baccarat streaks?
No tie 34 hands
This is the most ive heard about / experienced my self for online casinos.
Whats the longest streak you have had with out a tie?
Also anyone have a simulation that has already been done and can email me? Need B/P/&T.
What you gonna do wit some simulation? Compare it to your later play and sue if the streak don't end when it "should"?Quote: Austin2011anyone have a simulation that has already been done and can email me? Need B/P/&T.
Anyone see anything online longer then this? If banker / player win around 45% of the time and tie is only suppose to win 9.5% of the time I am sure a streak has to be longer then 40 hands.
Online casinos. I do not play.Quote: Austin2011Also anyone have a simulation that has already been done and can email me? Need B/P/&T.
Some shuffle after every hand also.
Here is a simulation (do not know if this is what you want)
52 rounds without a tie win
After the 3rd column (The result column), is the P=score,B=score,Player 3 cards and Banker 3 cards
======= shoe 24 ======== 85 games =======
---------------------------- summary [85 games] ------------------
37 P; 46 B; 2 T;
----------------------------------------------------------------------------
24,1,B,1,9,J,A,-,2,7,-
24,2,T,6,6,3,3,-,A,9,6 <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
24,3,B,7,9,5,2,-,8,6,5
24,4,B,4,5,4,J,K,K,T,5
24,5,P,8,3,J,8,-,3,K,-
24,6,B,6,9,3,3,-,T,9,-
24,7,B,0,3,K,T,J,7,6,J
24,8,B,5,9,2,3,-,Q,9,-
24,9,P,9,7,3,J,6,J,T,7
24,10,P,8,0,7,A,-,J,J,-
24,11,B,0,3,9,A,Q,T,2,A
24,12,B,6,9,2,9,5,5,8,6
24,13,B,1,9,A,J,-,2,7,-
24,14,P,8,5,6,2,-,5,J,-
24,15,P,8,3,Q,8,-,3,T,-
24,16,B,2,8,A,A,-,2,6,-
24,17,P,4,3,2,2,Q,6,7,T
24,18,B,6,7,6,Q,-,7,Q,-
24,19,P,7,4,7,7,3,K,Q,4
24,20,B,7,8,3,4,-,T,8,-
24,21,P,5,2,K,Q,5,8,4,Q
24,22,B,6,8,8,8,-,8,J,-
24,23,P,8,1,6,2,-,J,A,-
24,24,B,2,9,2,K,-,3,6,-
24,25,P,7,6,8,9,-,6,Q,-
24,26,B,2,8,5,7,-,5,3,-
24,27,P,9,6,9,J,-,8,8,-
24,28,P,9,3,K,9,-,8,5,-
24,29,B,0,9,K,Q,-,3,6,-
24,30,B,3,4,3,A,9,5,9,-
24,31,B,0,7,A,Q,9,5,2,-
24,32,P,7,6,7,K,-,J,6,-
24,33,P,5,0,J,Q,5,Q,Q,Q
24,34,B,2,8,2,T,-,J,8,-
24,35,P,9,6,9,T,-,3,3,-
24,36,B,2,7,2,T,J,3,4,-
24,37,B,3,7,Q,K,3,9,8,-
24,38,B,7,9,7,T,-,T,A,8
24,39,B,2,7,2,Q,K,6,A,-
24,40,B,8,9,K,8,-,7,2,-
24,41,B,1,9,A,Q,-,A,8,-
24,42,B,4,6,4,J,J,8,4,4
24,43,B,1,7,7,4,Q,4,3,-
24,44,P,8,2,K,8,-,9,3,-
24,45,B,0,8,6,4,-,4,4,-
24,46,B,1,9,6,5,-,Q,9,-
24,47,P,6,0,6,T,-,4,9,7
24,48,P,8,3,T,5,3,2,K,A
24,49,B,1,6,T,T,A,T,6,-
24,50,B,1,6,3,K,8,K,6,-
24,51,P,4,2,A,2,A,6,6,Q
24,52,P,9,3,T,A,8,2,A,-
24,53,P,6,1,9,3,4,9,A,A
24,54,B,3,6,3,K,K,9,7,-
24,55,T,7,7,7,Q,-,7,J,- <<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<
24,56,B,1,8,2,9,-,4,4,-
24,57,P,8,5,5,3,-,Q,5,-
24,58,P,6,5,6,Q,-,6,5,4
24,59,B,4,7,4,J,K,2,J,5
24,60,P,7,0,7,T,-,6,4,Q
24,61,B,7,9,K,7,-,J,9,-
24,62,P,8,0,4,J,4,2,2,6
24,63,P,7,3,5,2,-,K,A,2
24,64,B,6,9,K,6,-,9,T,-
24,65,B,3,7,K,4,9,7,5,5
24,66,B,5,8,J,5,-,8,Q,-
24,67,B,1,6,5,6,Q,5,A,-
24,68,P,8,3,5,3,-,8,5,-
24,69,P,9,6,8,A,-,9,7,-
24,70,P,4,2,3,T,A,A,T,A
24,71,P,8,6,2,6,-,9,7,-
24,72,P,2,0,J,T,2,T,T,T
24,73,P,8,6,3,5,-,8,8,-
24,74,B,4,6,4,6,4,9,7,-
24,75,P,8,0,7,4,7,J,K,T
24,76,B,0,9,2,8,Q,8,2,9
24,77,B,6,7,8,3,5,5,5,7
24,78,P,7,1,J,7,-,7,4,K
24,79,P,7,3,6,A,-,3,A,9
24,80,B,4,8,A,3,-,T,8,-
24,81,P,9,7,5,8,6,K,J,7
24,82,B,1,9,7,4,-,T,9,-
24,83,B,2,9,2,J,-,K,9,-
24,84,B,0,4,Q,T,T,Q,4,-
24,85,P,7,6,7,Q,-,4,9,3
18, 29, 24, 20, 17, 43, 18, 22, 34, 35, 39, 36, 17, 22, 32, 38
These are my longest streaks so far as you can see 43 hands with out a tie online. You simulated 24 shoes and #24 was the worse one?
I do not need the exact results, but is there a way you can simulate 10,000 hands and see what the longest streak is?
Not only simulate but also calculate.Quote: Austin2011but is there a way you can simulate 10,000 hands and see what the longest streak is?
About 74 hands in a row on average in 10,000 hands
By calculation
trials:average length of longest run
78: 25.4
156: 32.3
312: 39.2
625: 46.1
1250: 53.0
2500: 60
5000: 66.9
10,000:73.9
An easy pattern develops,
As the number of trials doubles the average length of the longest run
increases by 7.
simulation results for 10,000 hands (ran it 100,000 times)
grouped data
items: 100,000
minimum value: 45.00
first quartile: 65.00
median: 72.00
third quartile: 81.00
maximum value: 193.00 <<<<<<<<<<<look how high it can go
mean value: 73.94 <<<<<<<<<<<<<< agrees
midrange: 119.00
range: 148.00
interquartile range: 16.00
mean abs deviation: 9.78
sample variance (n): 163.02
sample variance (n-1): 163.02
sample std dev (n): 12.77
sample std dev (n-1): 12.77
added: Banker and Player average longest runs (they are very close)
By calculation
trials:average length of longest run
Banker
78: 5.74
156: 6.75
312: 7.76
625: 8.78
1250: 9.80
2500: 10.82
5000: 11.84
10,000:12.86
Player
78: 5.54
156: 6.51
312: 7.48
625: 8.46
1250: 9.44
2500: 10.42
5000: 11.40
10,000:12.38
We can see the pattern.
As the number of trials doubles, the average length of the longest run increases by about 1
When the probability of success is around 50%, a close approximate formula is:
= LOG (# trials) / -LOG (probability)
The distribution for these runs has positive skew, so an average can be about 65% to 70% probability of being less and around a 30% to 35% chance of being higher
distribution from simulation for NO TIE in 10,000 hands
streak freq freq/100 streak cumulative
45 2 0.00% 45 2 0.00%
46 7 0.01% 46 9 0.01%
47 16 0.02% 47 25 0.02%
48 30 0.03% 48 55 0.06%
49 60 0.06% 49 115 0.12%
50 119 0.12% 50 234 0.23%
51 219 0.22% 51 453 0.45%
52 327 0.33% 52 780 0.78%
53 446 0.45% 53 1226 1.23%
54 641 0.64% 54 1867 1.87%
55 895 0.90% 55 2762 2.76%
56 1169 1.17% 56 3931 3.93%
57 1414 1.41% 57 5345 5.34%
58 1792 1.79% 58 7137 7.14%
59 1972 1.97% 59 9109 9.11%
60 2397 2.40% 60 11506 11.51%
61 2639 2.64% 61 14145 14.14%
62 2854 2.85% 62 16999 17.00%
63 3098 3.10% 63 20097 20.10%
64 3337 3.34% 64 23434 23.43%
65 3534 3.53% 65 26968 26.97%
66 3632 3.63% 66 30600 30.60%
67 3704 3.70% 67 34304 34.30%
68 3703 3.70% 68 38007 38.01%
69 3622 3.62% 69 41629 41.63%
70 3686 3.69% 70 45315 45.32%
71 3491 3.49% 71 48806 48.81%
72 3404 3.40% 72 52210 52.21%
73 3298 3.30% 73 55508 55.51%
74 3232 3.23% 74 58740 58.74%
75 3073 3.07% 75 61813 61.81%
76 2936 2.94% 76 64749 64.75%
77 2701 2.70% 77 67450 67.45%
78 2575 2.58% 78 70025 70.02%
79 2496 2.50% 79 72521 72.52%
80 2329 2.33% 80 74850 74.85%
81 2094 2.09% 81 76944 76.94%
82 1960 1.96% 82 78904 78.90%
83 1848 1.85% 83 80752 80.75%
84 1760 1.76% 84 82512 82.51%
85 1486 1.49% 85 83998 84.00%
86 1448 1.45% 86 85446 85.45%
87 1252 1.25% 87 86698 86.70%
88 1212 1.21% 88 87910 87.91%
89 1032 1.03% 89 88942 88.94%
90 952 0.95% 90 89894 89.89%
91 948 0.95% 91 90842 90.84%
92 826 0.83% 92 91668 91.67%
93 789 0.79% 93 92457 92.46%
94 678 0.68% 94 93135 93.14%
95 610 0.61% 95 93745 93.74%
96 568 0.57% 96 94313 94.31%
97 536 0.54% 97 94849 94.85%
98 477 0.48% 98 95326 95.33%
99 443 0.44% 99 95769 95.77%
100 420 0.42% 100 96189 96.19%
101 339 0.34% 101 96528 96.53%
102 328 0.33% 102 96856 96.86%
103 273 0.27% 103 97129 97.13%
104 277 0.28% 104 97406 97.41%
105 258 0.26% 105 97664 97.66%
106 202 0.20% 106 97866 97.87%
107 205 0.20% 107 98071 98.07%
108 171 0.17% 108 98242 98.24%
109 185 0.18% 109 98427 98.43%
110 130 0.13% 110 98557 98.56%
111 125 0.12% 111 98682 98.68%
112 129 0.13% 112 98811 98.81%
113 118 0.12% 113 98929 98.93%
114 113 0.11% 114 99042 99.04%
115 95 0.10% 115 99137 99.14%
116 89 0.09% 116 99226 99.23%
117 77 0.08% 117 99303 99.30%
118 64 0.06% 118 99367 99.37%
119 53 0.05% 119 99420 99.42%
120 56 0.06% 120 99476 99.48%
121 46 0.05% 121 99522 99.52%
122 50 0.05% 122 99572 99.57%
123 37 0.04% 123 99609 99.61%
124 42 0.04% 124 99651 99.65%
125 33 0.03% 125 99684 99.68%
126 33 0.03% 126 99717 99.72%
127 26 0.03% 127 99743 99.74%
128 13 0.01% 128 99756 99.76%
129 20 0.02% 129 99776 99.78%
130 21 0.02% 130 99797 99.80%
131 23 0.02% 131 99820 99.82%
132 24 0.02% 132 99844 99.84%
133 18 0.02% 133 99862 99.86%
134 10 0.01% 134 99872 99.87%
135 16 0.02% 135 99888 99.89%
136 9 0.01% 136 99897 99.90%
137 5 0.00% 137 99902 99.90%
138 12 0.01% 138 99914 99.91%
139 9 0.01% 139 99923 99.92%
140 9 0.01% 140 99932 99.93%
141 6 0.01% 141 99938 99.94%
142 10 0.01% 142 99948 99.95%
143 7 0.01% 143 99955 99.96%
144 4 0.00% 144 99959 99.96%
145 4 0.00% 145 99963 99.96%
146 3 0.00% 146 99966 99.97%
147 1 0.00% 147 99967 99.97%
148 4 0.00% 148 99971 99.97%
149 2 0.00% 149 99973 99.97%
150 2 0.00% 150 99975 99.98%
151 2 0.00% 151 99977 99.98%
152 1 0.00% 152 99978 99.98%
153 1 0.00% 153 99979 99.98%
154 5 0.00% 154 99984 99.98%
155 2 0.00% 155 99986 99.99%
156 1 0.00% 156 99987 99.99%
157 0 157 99987 99.99%
158 2 0.00% 158 99989 99.99%
159 3 0.00% 159 99992 99.99%
160 3 0.00% 160 99995 100.00%
161 0 161 99995 100.00%
162 0 162 99995 100.00%
163 0 163 99995 100.00%
164 1 0.00% 164 99996 100.00%
165 0 165 99996 100.00%
166 0 166 99996 100.00%
167 0 167 99996 100.00%
168 0 168 99996 100.00%
169 0 169 99996 100.00%
170 0 170 99996 100.00%
171 2 0.00% 171 99998 100.00%
172 0 172 99998 100.00%
173 0 173 99998 100.00%
174 0 174 99998 100.00%
175 0 175 99998 100.00%
176 0 176 99998 100.00%
177 0 177 99998 100.00%
178 1 0.00% 178 99999 100.00%
179 0 179 99999 100.00%
180 0 180 99999 100.00%
181 0 181 99999 100.00%
182 0 182 99999 100.00%
183 0 183 99999 100.00%
184 0 184 99999 100.00%
185 0 185 99999 100.00%
186 0 186 99999 100.00%
187 0 187 99999 100.00%
188 0 188 99999 100.00%
189 0 189 99999 100.00%
190 0 190 99999 100.00%
191 0 191 99999 100.00%
192 0 192 99999 100.00%
193 1 0.00% 193 100000 100.00%
Thanks
Austin
Quote: guido111
73 3298 3.30% 73 55508 55.51%
74 3232 3.23% 74 58740 58.74%
75 3073 3.07% 75 61813 61.81%
76 2936 2.94% 76 64749 64.75%
77 2701 2.70% 77 67450 67.45%
78 2575 2.58% 78 70025 70.02%
79 2496 2.50% 79 72521 72.52%
80 2329 2.33% 80 74850 74.85%
81 2094 2.09% 81 76944 76.94%
82 1960 1.96% 82 78904 78.90%
83 1848 1.85% 83 80752 80.75%
84 1760 1.76% 84 82512 82.51%
85 1486 1.49% 85 83998 84.00%
86 1448 1.45% 86 85446 85.45%
87 1252 1.25% 87 86698 86.70%
88 1212 1.21% 88 87910 87.91%
89 1032 1.03% 89 88942 88.94%
90 952 0.95% 90 89894 89.89%
91 948 0.95% 91 90842 90.84%
92 826 0.83% 92 91668 91.67%
93 789 0.79% 93 92457 92.46%
94 678 0.68% 94 93135 93.14%
95 610 0.61% 95 93745 93.74%
96 568 0.57% 96 94313 94.31%
97 536 0.54% 97 94849 94.85%
98 477 0.48% 98 95326 95.33%
99 443 0.44% 99 95769 95.77%
100 420 0.42% 100 96189 96.19%
101 339 0.34% 101 96528 96.53%
102 328 0.33% 102 96856 96.86%
103 273 0.27% 103 97129 97.13%
104 277 0.28% 104 97406 97.41%
105 258 0.26% 105 97664 97.66%
106 202 0.20% 106 97866 97.87%
107 205 0.20% 107 98071 98.07%
108 171 0.17% 108 98242 98.24%
109 185 0.18% 109 98427 98.43%
110 130 0.13% 110 98557 98.56%
111 125 0.12% 111 98682 98.68%
112 129 0.13% 112 98811 98.81%
113 118 0.12% 113 98929 98.93%
114 113 0.11% 114 99042 99.04%
115 95 0.10% 115 99137 99.14%
116 89 0.09% 116 99226 99.23%
117 77 0.08% 117 99303 99.30%
118 64 0.06% 118 99367 99.37%
119 53 0.05% 119 99420 99.42%
120 56 0.06% 120 99476 99.48%
121 46 0.05% 121 99522 99.52%
122 50 0.05% 122 99572 99.57%
123 37 0.04% 123 99609 99.61%
124 42 0.04% 124 99651 99.65%
125 33 0.03% 125 99684 99.68%
126 33 0.03% 126 99717 99.72%
127 26 0.03% 127 99743 99.74%
128 13 0.01% 128 99756 99.76%
129 20 0.02% 129 99776 99.78%
130 21 0.02% 130 99797 99.80%
131 23 0.02% 131 99820 99.82%
132 24 0.02% 132 99844 99.84%
133 18 0.02% 133 99862 99.86%
134 10 0.01% 134 99872 99.87%
135 16 0.02% 135 99888 99.89%
136 9 0.01% 136 99897 99.90%
137 5 0.00% 137 99902 99.90%
138 12 0.01% 138 99914 99.91%
139 9 0.01% 139 99923 99.92%
140 9 0.01% 140 99932 99.93%
141 6 0.01% 141 99938 99.94%
142 10 0.01% 142 99948 99.95%
143 7 0.01% 143 99955 99.96%
144 4 0.00% 144 99959 99.96%
145 4 0.00% 145 99963 99.96%
146 3 0.00% 146 99966 99.97%
147 1 0.00% 147 99967 99.97%
148 4 0.00% 148 99971 99.97%
149 2 0.00% 149 99973 99.97%
150 2 0.00% 150 99975 99.98%
151 2 0.00% 151 99977 99.98%
152 1 0.00% 152 99978 99.98%
153 1 0.00% 153 99979 99.98%
154 5 0.00% 154 99984 99.98%
155 2 0.00% 155 99986 99.99%
156 1 0.00% 156 99987 99.99%
157 0 157 99987 99.99%
158 2 0.00% 158 99989 99.99%
159 3 0.00% 159 99992 99.99%
160 3 0.00% 160 99995 100.00%
161 0 161 99995 100.00%
162 0 162 99995 100.00%
163 0 163 99995 100.00%
164 1 0.00% 164 99996 100.00%
165 0 165 99996 100.00%
166 0 166 99996 100.00%
167 0 167 99996 100.00%
168 0 168 99996 100.00%
169 0 169 99996 100.00%
170 0 170 99996 100.00%
171 2 0.00% 171 99998 100.00%
172 0 172 99998 100.00%
173 0 173 99998 100.00%
174 0 174 99998 100.00%
175 0 175 99998 100.00%
176 0 176 99998 100.00%
177 0 177 99998 100.00%
178 1 0.00% 178 99999 100.00%
179 0 179 99999 100.00%
180 0 180 99999 100.00%
181 0 181 99999 100.00%
182 0 182 99999 100.00%
183 0 183 99999 100.00%
184 0 184 99999 100.00%
185 0 185 99999 100.00%
186 0 186 99999 100.00%
187 0 187 99999 100.00%
188 0 188 99999 100.00%
189 0 189 99999 100.00%
190 0 190 99999 100.00%
191 0 191 99999 100.00%
192 0 192 99999 100.00%
193 1 0.00% 193 100000 100.00%
I see frequency as 1. That means there was a point over 10,000 hands where there was 193 hands with out a tie?
4,231 of the 100K sims had a no tie streak of 100 or higher.
Small success percentages can easily disappear for many. many trials.
The wait time can be longer than we think
