Help me empathize with people who do sports betting

So first, the definition of empathy I'm using here is a neutral one, referring to one's ability to feel other's emotions. The difference between the neutral definition and the common definition is that one can be empathetic for manipulation and selfish purposes, for example.

I want to understand why people do sports betting, and not the game itself.

I don't know that much about sports betting, but from what I know the house edge is ENORMOUS in sports betting compared to common gambling such as video poker or table games. with a 10% house edge, you can play 10 times more baccarat (A no skill game), if skill isn't your thing.

And it seems that it's extremely difficult to impossible to AP sports betting as well (unless I'm missing something). Seems like unless you can rig the game, the house can always calculate with a more precise and accurate probability than you do.

So... sports betting does not make sense to me. It's not AP'able and people who play for entertainment have lots of other options with much smaller house edge.

Someone help me understand why people do this?

Quote: Neutrino

So first, the definition of empathy I'm using here is a neutral one, referring to one's ability to feel other's emotions. The difference between the neutral definition and the common definition is that one can be empathetic for manipulation and selfish purposes, for example.

I want to understand why people do sports betting, and not the game itself.

I don't know that much about sports betting, but from what I know the house edge is ENORMOUS in sports betting compared to common gambling such as video poker or table games. with a 10% house edge, you can play 10 times more baccarat (A no skill game), if skill isn't your thing.

And it seems that it's extremely difficult to impossible to AP sports betting as well (unless I'm missing something). Seems like unless you can rig the game, the house can always calculate with a more precise and accurate probability than you do.

So... sports betting does not make sense to me. It's not AP'able and people who play for entertainment have lots of other options with much smaller house edge.

Someone help me understand why people do this?

Why can't someone just enjoy doing something? Not everyone thinks nor cares about house edge.

Enjoy going bankrupt? Do you enjoy 6:5 blackjack as well?

Sports betting can be AP, but it's not like say Card Counting or Hold Carding. Sure the edge can be high, but if you bet 20 bucks and go get hammered and watch it in a sports book (like I do) then it's just fun.

Quote: geoff

Sports betting can be AP, but it's not like say Card Counting or Hold Carding. Sure the edge can be high, but if you bet 20 bucks and go get hammered and watch it in a sports book (like I do) then it's just fun.

I am legit interested in how to AP sports betting, not sarcastic.

I used to do it. There's a lot of research that can be done that does help, but there always seems to be one detail that can just ruin you. A key guy gets taken out right before the game etc. I've found that a lot of times, especially in basketball, it is utterly random. You're betting on who is going to show up that night records be damned.

I think for many people it's the realization that the score of a sport's match doesn't really matter in any meaningful sense, therefore they try to make it matter (or "make it interesting") by laying real stakes on it. But that's just a guess.

Me, I can't stand to see a game I bet anything significant on. Therefore I don't do sports betting.

Of course for many others it can be the mere thrill fo a bet on something that actually matters to them beyond the monetary stakes involved.

I think I'm starting to channel Sheldon Cooper ;)

Quote: Neutrino

I am legit interested in how to AP sports betting, not sarcastic.

You determine the probability of an event happening, and if the book offers you better than fair odds based on that probability, you bet.

The most AP type thing I did were on the hockey parlays. The site had an error. For instance, say there were 3 games that night where the OU were all 5. The Grand Salami(total goals combined games) was usually like 15.5 or 16. You can parlay all three unders with the salami under. Pretty massive if it hits.

They since fixed it.

Quote: Lemieux66

The most AP type thing I did were on the hockey parlays. The site had an error. For instance, say there were 3 games that night where the OU were all 5. The Grand Salami(total goals combined games) was usually like 15.5 or 16. You can parlay all three unders with the salami under. Pretty massive if it hits.

They since fixed it.

Um... don't they have the right to take your winnings back? Not sure on the law but I've heard blackjack stories where when the dealer messes up and you win, the house sends suits to you in a few min and say you owe the house for the dealer mistakes and demands you to pay back.

Quote: Neutrino

I am legit interested in how to AP sports betting, not sarcastic.

There's a couple ways, not including betting on a team you think has worse odds than they should. Since I'm not a frequent sports bettor the only one I've personally used is taking advantage of different odds. As an example here is the wikipedia entry example:

For example, Bookmaker A lists the Jets to be a 4-point favorite over the Bills. Bookmaker B has the Jets as just a 2-point favorite. The advantage player may bet the Bills +4 with Book A and then the Jets -2 with Book B. If the Jets win by 3, the advantage player collects on both bets. If the Jets win by either 2 or 4, the advantage player collects on one winning bet. And if the Jets win or lose by any other total, the two bets cancel out, leaving the advantage player to pay only the vigorish on the bets. Given typical 10-cent lines, a middle need only win 1 time in 21 to break even, which is a realistic goal - the middle is always a plausible result since it is based on the actual strength of the teams. Middling is an example of line arbitrage.

Quote: Neutrino

Um... don't they have the right to take your winnings back? Not sure on the law but I've heard blackjack stories where when the dealer messes up and you win, the house sends suits to you in a few min and say you owe the house for the dealer mistakes and demands you to pay back.

I made maybe 500 on that over a short period of time and they paid it off. They fixed it as soon as they realized it though.

Quote: Neutrino

Um... don't they have the right to take your winnings back? Not sure on the law but I've heard blackjack stories where when the dealer messes up and you win, the house sends suits to you in a few min and say you owe the house for the dealer mistakes and demands you to pay back.

The difference is that the house is attempting to get the money back from blackjack under the assumption of fraud. If you think there was no mistake you can refuse to give them the money or ask for proof.

With posted sports odds there is no law for them to claim the money back on. They wager was legally placed and while it isn't optimal for the book to post those odds it is what they posted them as. Unless they can show negligence or fraud then the results will stand.

Quote: Neutrino

So first, the definition of empathy I'm using here is a neutral one, referring to one's ability to feel other's emotions. The difference between the neutral definition and the common definition is that one can be empathetic for manipulation and selfish purposes, for example.

I want to understand why people do sports betting, and not the game itself.

I don't know that much about sports betting, but from what I know the house edge is ENORMOUS in sports betting compared to common gambling such as video poker or table games. with a 10% house edge, you can play 10 times more baccarat (A no skill game), if skill isn't your thing.

And it seems that it's extremely difficult to impossible to AP sports betting as well (unless I'm missing something). Seems like unless you can rig the game, the house can always calculate with a more precise and accurate probability than you do.

So... sports betting does not make sense to me. It's not AP'able and people who play for entertainment have lots of other options with much smaller house edge.

Someone help me understand why people do this?

In sports not only do you look at tthe house edge...but also the spread.

The spread is man mande

the spread can be "off"

the spread is not handed down from god as an absolute fact......its a number that the casino crunches.....just like we at home crunch

sometimes the casino is wrong..

Not the nicest title thread to get people to want to give you the info you want.... but....

This forum is littered with example that the Wizard has unearthed of advantage plays.....

Remember, in general, the bookies try and set lines so that half the money is bet on one team and half on the other.....
There are some 'handicappers' who believe they have information that either the general public ignores or doesn't have access to, thus a game which the bookies has as 'even', where you have to lay 11 to win 10, the handicapper might feel with his information that one team has a 60% chance of winning. Thus if he bets on that team he will win $100 6 times out of 10, while he will lose $110 4 times out of 10. If you are good enough to be right just 55% of the time on 'pick em' games, you can make a living at it.

When I am in vegas I usually make 5 or 10 $20 bets, knowing that my picks are random.... In EV I'm paying around $1 a bet..... Please, I can assure you, I won't go broke from my negative EV bets, and I need no empathy!

It is possible to make money as a sports handicapper..... but I'm guessing there are VERY FEW who can do it successfully.

Why do I enjoy sports betting? Let's say you want to bet $100 and no more. You aren't feeling slot machines or VP... and you want to make sure to take up at least two hours of your time. You can make a single bet that has an EV of -10% over the course of two hours... or bet $10 60-80 times at a blackjack table. First off, your expected loss on the sports bet is still higher if you can get good rules, but let's remember that playing blackjack with only 10 units is really risky.

Sports betting allows you a chance at a guaranteed two hours of entertainment. It's all about that guaranteed length of entertainment... and of course you've got the APers.

Quote: Neutrino

And it seems that it's extremely difficult to impossible to AP sports betting as well (unless I'm missing something). Seems like unless you can rig the game, the house can always calculate with a more precise and accurate probability than you do.

Some people bet on sports because ...

... they find advantage plays.
... they have inside knowledge which is not reflected in the given odds.
... they think they have a better understanding of the game than the given odds.
... they are financially dependend on the result of the game (not necessarily a player or team member).
... they like to trade in bets, i.e. speculating not on the team but on odds movements

... they like watching sport with running bets
... they like to gamble on something more interesting than a ball spinning in a pot or a stupid card game.

These are at least a ton of more reasons than playing Baccarat which you mentioned.

Quote: Neutrino

I want to understand why people do sports betting, and not the game itself.

Most people don't play professional football? I don't think this is what you're asking...

Quote:

I don't know that much about sports betting, but from what I know the house edge is ENORMOUS in sports betting compared to common gambling such as video poker or table games. with a 10% house edge, you can play 10 times more baccarat (A no skill game), if skill isn't your thing.

No. The 10% vigorish is not the house edge. Let's take a fair coin-flip example, 50-50. The 10% vig means the house charges you 110 to win 100. So you have a 50% chance of winning $100, 50% chance of losing $110, house edge is -10/220 = -4.545%.

And that's under the assumption that the odds actually are 50-50. You know they are, by definition, with a fair coin. But in sports or racing, you never know. That's one of the jobs of a handicapper or bookmaker -- to figure out what they think the odds are so they can offer a line like -110. But here's the fun part -- the real job of a bookmaker is to set the line so the same amount of action is on either side and they can take a middle, a risk-free position where the bets on one side (say, heads) are sufficient to pay off the bets on the other side (tails) regardless of who wins or loses, and the house keeps the vigorish regardless of which side actually wins. That's why lines move, to minimize the risk to the bookmaker -- and not because the line is "wrong".

So the way professional sports bettors make their money is by identifying situations where the line reflects an underlying incorrectness as to the probability of the event happening. That happens a lot when heavy money is on a popular team, even if the bettors are throwing money at it only because it's popular. Wiz has identified several common opportunities where bookmakers move the line away from the "correct" odds simply because the money forces it to move. If you were to find a coin-flip game where heads was being offered at -155 and tails was being offered at +135, you'd have the edge if you bet on tails if you know that tails is actually 50% likely. You don't know what the actual odds are for a sports game so you have to guess. If you think you know better than the bookmaker, you can profit.

Those lines, by the way, are what I just found for tomorrow's game between Cincinnati and Harvard in the NCAA tourney first round. I forgot to get a bet down on Harvard to win last week...

Quote: Neutrino

I am legit interested in how to AP sports betting, not sarcastic.

Successful sports bettors are few and far between. Tonight on CNBC we'll see a typical sports tout shooting his mouth off claiming he's got the inside scoop on a game. He is one big buffoon. Show airs at 10:00 eastern.

Back in the day I devoted alot of time sports betting. Primarily college basketball. Bought the Gold Sheet as well as other publications trying to find an edge. Impossible. I learned fairly quickly that there were way too many random events within a game that affected the point spread outcome. Basically your lucky if you win and unlucky if you lose.

Sports services (touts) would enter monitored handicapping competitions and most were lucky to get 50% winners against the spread. 54.4% is break even. They were just as bad on money line bets.

If you can get 57% winners in a decent sampling your a f****** genius or very lucky……probably the later.

If I was playing for fun and my options were

A) 4.5% house edge wager that takes 3 hrs to resolve
B) .5% house edge wager that takes 20 seconds to resolve

Which is going to cost me more over the course of 3 hrs of wagering?

This is a rhetorical question for the OP.

Quote: sabre

If I was playing for fun and my options were

A) 4.5% house edge wager that takes 3 hrs to resolve
B) .5% house edge wager that takes 20 seconds to resolve

Which is going to cost me more over the course of 3 hrs of wagering?

This is a rhetorical question for the OP.

Exactly. +1

There's a lot of highs and lows when it comes to sports betting. The randomness of a game can make you sick. Not worth it. "Fun bets" or otherwise for me.

Quote: Neutrino

I am legit interested in how to AP sports betting, not sarcastic.

Ok, I would guess I am one of the more active sports bettors around here. I hit Football (college and pro), Basketball (college and pro), Soccer (international mainly, but some pro leagues too), and miscellaneous props wherever value can be found (NASCAR, Olympics, entertainment, etc.). I am plus for my lifetime, although I don't have an exact idea of my ROI. (I would guess it has been around 1.05 on average over the last few years, after being about 1.01 for the few years before that and .97 for the few years before that).

Sports betting is most comparable to investing. This is the comparison which can demonstrate the potential value:
-There is some random event to be determined (price of derivative, amount of dividend)
-There is wealth of public information available about factor which will help determine the outcome
-Research pays
-Public sentiment can elicit over reaction by the majority of investors/players
-Some teams/stocks are frequently overvalued (creating structural value)

These help build to AP type opportunities. Some other things which help make sports potentially adv.
-Yes, the HE on a standard -110 bet is 4.5%, but by shopping for better prices or reduced juice offerings 2% HE is readily available.
-Prices move (during the run up to the game and now with live betting in game), sometime in predictable manners. This is where arbitrage can frequently enter the picture.
-Bookmakers list tons of games and props and you only need to find a few which are improperly priced to gain value while diversified (like in investing).
-Online books frequently offer bonuses in the form of cash, free bets, or free casino promotions. Frankly, I have hammered a few of these for great ROI.

Those are some thoughts for now. If you want more I can try to expand some more but don't expect much from me over the next few days. (God, how I love the next 100 hours)

As a follow-up, here's a good article on the psychology of betting on lines set by oddsmakers:
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-people-bet-on-the-favorite-even-when-the-spread-favors-the-underdog/

I am not as Sports Bettor.
But there are Professional Sports bettors out there that make serious money.
I have met a full time professional Sports betting guy that made a few millions in a period of a few years (not in the US).
There are many inefficients in the Sports betting market especially at small events. Say second division Soccer in England.
In bigger events, say Final in Soccer Champions League the markets are a lot more efiicient.
An there is also betfair with much smaller vig than regular Sports betting.