-is-all-in-the-software/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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June 2nd, 2016 at 10:13:19 AM permalink
Here are a few recent Articles:

Misconceptions related to Advantage Players:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/misconceptions-related-to-advantage-players/

We have a wide variety of topics in the most recent News & Notes:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/news-and-notes-thirteen/

Finally, we have a few brief reviews of casinos I have visited recently, kind of, 'First Impression,' Reviews as I wasn't at any of them too long, but one.

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/brief-reviews/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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June 11th, 2016 at 2:08:05 PM permalink
First we will look at a unique Craps Promotion as posted by 100x Odds:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/unusual-craps-promotions/

We also have another News & Notes:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/news-and-notes-fourteen/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
100xOdds
100xOdds
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June 12th, 2016 at 6:33:22 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

First we will look at a unique Craps Promotion as posted by 100x Odds:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/unusual-craps-promotions/


feels honored! :)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
Mission146
Mission146
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June 18th, 2016 at 3:03:30 PM permalink
I'll take that as a compliment!
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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June 18th, 2016 at 3:04:42 PM permalink
By the way, here are some first impressions of a few more casinos out East:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/everywhere-and-everything/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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June 22nd, 2016 at 9:13:26 AM permalink
Odd aspects (Non-Gambling) in New Jersey:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/new-jersey-oddities/

Might some AP's be addicts in disguise:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/Does-advantage-player-equal-addict/

Another News & Notes:

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/news-and-notes-fifteen/

Casino Bucket List:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/places-to-go-casinos-to-see/

Rocky Gap & Trump Taj Mahal Reviews:

https://wizardofvegas.com/hotels/rocky-gap-casino/ & https://wizardofvegas.com/hotels/trump-taj-mahal-review/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
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July 13th, 2016 at 6:06:40 PM permalink
How could Brexit impact Online Casinos, and what were the immediate impacts on Sports Books:

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/brexit-and-betting/

The six strangest things I've done in a casino:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/the-six-strangest-things-i-have-done-in-a-casino/

Would you like to work for an AP? Here is what the ideal employee should be like:

https://wizardofvegas.com/article/the-ideal-employee/

I disagree with Dancer again:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/surprising-dancer-article/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
Mission146
Mission146
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July 22nd, 2016 at 6:43:59 AM permalink
First of all, here is an Article about the BetSoft Slots at Bovada with the (perhaps intentional, perhaps not) software problem that results in Jackpots being impossible to hit:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/when-the-betting-gets-hard/

I also wrote a lengthier Editorial about that at LatestCasinoBonuses.com

Hollywood Casino in Columbus, Ohio and their PITA Promotion:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/promotions-to-avoid/

And, my report on the strike at Trump Taj Mahal, also with a lengthier piece on LCB:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/crossing-the-line/
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
AxelWolf
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July 30th, 2016 at 1:34:30 AM permalink
Quote: Mission146

First of all, here is an Article about the BetSoft Slots at Bovada with the (perhaps intentional, perhaps not) software problem that results in Jackpots being impossible to hit:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/when-the-betting-gets-hard/

I also wrote a lengthier Editorial about that at LatestCasinoBonuses.com

Hollywood Casino in Columbus, Ohio and their PITA Promotion:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/promotions-to-avoid/

And, my report on the strike at Trump Taj Mahal, also with a lengthier piece on LCB:

https://wizardofvegas.com/articles/crossing-the-line/

Can you explain how a casino doesn't know their game is holding 2% extra on a slot after many months and or years of play? Especially a popular game like Good girl bad girl. Not to mention all the other untested progessive slot machines. I bet if you went back and tested all of bet softs games you would find some kind of gaff. I highly doubt BV and Slots LV is going to pay back it's players 2% of their play on that game. I can't imagine how much that would amount to but I would guess it could run into the millions.
Last edited by: AxelWolf on Jul 30, 2016
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
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July 30th, 2016 at 7:30:52 AM permalink
I've read and enjoyed many of your articles. I can't help but ask you about one odd glitch in your writing, though. Why do you capitalize so many words that shouldn't be capitalized? For example, you write "Article" when you should write "article."

The result is that your writing looks like 18th century English, where all nouns were indeed capitalized. English writing today, however, only capitalizes actual proper nouns, and of course, the first word of a sentence. I am guessing that you think that capitalizing a word adds emphasis. It doesn't do that--it just looks silly.

You could improve your otherwise excellent writing by getting rid of this glitch.
odiousgambit
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July 30th, 2016 at 10:17:59 AM permalink
Quote: Joeshlabotnik

You could improve your otherwise excellent writing by getting rid of this glitch.



That's funny, I hadn't noticed that, but you're right. Perhaps I don't notice because I like to capitalize a word sometimes when strictly speaking, you're not supposed to. But Mission's articles are really bad, now that you mention it!
the next time Dame Fortune toys with your heart, your soul and your wallet, raise your glass and praise her thus: “Thanks for nothing, you cold-hearted, evil, damnable, nefarious, low-life, malicious monster from Hell!”   She is, after all, stone deaf. ... Arnold Snyder
mcallister3200
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July 30th, 2016 at 7:35:30 PM permalink
Quote: odiousgambit

. But Mission's articles are really bad, now that you mention it!


Haha
lilredrooster
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July 31st, 2016 at 1:30:45 AM permalink
I enjoyed and found useful your article about the 2 point conversion. Thank you for that. I am interested in the question of comparing the value or lack of value in betting the run line in baseball versus betting the more common money line. And also the various angles on betting the run line when you bet on or against the home team favorite who will not bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are ahead by one run. And if the game is tied going into the bottom of the 9th the home team must hit a home run with a man or men on base for the home team favorite to win on the run line. I've never seen an analysis of this. Of course, since betting on baseball is nowhere near as popular as betting on the NFL gambling writers don't generally pay much attention to it. I would speculate that the run line might have excellent value compared to the money line in certain situations.
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jul 31, 2016
Please don't feed the trolls
Joeshlabotnik
Joeshlabotnik
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July 31st, 2016 at 8:29:40 AM permalink
Quote: lilredrooster

I enjoyed and found useful your article about the 2 point conversion. Thank you for that. I am interested in the question of comparing the value or lack of value in betting the run line in baseball versus betting the more common money line. And also the various angles on betting the run line when you bet on or against the home team favorite who will not bat in the bottom of the 9th if they are ahead by one run. And if the game is tied going into the bottom of the 9th the home team must hit a home run with a man or men on base for the home team favorite to win on the run line. I've never seen an analysis of this. Of course, since betting on baseball is nowhere near as popular as betting on the NFL gambling writers don't generally pay much attention to it. I would speculate that the run line might have excellent value compared to the money line in certain situations.



Of course, this depends on the dubious premise that the casino isn't aware of this factor and doesn't set the prices (run lines are a form of money line) accordingly. What we need is historical data on how a bettor would have done taking the money line both for and against the home favorite over a significant period, say, all of last year. My wild guess is that a given sports book will have done just such a calculation (among others) and adjusted for any weaknesses in the run line.

Another possibility is that betting either for or against a home favorite with the run line is a better bet than simply taking a side, but doing so still results in a house advantage. The vig embedded in run lines is quite often much higher than the standard dime line on sides; you need a lot to overcome it, and it's doubtful that any simplistic strategy can do so.
cyberbabble
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July 31st, 2016 at 11:07:06 AM permalink
Wizard of Odds>sports betting>MLB
The Wiz developed a ML/RL conversion chart.
This would be a good place to start.
lilredrooster
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Joined: May 8, 2015
July 31st, 2016 at 1:35:39 PM permalink
Quote: Joeshlabotnik

Of course, this depends on the dubious premise that the casino isn't aware of this factor and doesn't set the prices (run lines are a form of money line) accordingly. What we need is historical data on how a bettor would have done taking the money line both for and against the home favorite over a significant period, say, all of last year. My wild guess is that a given sports book will have done just such a calculation (among others) and adjusted for any weaknesses in the run line.

Another possibility is that betting either for or against a home favorite with the run line is a better bet than simply taking a side, but doing so still results in a house advantage. The vig embedded in run lines is quite often much higher than the standard dime line on sides; you need a lot to overcome it, and it's doubtful that any simplistic strategy can do so.




Good point. I was thinking that if a pitcher with an excellent ERA such as 2.75 faces a pitcher with a poor ERA such as 5.50 that a run line bet on the team with the better pitcher might be a better bet than a straight money line bet if that fact is not factored into the differential of the 2 lines which if it was would result in a worse than usual padding of the run line payout on the team with the stronger pitcher. In the Wizard's writing on what is a fair run line he uses only the money line and the total to calculate a fair run line. If the books do it the same way as he indicated; and I am thinking that that is likely; then my presumption might be valid and in that situation a run line bet might be a better bet than a money line bet. In today's game; Athletics vs. Indians; weak pitcher Sonny Gray; ERA 5.43, faced strong pitcher Corey Kluber of the Indians; ERA 2.91. When I checked the lines on betonline.ag the Indians were -180 on the the money line and +110 on the run line although they were the home team favorite which would cause them to gain a few points.. They gained what seemed like a generous 90 points. Of course, this is just one game; but still it might indicate what I was saying.


https://wizardofodds.com/games/sports-betting/mlb/
Last edited by: lilredrooster on Jul 31, 2016
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lilredrooster
lilredrooster
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July 31st, 2016 at 3:59:13 PM permalink
Another question along these lines which I've never seen discussed is regarding the over/under bet in college basketball. I am referring to college instead of the NBA because the totals are usually quite a bit lower which would seem to make an over bet easier to hit. If 2 teams are a pick or the favorite is -1 or -1.5 that would indicate that these 2 teams a relatively equal in ability so that would seem to mean that it is much more likely that the game would go into overtime. If a game goes into overtime it is much, much more likely that the over bet will win. Is that factored into the the totals put up by the books? I really don't know. But if I had to guess I would say no. Which would mean in this situation the over might be a better bet.
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