Poll

16 votes (94.11%)
1 vote (5.88%)

17 members have voted

AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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May 19th, 2014 at 4:54:01 PM permalink
Quote: onenickelmiracle

Maybe people pick what feels different, but this discussion seems past the scope of the project anyways. I know what you're saying being common sense, but sometime common sense is wrong.



Ok, now I see what you are saying. You are saying that, possibly, if the majority are straight then the bent ones will be more likely to be picked, and if the majority are bent then the straight ones will be more likely to be picked.

This isn't really a control, but I think you are right. To really do this well, you would want to run, perhaps, 4 experiments, with 10%, 25%, 75%, and 90% bent. That is a lot of work though. Maybe we could parallelize it. I'd be willing to collect some data...

You really need to do a lot of drawings for each experiment, too.
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 19th, 2014 at 4:54:58 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

What do you mean by crimping? Just turning a corner up? I've seen all sorts of tickets (bent all sorts of different ways) in the barrel. When they picked them I tried to get a look at the tickets and they did not seem bent (although I was a bit far away) which lead me to ask this question. As you say, it's possible that they are avoiding the bent ones. Then again, it wasn't the same person who picked each ticket.

yes sort of like bending the corners up. You palm them and squeeze them with your fingers and thumb. it creates a wave and and hold the shape better. Its a pain in the ass if you have a ton of tickets.

Are you crying you didn't win and now are wondering what you could have done different?
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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May 19th, 2014 at 5:00:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxelWolf

yes sort of like bending the corners up. You palm them and squeeze them with your fingers and thumb. it creates a wave and and hold the shape better. Its a pain in the ass if you have a ton of tickets.

Are you crying you didn't win and now are wondering what you could have done different?



Well, I didn't win, but I will be involved in many more of these in the future, and, if there is an optimal strategy, I want to be following it. Not so much crying about the past as preparing for the future.
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 19th, 2014 at 5:05:44 PM permalink
I had to buy a huge role of tickets. If anybody in Vegas would like to volunteer to help I'd be happy to provide some tickets, as I don't need all of them, and include you in the glory of the results. I plan to make at least an Ask the Wizard question out of it, and maybe a YouTube video. For anyone outside of Vegas who would like to help, I'd be happy to send the money for you to buy the tickets yourself. A big roll is about $10.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 22nd, 2014 at 7:51:51 PM permalink
Here is a progress report on the experiment. I had my mother in law fold 200 tickets in half at a 90-degree angle and put them in a bag along with 200 unfolded tickets. Then I had other members of my family draw tickets one at a time. Here are the results so far:

7-year old daughter:

Folded: 12
Unfolded: 8

12-year old son:

Folded: 14
Unfolded: 6

Wife:

Folded: 11
Unfolded: 9

Total

Folded: 37
Unfolded: 23

I'll collect some more data, but the preliminary data certainly favors folded tickets.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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May 22nd, 2014 at 7:54:05 PM permalink
Wow, good to know.

Was the drawing done with or without replacement?
AxelWolf
AxelWolf
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May 22nd, 2014 at 8:04:43 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Wow, good to know.

Was the drawing done with or without replacement?

I still say no experiment is needed to know this. Just ask Axel, that's Scientific enough.
♪♪Now you swear and kick and beg us That you're not a gamblin' man Then you find you're back in Vegas With a handle in your hand♪♪ Your black cards can make you money So you hide them when you're able In the land of casinos and money You must put them on the table♪♪ You go back Jack do it again roulette wheels turinin' 'round and 'round♪♪ You go back Jack do it again♪♪
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 22nd, 2014 at 8:05:07 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Was the drawing done with or without replacement?



A hybrid. I had the volunteers draw ten tickets without replacement and then I put them all back in the bag. Keep in mind there are 400 tickets in the bag, so it is almost like with replacement.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
AxiomOfChoice
AxiomOfChoice
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May 22nd, 2014 at 8:08:15 PM permalink
Awesome, thanks for doing the experiment.

This is all I really needed to see.
Wizard
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Wizard
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May 22nd, 2014 at 8:43:09 PM permalink
Quote: AxiomOfChoice

Awesome, thanks for doing the experiment.

This is all I really needed to see.



You're welcome. I'm still going to get a bigger sample size.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.

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