Poll

1 vote (4.76%)
3 votes (14.28%)
4 votes (19.04%)
7 votes (33.33%)
No votes (0%)
1 vote (4.76%)
1 vote (4.76%)
4 votes (19.04%)

21 members have voted

guido111
guido111
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August 27th, 2012 at 4:23:06 PM permalink
This is from Ask the Wizard #144
https://wizardofodds.com/ask-the-wizard/144/
The Wizard did not really show a math reason in his post, maybe the original post got changed.
To me it looks like some kind of Bold Play with odds that I have not looked into.

All comments and math welcomed.
The pass line and don't pass bets are for the come out roll.


My vote is just bet it all on the pass line.
Everyone will be betting and cheering with you, well at least they should, and you do have the 7 and 11 right in your corner on that first come out roll.

Of sourse, $2K for some is like $5 for others so maybe the title of this thread should be the best way to double any size bankroll.
RaleighCraps
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August 28th, 2012 at 5:58:18 AM permalink
Bet it all on DP on craps, BUT follow these steps for a sure fire winner.

- Find a virgin male to roll the dice, and after setting the point, do the following:
- throw the dice over the rail on his next throw.
- do not ask for the same dice.
- then roll the dice short. DO NOT hit the back wall.
- as a final guarantee, be sure to hit any stack of chips on the table.

All of these Advantage Play actions will give the player a virtual guaranteed winner.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
FleaStiff
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August 28th, 2012 at 6:13:52 AM permalink
I think the last thing the Wizard recommended was Bingo if your bankroll is less than ten grand.

Still not sure if this was a joke or not.
1arrowheaddr
1arrowheaddr
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August 28th, 2012 at 6:38:14 AM permalink
Sports betting. Find a "live dog" that is in the +100 to +120 range.
TinhornGambler
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August 28th, 2012 at 7:11:28 AM permalink
My approach would be to go to either the baccarat table or crap table and check the last 5 decisions. Determine whether the table is streaking, and which way …. or chopping.
Since there are several courses of action, bet against the trend, with the trend, preplanned or intuition.
However, I like the approach to bet with the trend and hope for the best.
Although there are no facts to back up it’s ability to be better than any other approach.

It’s a true guessing game.
FleaStiff
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August 28th, 2012 at 8:46:03 AM permalink
If you are talking about canines, ain't none of them live that long.
If you are talking about broads, I don't get your response at all.
Ayecarumba
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August 28th, 2012 at 11:37:16 AM permalink
Park your motorcycle at the Bellagio valet, but don't take off your helmet... hehe.

Actually, the Wizard's method is sound. I might update it to suggest heading to South Point, or even the M, instead of Hard Rock. The traffic is lighter heading south.
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
100xOdds
100xOdds
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August 28th, 2012 at 1:19:32 PM permalink
Quote: Ayecarumba

Park your motorcycle at the Bellagio valet, but don't take off your helmet... hehe.

Actually, the Wizard's method is sound. I might update it to suggest heading to South Point, or even the M, instead of Hard Rock. The traffic is lighter heading south.



i believe Freebet blackjack is now the best choice.

barring that, then bacarat as Banker with a 1% HE vs 1.36% for Dont Pass.

now what i dont understand is why isnt $285 Dont + $1710 odds (3/4/5x table) correct because it has an even lower house edge???
why bet it all on the dontpass w/o odds?


edit:
i just read the Wizards article.
What i suggested about dont pass + odds is what he recommended!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Yeah ha! i'm getting better at this :)
Craps is paradise (Pair of dice). Lets hear it for the SpeedCount Mathletes :)
guido111
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August 28th, 2012 at 1:42:54 PM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

now what i dont understand is why isnt $285 Dont + $1710 odds (3/4/5x table) correct because it has an even lower house edge???
why bet it all on the dontpass w/o odds?

I agree with you that one bet on Banker at Baccarat with a 50.68% winning probability to win 195% is still as good.
Some may not like the one bet takes all idea.

The original question did have a four hour time limit.

One bet on the don't pass wins with probability of 49.3%

Does it still win (double the bankroll) with a 49.3% or higher probability by the Wizard's method using Lay odds?

I would think that the pass line with odds would be the better bet vs. the don't pass with odds
to make taking max odds since my $285 flat bet has a way higher probability of winning on the cor
and not being in a hole as the same $285 bet on the don't pass on that 7 or 11 cor.
Right? A 1 in 3 chance that the first roll is not a point established.

Yes, The Wizard recommended it, but is there any proof it "is the best" strategy?
Is it the optimal strategy or are there others?

I guess I have some programming to do later.
24Bingo
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August 28th, 2012 at 1:44:16 PM permalink
I'd say my strategy would be similar to his, but slightly different. Assuming 3-4-5x odds, repeat these steps until you've won or are broke (you should probably work out the thresholds in advance):

-If 1/4 the distance to the goal, rounded up, is less than or equal to 1/7 your bankroll, rounded down, put the former amount on the don't and lay full odds.
-Otherwise if 1/7 the distance to the goal, rounded up, is less than or equal to 1/4 your bankroll, rounded down, but the former amount on the pass line and take full odds or as much as you can afford.
-Otherwise, if you have at least seven units, put 1/7 on the don't and lay full odds.
-If you have exactly six units, put one on the pass line and take full odds.
-If you have fewer than six, put everything on the don't.

The reason for betting the pass line when you're between the two thresholds is to have as many chances to clear the finish as possible. Remember, the more bets you make, the less likely you are to finish ahead, much less that far ahead. The reason for betting the pass line when you have exactly six units is to avoid the headaches of laying less than full odds at 3-4-5x tables without sacrificing the edge it gives you.

If the craps table's odds are better or worse than this, you should just keep in mind that you want every bet to be on either pass or don't (preferably don't), every bet to have a chance of clearing the finish line if at all possible (and if not, as large as possible), and every bet to be with full odds if possible.

It should be craps because, counting a "bet" as all the money staked, there pretty much isn't a better bet in the casino, even at 2x odds, let alone 3-4-5x. Blackjack might be an exception, if the rules are very good, but that relies on the player being able to double and split, and again, you should be wagering as much as possible.

Putting it all on banker is a good strategy if you're willing to walk away with $3900, but if you want that extra hundred, any strategy to get it will have a high enough chance of you losing your entire bankroll that, combined with the initial risk, you'd have been better off at the craps table.
The trick to poker is learning not to beat yourself up for your mistakes too much, and certainly not too little, but just the right amount.
taishan2112
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August 28th, 2012 at 2:30:55 PM permalink
You forgot to include making sure the waitress was there interrupting the shooter!
Ayecarumba
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August 28th, 2012 at 4:15:52 PM permalink
Quote: taishan2112

You forgot to include making sure the waitress was there interrupting the shooter!



And get everyone to put their hands IN!
Simplicity is the ultimate sophistication - Leonardo da Vinci
RaleighCraps
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August 28th, 2012 at 4:25:16 PM permalink
Good Points !
I also forgot to time it so that a stick change takes place right after the point is set.
Always borrow money from a pessimist; They don't expect to get paid back ! Be yourself and speak your thoughts. Those who matter won't mind, and those that mind, don't matter!
Mission146
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August 28th, 2012 at 5:44:38 PM permalink
Deleted, read the post I was responding to incorrectly.
https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/off-topic/gripes/11182-pet-peeves/120/#post815219
bigfoot66
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August 28th, 2012 at 5:49:52 PM permalink
And make sure someone buys in after the point is set but bore it is resolved.
Vote for Nobody 2020!
guido111
guido111
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August 30th, 2012 at 11:56:57 AM permalink
The best strategy looks to be, by votes from those that voted, the Banker bet in Baccarat.

In EZ Baccarat one would have about a 49.4% chance to perfectly double.
5% Banker commission paid in regular Bac still is 49.32295%
Player in Bac about 49.3%
Don't pass is 49.3%
Pass Line is 49.29%.

These are just too close to really pick one best strategy.

I simulated the Wizards don't pass method and got only 49.02% success at a perfect double. I need a larger sample size.
I still have not done the pass line with odds method yet.

At this point in time, if the best strategy is the one with the highest winning probability to double the bankroll,
they are all so very close.

I guess, pick your poison
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