kewlj
kewlj
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4635
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
August 15th, 2014 at 10:04:30 AM permalink
I woke at 6:11. After a quick shower, I head for the back yard to skim the pool and take my morning swim. This is my favorite time of day as I have the day all to myself. My partner, is awake, but he has a morning ritual, involving medications and wait periods in between and it takes him a couple hours before he is ready to begin his day. Our other 2 housemates, the 'professional' poker player and my brother, who moved in earlier this summer after graduating college are nite owls and late sleepers.

8am: With my partner and 'personal driver' at the wheel, we are on the Summerlin parkway heading for Las Vegas. We swing around the downtown area and head North on Las Vegas Blvd, crossing into north Las Vegas for our first stop at Jerry's Nugget. I love Jerry's Nugget. It is probably my favorite stop, now that we are all but banned from Club Fortune in Henderson. First things first, we hit the famous Jerry's nugget coffee shop (I don't know how famous it it...lol) for breakfast. My partner and I each have $10 weekly food credit from Jerry's, so we use one, while paying for the remaining $6 balance with comps.

We then hit the players club kiosk, printing out our weekly cash, mine $15, his $10, my $15 table game free bet and $15 match play voucher and his $10 free bet and match play, along with his addition $5 table game match play for being a senior. That's $25 cash, $25 free bets and $30 match play. That's $25 cash and $26.71 in EV, less a few cents negative EV, for the half dozen rounds played at the continuous shuffle machine blackjack game, which is the only blackjack game open. We'll call the expected value take from Jerry's $51. There is some video poker play required to generate this EV, which we usually hit one time during the month to keep these offers coming, but we did that last week. As we exit, I like to stop and watch the 'nickel feeders', playing the vintage old coin dropper machines, their silver colored arthritic fingers working a mile a minute. Lol. Unfortunately, poor timing means we missed out on purchasing some Jerry's Nugget's delicious baked goods as the bakery doesn't open until 11.

We then backtrack downtown, and I am dropped off across the street from El Cortez, while my partner heads to find a parking spot somewhere near the D area and play through some free play offers at the D, Las Vegas club/Plaza. Golden Nugget and Downtown Grand are in our rotation as well, but we split downtown play into 2 days and they are on another trip. El Cortez has great low limit blackjack but is notoriously sweaty, so I play short unrated sessions and we get no mail offers from them. I am heads up at the double deck game. Very average 60% penetration, I am getting 12 rounds before shuffle. First time through the shoe (El Cortez uses a shoe for their double deck), count stays pretty neutral. It rises slightly, just enough that at any other game, I would have bumped up my bet to the next level, but at EC, I bypass that and wait for something more significant. That second time through that something significant occurs. After 3 rounds, the true count is slightly more than +2. I make my first jump to $150. I lose when the dealer draws to a 20, but that means more small cards and I am in max bet territory. My max bets differ by casino tolerance level and at sweaty El Cortez on a weekday morning, I am topping out at $250, much less than most places. I get 8 rounds at max bet. The final round really wasn't max bet as count had dropped slightly, but it was still significantly positive so I remained at $250. Having shown my bet spread, I exit at the shuffle, rather than retreat back to a smaller wager. Unfortunately, I lost $1000 in those final 8 rounds of max bet, including one key double down. Total EV for the 24 rounds played: $24, total lost $1075.

On to The D were I hit the 6 deck BJ game. A very mediocre game as far as penetration and rules, but somehow D results are always in my top 5 casino results. I play through one shoe, with two other players, again showing my spread once and exiting at the shuffle. That is 22 rounds. My EV for 6 deck at that spread is 85 cents per round. That is slightly less than $19 EV (total EV $100). I register a small win of $225 (total loss $850). My partner has played through $115 free play at D on 3 different accounts for EV of about $113. His actual return was $145. He also played through a total of $6000 on two of the accounts to continue to generate our mail. That was an expected value loss of about $60. His actual loss was greater coming in at -$265. Subtracting the expected value loss of $60 from our free play EV of 113, we will call this EV +53, bringing our total EV for the day to $137 and our total loss for the day to -$970. The second pit at El Cortez is now open, so I close the downtown trip with a second short blackjack session at El Cortez, winning $325 over 2 times through the double deck game with 3 other people That's roughly $12 in EV.

My partner is waiting in the car across the street from EC and we head up Las Vegas Blvd to Paradise to LVH/Westgate, the former Las Vegas Hilton. We self park and immediately head to the monorail for a trip to the lower strip. It would have been more convenient to drive to lower strip, but my partner likes the monorail ride. It is as close as Vegas has to the subway back in his native Philadelphia. Lol. At $1 a ride for locals, we 'splurge'. :)

At MGM I play through two, 6 deck shoes of blackjack, registering a win of $562.50 with EV of $36. I play unrated at MGM, because I don't want to risk losing the whole chain, with any kind of backoff or heat issues. My partner heads across the street to Hooters, to play our weekly free play, $70 on 3 accounts, EV: $69. No play through, to generate continuing comps. That will come on another visit. We meet up at Tropicana, were we both play short sessions of blackjack. He wins $125, I lose $375. Total EV for the day: $316, Total loss for the day: -$332.50.

Back on the monorail to LVH. It's 1:45 and we head straight to the buffet, which closes at 2:30 (reopens at 5). Weekday lunch price is $19.99, but $4 for local, paying with points, which we do. This is one of the better values for locals in my opinion. After lunch my partner plays through our free play, $130 on three accounts, EV: $127, actual return a disappointing $55. He also plays through $6000 coin at a negative EV of $60. His actual results are +45.

I hit the blackjack table. I like the low limit table at LVH, because it offers a side bet called wild aces, which generates extra EV. The crowded conditions of the low limit table probably offset, the benefit, but I still enjoy it. I play through three shoes, with the count never going very far from neutral. EV: $45, actual loss -$137.50.

Total expected value for the day: $428. Actual loss: -$370. At 3:10, we head home for a dip in the pool and a nap. :)
DRich
DRich
  • Threads: 86
  • Posts: 11596
Joined: Jul 6, 2012
August 15th, 2014 at 10:32:33 AM permalink
Great write up. This really shows the amount of time and effort required to play as a pro.
At my age, a "Life In Prison" sentence is not much of a deterrent.
kmumf
kmumf
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 182
Joined: Jul 5, 2011
August 15th, 2014 at 10:46:25 AM permalink
Thanks for the read. Please feel free to add more in the future.
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
August 15th, 2014 at 10:52:46 AM permalink
I always appreciate your stories. Not all pros are willing to show us wannabees how much work is involved. From an outsiders perspective it seems like a lot of fun other than the stress of the money.

Question, you said he ran about 12k through at 2 locations to keep the mailers. Don't you think you would get better mailers from 1 location if you ran that amount there instead of spreading it out?
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 2501
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
August 15th, 2014 at 11:04:59 AM permalink
post of the month kewlj!

On a couple of prior trips, I got a glimpse of the 'locals' craps life by meeting with superrick.

Now I have a great glimpse at what a 'local' AP's day looks like.

How do you determine how long to play each day?
Do you play to a certain EV amount, and whatever the result is, that is what you take?
Or, do you play to a set win/loss amount?

It is obvious that you play short sessions to keep from getting any heat, but as a local, you must be hitting the same places week after week. I can be quite clueless at times, but I gotta say, I am pretty certain I would start recognizing you week after week, especially if you are throwing out $300+ sized bets.
Do you think they let you play, since you don't pound on them shoe after shoe?
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Boz
Boz
  • Threads: 155
  • Posts: 5701
Joined: Sep 22, 2011
August 15th, 2014 at 11:11:28 AM permalink
I was kind of thiking the same thing as Raleigh. I enjoy the posts and your honesty, but are you taking a risk by posting this info? It seems like the El Cortez would be all over your big bets and some PB would be asking for a reshuffle.
chickenman
chickenman
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 997
Joined: Nov 1, 2009
August 15th, 2014 at 11:13:05 AM permalink
Good questions. I have often wondered about longevity even given the numerous games available in Vegas and the ability to alternate against a wide range of days/shifts.
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 2501
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
August 15th, 2014 at 11:34:58 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

I was kind of thiking the same thing as Raleigh. I enjoy the posts and your honesty, but are you taking a risk by posting this info? It seems like the El Cortez would be all over your big bets and some PB would be asking for a reshuffle.



Of course, kewlj could always be giving out the correct details of the play, but be mistaken of which casino ;-)
That would leave a few PBs spinning their wheels.......
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
chickenman
chickenman
  • Threads: 3
  • Posts: 997
Joined: Nov 1, 2009
August 15th, 2014 at 11:37:02 AM permalink
I thought the same thing, IIRC he's backed off from a few places so wouldn't hurt at all to fictionalize the account with their names
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 28570
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
August 15th, 2014 at 12:15:44 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Total expected value for the day: $428. Actual loss: -$370.



How many days a week end like this?
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
rainman
rainman
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 1860
Joined: Mar 28, 2012
August 15th, 2014 at 12:35:43 PM permalink
I thought your partner was a cougar! If he is getting senior discounts he must be a jaguar or something. :)
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 3577
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
August 15th, 2014 at 1:07:02 PM permalink
Most floor people don't want to do actual work. A strength in the extreme short session approach, is that even if they do recognize him or suspect his play over time, many floor will know that he's going to be gone by the time surveillance or a shift boss could do anything about it. Even if they have the authority to do it themselves it's more of a hassle for them to do anything about it than not do anything, he isn't making them look bad for doing nothing. If he were to play "short" hour long sessions, or camp out, the results might be different.
mcallister3200
mcallister3200
  • Threads: 17
  • Posts: 3577
Joined: Dec 29, 2013
August 15th, 2014 at 1:09:13 PM permalink
BTW, enjoyed the day report, a good read.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 28570
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
August 15th, 2014 at 1:42:11 PM permalink
If you hit a win that puts you ahead $300 halfway
thru the $6000 coin through, do you stop or continue.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
kewlj
kewlj
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4635
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
August 15th, 2014 at 4:43:50 PM permalink
Yeah, there is a chance, some of my post is a bit revealing. Probably too much info about the downtown sweaty joint. But I get little heat there. I have been pretty golden there since Mo retired in spring of 2013. He was all over me, all the time....even backed me off in the men's room one time. (umm...that's backed me off with a B...lol). I thought that was very rude and told him so in no uncertain terms. I play VERY short sessions there though. 12, 15 rounds and then I am gone.

I do play the same rotation of 24-30 casinos on an almost weekly basis. Some I only hit a couple times a month. Because I play short sessions, and try to find and stay within each casino's comfort or tolerance level, I do think some floor people look the other way. McAllister has it right. They look the other way for a few minutes and I am gone without them doing a darn thing. That's the easy way and that's human nature.

No EB, wins and losses do not alter the coin thru play. The plan is to get a certain amount of coin through to generate certain level of mailers. Wins and losses during that coin through is really irrelevant. The wins (including periodic royals) will come along with the losses. The object is to hit a certain coin in target.

Someone asked if it wouldn't be better to play only one store as far as machine play and put all the coin in through that one location to generate a bigger mailer. It doesn't really work that way. There are different tiers or levels that generate different amounts. Once you hit a certain level it can be quite a ways up to the next level. We have found that this mid level seems to work best for our needs. The object is to try to figure out what levels generate what and that can be difficult as they change all the time. Currently there are a number of casinos in Vegas going through a real 'tightening' phase. A couple places I am not even sure what's going on. You do your best to figure it out.
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 100
  • Posts: 14260
Joined: May 21, 2013
August 16th, 2014 at 1:40:44 AM permalink
Fantastic read, kewlj. Thank you! Love that the monorail figures in to your routine. I am dismayed they've raised the price so much for us visitors, but glad you have a decent fare.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
pokerface
pokerface
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 514
Joined: May 9, 2010
August 16th, 2014 at 8:45:01 AM permalink
great read!
Didn't know locals have so much discount on buffets and monorail.
winning streaks come and go, losing streak never ends.
HoleintheAce
HoleintheAce
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 8
Joined: Apr 17, 2014
August 16th, 2014 at 12:18:19 PM permalink
In regards to freeplay/matchplay mailers, which property gives you the most value, if you don't mind me asking?
djatc
djatc
  • Threads: 83
  • Posts: 4477
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
August 16th, 2014 at 3:23:54 PM permalink
I was expecting stories of you with a ken uston like performance playing 7 spots of $1000 on a monster count and winning..... While wearing a 1980s drug dealer getup after snorting some coke in the casino bathroom.

Isn't that how all card counters operate?
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
djatc
djatc
  • Threads: 83
  • Posts: 4477
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
August 16th, 2014 at 3:30:39 PM permalink
Quote: HoleintheAce

In regards to freeplay/matchplay mailers, which property gives you the most value, if you don't mind me asking?



I can't speak for kewlj but if you start pm'ing people here with information to trade I'm sure you'll get results. I know of great mailers but of course choose not to disclose as more people hitting it could lower the mailers.

My tip is to find the casino closest to your house in which you get OK mailers but also food comps, giveaways since you will be there more likely then another casino across town with the same amenities. I currently enjoy dining comps every other day at a spot I live close to and factor it in my return since I eat there a lot.

PS its not a mcdonalds
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
kewlj
kewlj
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4635
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
August 16th, 2014 at 5:21:34 PM permalink
Quote: djatc

I was expecting stories of you with a ken uston like performance playing 7 spots of $1000 on a monster count and winning..... While wearing a 1980s drug dealer getup after snorting some coke in the casino bathroom.

Isn't that how all card counters operate?



Not how ALL of us work. Some of us keep a low profile, or at least try to. :)
pokerface
pokerface
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 514
Joined: May 9, 2010
August 16th, 2014 at 7:55:26 PM permalink
Quote: djatc


PS its not a mcdonalds


I thought free meals at McDonalds is much more difficult to get than at most Vegas casinos.
winning streaks come and go, losing streak never ends.
4ofaKind
4ofaKind
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 221
Joined: Sep 28, 2010
August 17th, 2014 at 6:48:25 AM permalink
Reading many posts about the daily lives of professional card counters, I must admit I’ve often wondered why any person TODAY would even want to consider doing this for their livelihood. I certainly would understand a retired person or a weekend warrior with the bankroll to risk and with the ability to count giving it a go for extra income.

But, slivering from casino to casino like a snake or a fish constantly changing colors to blend in with the coral just seems so wrong to me. I couldn’t imagine always looking around and over my shoulder, always being certain to act and play a certain unnatural way, jumping from one casino to another after showing my spread or suspecting heat, never knowing when I might get the tap on the shoulder.

Let’s face it; this isn’t the late 70’s, 80’s, or 90’s. There won’t be any more movies made about any MIT teams crushing the casinos. The casinos are evolving and keeping up security wise just as fast as any counter or new systems are. I’m certain there are at times short term advantage windows that open for players, but never for long meaningful times anymore.

Personally, I believe counters that are long term successful are so in a small way. There is no way a counter TODAY could get away with making millions of dollars and live the life of a high roller. Obviously, if one has to worry about certain play to get free ten or fifteen dollar weekly match play coupons or lunches for four dollars would indicate that watching pennies is important, and far from a lavish lifestyle that could otherwise be achieved putting your endless efforts into another career.

I think that counters today that are temporally successful, and by temporally successful I mean at this point are still financially ahead, are no fear to the casinos, and the casinos will constantly play the game of ridding a counter only to get ready for the next new counter, and excepts this as a cost of doing business.

With constant rule changes over the years to the game, and modern technology playing a role, if card counting was still that promising and threatening to the casinos bottom line, the game wouldn’t exist after all these decades. Just read monthly house holds of the BJ games and you’ll see it’s a worthwhile game that’s paying off to maintain even with all the necessary surveillance at all casinos.

This is just my opinion, and I stand ready to be corrected if my thoughts are wrong.
GWAE
GWAE
  • Threads: 93
  • Posts: 9854
Joined: Sep 20, 2013
August 17th, 2014 at 7:05:41 AM permalink
I don't think APs do it to live a lavish lifestyle and make millions. It seems that most APs make a decent living doing something they enjoy and only respond to themselves instead of reporting to a 9-5.

Different strokes for different folks. To you it may not seem worth it, but to me I would love to give it a shot if I had the ability and starting bankroll.
Expect the worst and you will never be disappointed. I AM NOT PART OF GWAE RADIO SHOW
speedycrap
speedycrap
  • Threads: 46
  • Posts: 1305
Joined: Oct 13, 2013
August 17th, 2014 at 7:40:00 AM permalink
Quote: GWAE

I don't think APs do it to live a lavish lifestyle and make millions. It seems that most APs make a decent living doing something they enjoy and only respond to themselves instead of reporting to a 9-5.

Different strokes for different folks. To you it may not seem worth it, but to me I would love to give it a shot if I had the ability and starting bankroll.

I fully agree.
1BB
1BB
  • Threads: 18
  • Posts: 5339
Joined: Oct 10, 2011
August 17th, 2014 at 7:47:13 AM permalink
Quote: 4ofaKind

Reading many posts, about the daily lives of professional card counters, I must admit I’ve often wondered why any person TODAY would even want to consider doing this for their livelihood. I certainly would understand a retired person or a weekend warrior with the bankroll to risk and with the ability to count giving it a go for extra income.

But, slivering from casino to casino like a snake or a fish constantly changing colors to blend in with the coral just seems so wrong to me. I couldn’t imagine always looking around and over my shoulder, always being certain to act a certain unnatural way, jumping from one casino to another after showing my spread or suspecting heat, never knowing when I might get the tap on the shoulder.

Let’s face it; this isn’t the late 70’s, 80’s, or 90’s. There won’t be any more movies made about any MIT teams crushing the casinos. The casinos are evolving and keeping up security wise just as fast as any counter or new systems are. I’m certain there are at times short term advantage windows that open for players, but never for long meaningful times anymore.

Personally, I believe counters that are long term successful are so in a small way. There is no way a counter TODAY could get away with making millions of dollars and live the life of a high roller. Obviously, if one has to worry about certain play to get free ten or fifteen dollar weekly match play coupons or lunches for four dollars would indicate that watching pennies is important, and far from a lavish lifestyle that could otherwise be achieved putting your endless efforts into another career.

I think that counters today that are temporally successful, and by temporally successful I mean at this point are still financially ahead, are no fear to the casinos, and the casinos will constantly play the game of ridding a counter only to get ready for the next new counter, and excepts this as a cost of doing business.

With constant rule changes over the years to the game, and modern technology playing a role, if card counting was still that promising and threatening to the casinos bottom line the game wouldn’t exist after all these decades. Just read monthly house holds of the BJ games and you’ll see it’s a worthwhile game that’s paying off to maintain even with all the surveillance at all casinos.

This is just my opinion, and I stand ready to be corrected if my thoughts are wrong.



This post should be required reading for all aspiring card counters. It is precisely why I don't encourage anyone in this endeavor. If a person has all the qualities required and the bankroll required to "beat" the game of blackjack, this person surely could put those talents to better use. I certainly acknowledge that there are those making a good living playing blackjack today however they are an extremely small minority.

I played for a living back in the times you mention and I made a lot of money. I played the single deck Nevada games with the good rules that were dealt all the way down. You could jump your bet from table minimum to table max without anyone batting an eye. I played the four deck Atlantic City games with early surrender. Yes, early surrender. They did not last long.

Today, more than ever, the counter is at the mercy of the casino. Always wondering who's watching, always wondering when they'll get the tap. No thanks. I still play and I still win what the casinos allows me to. If you frequent casinos often enough, they will know you and there's not a thing you can do about it. I'm near two of the largest in the world and I am instantly recognized the moment I walk in. It doesn't matter what day, shift or hour or how long I've stayed away.

To the few who are making it work I salute you. No one can appreciate or understand the hard work, discipline and sacrifice that it takes to succeed unless they've been there.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
kewlj
kewlj
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4635
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
August 17th, 2014 at 9:10:10 AM permalink
Quote: 4ofaKind

Personally, I believe counters that are long term successful are so in a small way. There is no way a counter TODAY could get away with making millions of dollars and live the life of a high roller. Obviously, if one has to worry about certain play to get free ten or fifteen dollar weekly match play coupons or lunches for four dollars would indicate that watching pennies is important, and far from a lavish lifestyle that could otherwise be achieved putting your endless efforts into another career.



You are correct, a lavish lifestyle and the life of a high roller is much more difficult, if not impossible to achieve from card counting in 2014. But those aren't my goals. My goal is to make a comfortable living doing something that I enjoy and despite what you may want to believe that is still possible if you are disciplined and work at it. I have made more than 275 grand APing in 2012 and 2013 and just about 200 grand was from card counting (admittedly, both these years were above expectation). But even upper 5 figures or just touching 6 figures which is closer to expectation is a comfortable living for me, especially residing in Las Vegas were the cost of living and housing is modest. It also is a pretty good living for someone like myself, who did not go to college and left a job paying less than 20 grand to pursue this career.

Quote: 4ofaKind


But, slivering from casino to casino like a snake or a fish constantly changing colors to blend in with the coral just seems so wrong to me. I couldn’t imagine always looking around and over my shoulder, always being certain to act and play a certain unnatural way, jumping from one casino to another after showing my spread or suspecting heat, never knowing when I might get the tap on the shoulder.



This part of you post sounds as if you are one of those pro-casino types (the PGDan's) who want to paint card counters as evil and I take a little bit of exception to it.

How about looking at it the other way: Casino's are in the business of providing gaming to the public. But they want to pick and choose who plays. They would like to play agains, poor players and drunken players only. And they want to eliminate anyone who thinks a little bit, as if thinking is a crime. I equate this 'cherry picking of your clientele to a sports team, scheduling nothing but weak opponents and refusing to play the good opponents. We see this every year in college football when teams like Michigan and Florida schedule teams like Wolford, Stephen F Austin and Bethume-Cookman International (yes, Florida is playing Bethume-Cookman International in football this year). Is cherry picking only the weak opponents that you can beat a fair practice? (for casino or college football)

But whatever. It is what it is. The courts have ruled that casinos have a right to "cherry pick" their clientele and exclude those that are not weak players. They also have ruled that card counting is not illegal. So we have this stalemate. We play this cat and mouse game. I look at it as one of the obstacle of this profession. Just as professional sports players trying to score a goal or touchdown have an opponent trying to stop them from doing so. All professions have obstacles. This is where strategy and planning come in. Playing short sessions, and identifying the tolerance levels of different places is just that...strategy. I make no apologies for it and I make no apologies for playing the game within the rules and within the law and beating an industry which preys on the weak.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22272
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
August 17th, 2014 at 11:15:43 AM permalink
Quote: 4ofaKind

Reading many posts about the daily lives of professional card counters, I must admit I’ve often wondered why any person TODAY would even want to consider doing this for their livelihood. I certainly would understand a retired person or a weekend warrior with the bankroll to risk and with the ability to count giving it a go for extra income.

But, slivering from casino to casino like a snake or a fish constantly changing colors to blend in with the coral just seems so wrong to me. I couldn’t imagine always looking around and over my shoulder, always being certain to act and play a certain unnatural way, jumping from one casino to another after showing my spread or suspecting heat, never knowing when I might get the tap on the shoulder.

Let’s face it; this isn’t the late 70’s, 80’s, or 90’s. There won’t be any more movies made about any MIT teams crushing the casinos. The casinos are evolving and keeping up security wise just as fast as any counter or new systems are. I’m certain there are at times short term advantage windows that open for players, but never for long meaningful times anymore.

Personally, I believe counters that are long term successful are so in a small way. There is no way a counter TODAY could get away with making millions of dollars and live the life of a high roller. Obviously, if one has to worry about certain play to get free ten or fifteen dollar weekly match play coupons or lunches for four dollars would indicate that watching pennies is important, and far from a lavish lifestyle that could otherwise be achieved putting your endless efforts into another career.

I think that counters today that are temporally successful, and by temporally successful I mean at this point are still financially ahead, are no fear to the casinos, and the casinos will constantly play the game of ridding a counter only to get ready for the next new counter, and excepts this as a cost of doing business.

With constant rule changes over the years to the game, and modern technology playing a role, if card counting was still that promising and threatening to the casinos bottom line, the game wouldn’t exist after all these decades. Just read monthly house holds of the BJ games and you’ll see it’s a worthwhile game that’s paying off to maintain even with all the necessary surveillance at all casinos.

This is just my opinion, and I stand ready to be corrected if my thoughts are wrong.

straight up card counting is a harder gig to make money at then most people think. Most of the really successful counters advance into other things(hole carding, steering, SHFL tracking, rebates etc etc) . They travel for strong games( early surrender etc) special promotions (2 to 1 blackjack etc).

If you do it right, one does not need millions, not even close(thousands only if done right), to live a lavish CASINO life style as far as huge suits, free travel, expensive meals, shows, limos parties and the red carpet treatment. That s*it gets old and is not as exiting after a while. The time spend jacking around with all of that takes away from making money. Most AP's want to save their money so they can keep advancing there limits and be ready for slow times.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
kingdomofsalild
kingdomofsalild
  • Threads: 1
  • Posts: 16
Joined: Aug 10, 2014
August 17th, 2014 at 12:55:51 PM permalink
Kewj, seeking your advice. If I'm moving up to a $200 max bet on 2 spots, is it ok to bet black chips or is that asking for too much attention (spreading green to black). I prefer not to put out 2 stacks of 8 chips, seems like to many chips to keep on the table.
4ofaKind
4ofaKind
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 221
Joined: Sep 28, 2010
August 17th, 2014 at 1:13:52 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj


This part of you post sounds as if you are one of those pro-casino types (the PGDan's) who want to paint card counters as evil and I take a little bit of exception to it.

How about looking at it the other way: Casino's are in the business of providing gaming to the public. But they want to pick and choose who plays. They would like to play agains, poor players and drunken players only. And they want to eliminate anyone who thinks a little bit, as if thinking is a crime. I equate this 'cherry picking of your clientele to a sports team, scheduling nothing but weak opponents and refusing to play the good opponents. We see this every year in college football when teams like Michigan and Florida schedule teams like Wolford, Stephen F Austin and Bethume-Cookman International (yes, Florida is playing Bethume-Cookman International in football this year). Is cherry picking only the weak opponents that you can beat a fair practice? (for casino or college football)

But whatever. It is what it is. The courts have ruled that casinos have a right to "cherry pick" their clientele and exclude those that are not weak players. They also have ruled that card counting is not illegal. So we have this stalemate. We play this cat and mouse game. I look at it as one of the obstacle of this profession. Just as professional sports players trying to score a goal or touchdown have an opponent trying to stop them from doing so. All professions have obstacles. This is where strategy and planning come in. Playing short sessions, and identifying the tolerance levels of different places is just that...strategy. I make no apologies for it and I make no apologies for playing the game within the rules and within the law and beating an industry which preys on the weak.



I’m not certain why you took exception to my post. I only put in print how I see things.

I’m also concerned how after reading my post you possibly could suggest I might be a pro-casino type that wants to paint card counters as evil. If you believe this your thinking is blurred.

Not sure why you went into the rant of casinos getting their selective ways, most here are aware of the history. I’m talking about conditions that exist today, not how it got this bad.
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 28570
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
August 17th, 2014 at 1:25:03 PM permalink
Quote: 4ofaKind


I’m also concerned how after reading my post you possibly could suggest I might be a pro-casino type that wants to paint card counters as evil. .



Because this is exactly the line anti AP, pro
casino types take:

"But, slivering from casino to casino like a snake or a fish constantly changing colors to blend in with the coral just seems so wrong to me. I couldn’t imagine always looking around and over my shoulder, always being certain to act and play a certain unnatural way, jumping from one casino to another after showing my spread or suspecting heat, never knowing when I might get the tap on the shoulder."

They like to paint AP's as being quasi crooks,
slithering around, always looking over their
shoulders, constantly in fear, acting just like
the criminal element acts. I also thought you
probably worked for a casino, you sound just
like them.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
RaleighCraps
RaleighCraps
  • Threads: 79
  • Posts: 2501
Joined: Feb 20, 2010
August 17th, 2014 at 1:38:15 PM permalink
It is funny how we can all read the same words, and yet get completely different meanings from those words.
I read what 4ofaKind wrote, yet did not interpret it the same way as EB and kewlj.

I read it as 4ofakind was just saying that the life of an AP, having to constantly look over their shoulders (TRUE), trying to lay low (TRUE), never stay too long (TRUE), would take away from his enjoyment of going to a casino. I did not believe he was taking a PGD type of pro-casino stance. I did not initially even associate the snake aspect, but I can now see where EB and kewlj did read it that way.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
  • Threads: 164
  • Posts: 22272
Joined: Oct 10, 2012
August 17th, 2014 at 1:44:10 PM permalink
Quote: EvenBob

Because this is exactly the line anti AP, pro
casino types take:

"But, slivering from casino to casino like a snake or a fish constantly changing colors to blend in with the coral just seems so wrong to me. I couldn’t imagine always looking around and over my shoulder, always being certain to act and play a certain unnatural way, jumping from one casino to another after showing my spread or suspecting heat, never knowing when I might get the tap on the shoulder."

They like to paint AP's as being quasi crooks,
slithering around, always looking over their
shoulders, constantly in fear, acting just like
the criminal element acts. I also thought you
probably worked for a casino, you sound just
like them.

4ofakind as been around online for years . He has had some interesting online casino adventures he was well respected on a different forum. I think he got burnt significantly from what I can remember. he may even feel betrayed and dislikes the entire industry.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
EvenBob
EvenBob
  • Threads: 441
  • Posts: 28570
Joined: Jul 18, 2010
August 17th, 2014 at 1:58:35 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

he may even feel betrayed and dislikes the entire industry.



I dislike the entire industry and I've never
been betrayed or had bad experiences.
But I've always known what they are and
didn't have any positive expectations. My
gaming them starts when I walk in the door
and never ends till I leave. The actual playing
is only a small part of it.
"It's not called gambling if the math is on your side."
4ofaKind
4ofaKind
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 221
Joined: Sep 28, 2010
August 17th, 2014 at 3:20:27 PM permalink
Other then firing up some personalities with the metaphors I used, followed by a baseless rant, and then combined with an inaccurate assumption of how I may feel towards the entire industry; I guess it’s safe to say my thoughts are well placed.

Kewlj, certainly exposed the type of hard work actually involved just to make a modest and honest salary counting cards today. I envy any counter with the will to be successful in today’s environment with all the obstacles that have been put in place.

The numbers Kewlj was willing to share with us certainly would confirm he’s a pro.

@ Kewlj,
Were those numbers yours alone or a combined total of yours and your partners play?
Eaglesnest
Eaglesnest
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 125
Joined: Jul 29, 2014
August 17th, 2014 at 3:22:57 PM permalink
Quote: 4ofaKind

I’m not certain why you took exception to my post. I only put in print how I see things.

I’m also concerned how after reading my post you possibly could suggest I might be a pro-casino type that wants to paint card counters as evil. If you believe this your thinking is blurred.

Not sure why you went into the rant of casinos getting their selective ways, most here are aware of the history. I’m talking about conditions that exist today, not how it got this bad.



The fact of the matter is that casinos are evil. They exist to exploit the weak and unwary, and their business ethics are shamefully shoddy. Anyone who is pro-casino would also likely have been pro-Nazi in an earlier era. I applaud anyone who strangles them with their own rope, and I say that while having encountered most APs I have known as not exactly admirable or engaging people.

It is a simple truth that to make a living as an AP requires a level of diligence AND a hefty bankroll that applied in just about any other endeavor, would yield superior results, and without the risk of being dragged down to the basement and/or arrested. I think the only reason there are ANY APs today is that the present horrid business/economic climate, exacerbated by the internet, has made it impossible for many people to make a conventional living (or to be successful conventional entrepreneurs). Playing blackjack for a living is like searching landfills for resellable disposable diapers for a living. It's tedious, it stinks, and you put in a lot of effort, often for nothing.
rxwine
rxwine
  • Threads: 209
  • Posts: 12164
Joined: Feb 28, 2010
August 17th, 2014 at 3:35:32 PM permalink
Quote: RaleighCraps

read it as 4ofakind was just saying that the life of an AP, having to constantly look over their shoulders (TRUE), trying to lay low (TRUE), never stay too long (TRUE), would take away from his enjoyment of going to a casino. I did not believe he was taking a PGD type of pro-casino stance.



I actually think this adds to it. Unless you get beat up.

Outwit, outlast, outplay. (okay that's Survivor). But some people find that part fun not a PITA.

To each his own I guess.
There's no secret. Just know what you're talking about before you open your mouth.
Deucekies
Deucekies
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 1421
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
August 17th, 2014 at 4:31:21 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

Anyone who is pro-casino would also likely have been pro-Nazi in an earlier era.


Way to Godwin yourself. You just lost all credibility you may have ever had on this board.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
kewlj
kewlj
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4635
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
August 17th, 2014 at 6:01:51 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

Playing blackjack for a living is like searching landfills for resellable disposable diapers for a living. It's tedious, it stinks, and you put in a lot of effort, often for nothing.



This is a pretty 'crappy' analogy (pun intended) and quite frankly, pretty bizarre. If I felt this way, I would find something else to do for a living. In my own case, I love playing blackjack for a living. Now that's not to say there aren't some bad days. Days when losing gets to you. Day's when the casino environment get to you. Nasty dealers. Backoffs. Obnoxious players. Days when you go home and say "wow, what a lousy day". But this is no different than any other profession. I mean don't professionals in other fields have lousy day? Days that your proposal isn't accepted or you 'pitch' to a client rejected. Days that your boss comes down on you for no particular reason than that HIS boss came down on him.

But bad days aside, when I look at the big picture, I love what I do. I am having a pretty significant "off" year, that has had more than it's share of frustrations, but I can still tell you without a moments hesitation, that I love what I do for a living and that makes me one of the 'luckiest' people I know. :)
djatc
djatc
  • Threads: 83
  • Posts: 4477
Joined: Jan 15, 2013
August 17th, 2014 at 7:48:22 PM permalink
Big difference between those who complain and do nothing and those who find new ways to find advantage plays. Thanks for giving up, more money for me to get.
"Man Babes" #AxelFabulous
pokerface
pokerface
  • Threads: 12
  • Posts: 514
Joined: May 9, 2010
August 17th, 2014 at 8:39:01 PM permalink
I appreciate those who share the new ways ( of AP plays) on this forum
winning streaks come and go, losing streak never ends.
4ofaKind
4ofaKind
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 221
Joined: Sep 28, 2010
August 18th, 2014 at 9:27:57 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

I have made more than 275 grand APing in 2012 and 2013 and just about 200 grand was from card counting (admittedly, both these years were above expectation).



Were those numbers yours alone or a combined total of yours and your partners play?
Eaglesnest
Eaglesnest
  • Threads: 6
  • Posts: 125
Joined: Jul 29, 2014
August 18th, 2014 at 12:37:37 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

Way to Godwin yourself. You just lost all credibility you may have ever had on this board.



I only did that just to see if some bozo would mention Godwin's so-called Law. I'm now about 20-for-20 in that regard. Some bait ALWAYS gets a nibble :)
Deucekies
Deucekies
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 1421
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
August 18th, 2014 at 1:24:21 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

I only did that just to see if some bozo would mention Godwin's so-called Law. I'm now about 20-for-20 in that regard. Some bait ALWAYS gets a nibble :)


So you admit that you're trolling then? Very good.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 100
  • Posts: 14260
Joined: May 21, 2013
August 18th, 2014 at 1:29:14 PM permalink
Quote: Eaglesnest

I only did that just to see if some bozo would mention Godwin's so-called Law. I'm now about 20-for-20 in that regard. Some bait ALWAYS gets a nibble :)



Nobody on here is a "bozo". Trolling is also not welcome. Please read the rules while you're on break. Three days. Thanks.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Deucekies
Deucekies
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 1421
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
August 18th, 2014 at 1:33:15 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Nobody on here is a "bozo". Trolling is also not welcome. Please read the rules while you're on break. Three days. Thanks.


I ask that you consider Eaglesnest was suspended on 7/31, less than 30 days ago.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
beachbumbabs
beachbumbabs
  • Threads: 100
  • Posts: 14260
Joined: May 21, 2013
August 18th, 2014 at 1:39:09 PM permalink
Quote: Deucekies

I ask that you consider Eaglesnest was suspended on 7/31, less than 30 days ago.



I see that now, thanks. I'm going to stick with 3 days in this case, and Martingale from there if necessary. I think he meant this post as a joke, so I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt as to intention. The previous situation, he responded too aggressively, but was not necessarily the provocateur.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
Deucekies
Deucekies
  • Threads: 57
  • Posts: 1421
Joined: Jan 20, 2014
August 18th, 2014 at 1:41:22 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

I see that now, thanks. I'm going to stick with 3 days in this case, and Martingale from there if necessary. I think he meant this post as a joke, so I'm giving it the benefit of the doubt as to intention. The previous situation, he responded too aggressively, but was not necessarily the provocateur.


Very well.
Casinos are not your friends, they want your money. But so does Disneyland. And there is no chance in hell that you will go to Disneyland and come back with more money than you went with. - AxelWolf and Mickeycrimm
4ofaKind
4ofaKind
  • Threads: 11
  • Posts: 221
Joined: Sep 28, 2010
August 18th, 2014 at 2:27:25 PM permalink
For the members that might not be aware of Mike Godwin's Law.

Godwin's law (or Godwin's Rule of Nazi Analogies) if an online discussion (regardless of topic or scope) goes on long enough, sooner or later someone will compare someone or something to Hitler or Nazism.



Quote: kewlj

I have made more than 275 grand APing in 2012 and 2013 and just about 200 grand was from card counting (admittedly, both these years were above expectation).



Were those numbers yours alone or a combined total of yours and your partners play?
kewlj
kewlj
  • Threads: 216
  • Posts: 4635
Joined: Apr 17, 2012
August 18th, 2014 at 3:19:42 PM permalink
Quote: 4ofaKind

For the members that might not be aware of Mike Godwin's Law.

Godwin's law (or Godwin's Rule of Nazi Analogies) if an online discussion (regardless of topic or scope) goes on long enough, sooner or later someone will compare someone or something to Hitler or Nazism.





Were those numbers yours alone or a combined total of yours and your partners play?



Numbers quoted were my share of our partnership.
  • Jump to: