Going to make one bet then leave the casino -> Baccarat

Oh my F'ing Lord... accidently Pressing the ESC key on my keyboard wipes out my entire msg?!
Hey Wiz, FIX THIS PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Anyway, casino is giving me a $130 bonus for thurs, 8/30 (and only that day). unfortunately, i'm going away for Labor day weekend. if i stay and play long, i'll get caught up in Holiday traffic. (folks like me who are taking Fri off.)

so my plan is to bet all $130 as Banker in e-Baccarat.
Win or lose, I leave.

That's the plan anyway.
But Knowing me, here's how it will probably play out:

My progression:
$130, 125, 125, 250, 599 then keep betting $599.

I stop on the 1st time I lose.

The reason for the $599 bet is that i will get 599 win + 599 original bet = 1198.
I'm playing it safe and assume i will get a W2-G for $1200 BEFORE the commision is taken.

Just want the feeling of maximizing my bet to just barely avoiding the W2-G.

How does my betting progression sound?

or should I go for Plan B or Plan C?
Plan B: Just keep the bet at $125 after the $130. Leave after 1st loss. If i'm at +$600 w/o a loss, bet $599.
Plan C: The original plan of just 1 bet then leave no matter what.

What do you say deciples of the Wizard?

Quote: 100xOdds

Oh my F'ing Lord... accidently Pressing the ESC key on my keyboard wipes out my entire msg?!
Hey Wiz, FIX THIS PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

always hit "control Z", that often will restore a wipe-out

Quote:

What do you say deciples of the Wizard?

$130 is not enough money to lose sleep over. I say try to progress it to the $599 bet if you are in the mood for a thrill.

Quote: odiousgambit

always hit "control Z", that often will restore a wipe-out

tried ctrl-z. didnt work :(
had to re-type the whole thing. and it was longer than what i re-wrote. :(

Quote:

$130 is not enough money to lose sleep over. I say try to progress it to the $599 bet if you are in the mood for a thrill.

especially if it's $130 free money.
$130,125,125,250,599 it is

i decided on the $250 route instead of same $125 because it's one less round i had to win to get to $599.

high variance is the best bet in a -EV game, right?
And less rounds spent in the -EV before reaching my goal, the better?

Quote: 100xOdds

Pressing the ESC key on my keyboard wipes out my entire msg?!
Hey Wiz, FIX THIS PLEASE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

There is no code in the entry form which wipes out your post if you press ESC, so if that happens it is a "feature" of the browser and/or operating system you are using. Using Chrome on Windows 7 does not have this problem; I'm not sure about other browser/operating system combinations.

Are you sure you are hitting escape? Could you have hit the <▓ (Web page back key)?

I hit that by accident a fair amount, because it is right next to my arrow keys.
If that is what you hit, you can just hit the page forward key to get back to your text. It will all be there.

whats are the odds of winning 3 in a row in Baccarat as Banker?

now i'm thinking 120,240,480, quit
so if i win 3 in a row, i'll have 960 - 5% commish

Quote: 100xOdds

whats are the odds of winning 3 in a row in Baccarat as Banker?

now i'm thinking 120,240,480, quit
so if i win 3 in a row, i'll have 960 - 5% commish

8 deck is about .506825^3 = 0.130188939 or 1 in 7.68

You win a $120 bet, you net $120-$6 = $114

Next bet $234
You win a $234 bet, you net $234-$11.70 (e-Bac machine)= $222.30

Next bet $456
You win after the 5% = $433.20

You walk with $889.50
about a 1 in 8 shot

Almost all good things come in 3s

added:
Once you win that first bet, your chance to win 3 in a row just increased.
1*.506825^2 = 0.256871 or about 1 in 3.89 (say 1 in 4)
Now you hit 2 in a row.
about a 50/50 chance to win 3 in a row needing only one more win

Quote: 7craps

8 deck is about .506825^3 = 0.130188939 or 1 in 7.68

You win a $120 bet, you net $120-$6 = $114

Next bet $234
You win a $234 bet, you net $234-$11.70 (e-Bac machine)= $222.30

Next bet $456
You win after the 5% = $433.20

You walk with $889.50
about a 1 in 8 shot

Almost all good things come in 3s

added:
Once you win that first bet, your chance to win 3 in a row just increased.
1*.506825^2 = 0.256871 or about 1 in 3.89 (say 1 in 4)
Now you hit 2 in a row.
about a 50/50 chance to win 3 in a row needing only one more win

wow.. as long as i survive the freeroll double up ($120 bonus the casino is giving me), i'm not behind?

so what are the odd of winning 4 in a row? (120,240,480,599 thus +1198)


edit:
never mind, i see the pattern. 2,4,8,16, 32,64,etc
so 4 in a row is 1 in 16

hm.. i think i'll stop at the 2nd double up and walk away with $480 - 5%

Quote: 100xOdds

The reason for the $599 bet is that i will get 599 win + 599 original bet = 1198.

I don't know if that will work, many baccarat tables require that you bet in $5 increments. Not much of a change, but still it might be worth noting.

Quote: 100xOdds

I'm playing it safe and assume i will get a W2-G for $1200 BEFORE the commision is taken.

I would think that any taxes, or assessment thereof, would be based on post-commission winnings. You didn't ever get the 5% vig that you paid for the win. If this is correct you should be able to bet up to $630 because you'd only "win" 598.50.

Quote: 100xOdds

Just want the feeling of maximizing my bet to just barely avoiding the W2-G.

I'm not sure how this would work, you'd probably be best to ask at the casino in question, but technically if you wager $599 and win 569.05 ($599 after 5% commission (also note the odd .05 amount which is why I doubt you can bet $599)) you'd really have won 1168.05 which puts you easily over the $600 limit. As a practical matter they may just work from the winnings - the original wager, but I'd ask and make sure before you start.

Good luck, hope you make a bundle.

update:

went to the casino today. all $125 bonus on Banker.
plan was to win once then quit.

but knowing myself, i'll probably do a 2nd double or nothing.
the tough question is: if i win the 2nd time, will i have the balls to do it again and risk ~$500?


well it never went that far.
Got a natural 9! Cha-ching!

i decided to leave the casino with that great feeling (and ~$250). it was worth more than the risk of winning $500.

Congrats, much better than expected!

A couple pulls on a $1.00 machine before leaving wouldn't have hurt, you were already ahead more than expected!

Hit and Run will only work so often. Just remember to save bus fare.