Roulette Promotion: How would you play?
How would you play this promotion? With how much profit you would stop betting?
Would you try to win big making a straight $50 bet to profit $1800?
Thanks!
Quote: endermikeAre you sure there are no other terms and conditions than the ones you stated? For example, there is no total play requirement (25% of total play or 100% of net losses whichever is less).
Yes I'm sure! I've read it all and there are no other terms and conditions. It's a risk free play.
Ok, sounds great. Then there are many options for you. Like you said a single straight bet would give you huge upside with no downside, but very low chance of profit. Ultimately, most any strategy's value (outside of entertainment and comps) is best expressed in IMO by the distribution of results. If this promo is online I would guess that other than cash value there is little value to this.Quote: LarryLafferYes I'm sure! I've read it all and there are no other terms and conditions. It's a risk free play.
Before I really get into the hairy parts of the math one other preliminary, is it single or double zero?
Quote: endermikeBefore I really get into the hairy parts of the math one other preliminary, is it single or double zero?
Single zero European Roulette.
The introduction of a fixed (rather small) bankroll adds an interesting twist, since we should now follow the Kelly Criterion, rather than just trying to maximize EV.
Quote: geoff$50 on black until it loses.
This is almost certainly not right. Variance is your friend.
My assumption was that you could play it in sessions and on the first loss take the rebate. If you only get to redeem it on a single session for a net $50 loss then almost all the bets have the same EV. It's not like a matchplay where you lose the coupon win or lose.Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThis is almost certainly not right. Variance is your friend.
Do you know what "en prison" rules they use?Quote: LarryLafferSingle zero European Roulette.
Quote: AxiomOfChoiceThere is a similar discussion about loss rebates going on in the DJ thread.
Can you send me the link to that thread?
Quote: geoffMy assumption was that you could play it in sessions and on the first loss take the rebate. If you only get to redeem it on a single session for a net $50 loss then almost all the bets have the same EV. It's not like a matchplay where you lose the coupon win or lose.
Reading the T&C I understand that they will refund my net losses up to $50. If I win $100 then lost $150 under the promotional period I will get a $50 refund.
Quote: endermikeDo you know what "en prison" rules they use?
They do not use la partage or en prison rules. If it's zero you lose.
Quote: geoffMy assumption was that you could play it in sessions and on the first loss take the rebate. If you only get to redeem it on a single session for a net $50 loss then almost all the bets have the same EV. It's not like a matchplay where you lose the coupon win or lose.
It is kind of like a matchplay.
Consider this:
Strategy 1: Bet $50 on black. Win $50 18 times out of 38. Lose $0 19 times out of 38. EV = $50 * 18 / 38.
Strategy 2: Bet $50 on 13. Win $50 * 35 1 time in 38. Lose $0 37 times. EV = $50 * 35 / 38.
The reason for the large discrepancy is that it is, in fact, a lot like a match play coupon.
I am not claiming that strategy 2 is optimal. The fact that you are not limited to 1 bet means that you can do better.
