treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 7th, 2013 at 9:44:05 AM permalink
O.K., I'm not trolling. I've been accused of it several times....Just a few questions, if someone can humor me that would be great. I've read Ustons book years ago and have a fairly good understanding of favorable decks vs. unfavorable. It just seems to me that the advantage gained by skilled play is fairly small. A player can still take a serious butt kicking....e.g./i.e. sitting in the wrong chair, over and over again. Why wouldn't the dealer get the good cards....the random distribution of cards? It's my understanding that the primary advantage in is the double downs and splits. Maybe the 1% advantage over time will result in a positive expectation.

I joined the forum in desperation.....well semi-desperation. I'm 52 and have been totally wiped out after 27 year marriage ended in divorce and major losses in the horse racing business. Probably too much info.....anyway what are the chances of having significant success counting cards? I know everybody's talent level is different. I'm in the top 8% in the Luminosity test.....qualifer....for my age group.....not bragging, just setting a baseline. Is it realistic to grind out a living playing blackjack? I really don't want to be a porn slapper. Thanks in advance for any input.
Each day is better than the next
GH
GH
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February 7th, 2013 at 9:56:26 AM permalink
If your life depended on it, then AP is not for you. On the other hand, if all you're looking for is a steady source of pin money, then AP is worth it.
Doc
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:03:50 AM permalink
I've never tried card counting and certainly never considered it as an occupation. I just wanted to mention one advantage that you left out. If you and the dealer take turns getting blackjacks, you're losing one unit and winning 1.5. I think that's a key reason you want to bet higher on a good deck/shoe count, not just the doubles, splits, and dealer's forced hits.

I don't know whether this is a "good" option, but it seems a lot better than the other one you've mentioned on the strip. ;-)
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:07:57 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

I've never tried card counting and certainly never considered it as an occupation. I just wanted to mention one advantage that you left out. If you and the dealer take turns getting blackjacks, you're losing one unit and winning 1.5. I think that's a key reason you want to bet higher on a good deck/shoe count, not just the doubles, splits, and dealer's forced hits.

I don't know whether this is a "good" option, but it seems a lot better than the other one you've mentioned on the strip. ;-)

Touche'
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GH
GH
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:08:00 AM permalink
Quote: Doc

I don't know whether this is a "good" option, but it seems a lot better than the other one you've mentioned on the strip. ;-)


I don't know what the slappers make but I have neighbors who swear they make $400+ profit a day selling water.
kewlj
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:09:51 AM permalink
Treetopbuddy, AP blackjack is still possible. It is NOT a thing of the past as many people think. Granted it is more difficult than past era's and you have to put in more effort, but it is definitely still do-able. BUT, you are not going to get rich doing so. I am in my 10th year of supporting myself from AP, mostly BJ play. I make a decent, comfortable living, upper 5 figures from BJ play, a little more from other areas of AP. But the thing is, because it is much more difficult than years gone by, you have to work and put more time in, many players find it not worth their time and move on to other activities, either AP or other fields that yield better results. If you choose to be a BJ AP specialist, it kind of has to be more than just about the money and making a living. It almost has to be a passion, because it is not as easy, nor glamorous, as portrayed.

I will PM you later today when I have more time with a couple tips and thoughts that I would rather not make public.
GH
GH
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:15:01 AM permalink
@kewlj is right. You've got to be sooo dedicated that you are willing to setup your own "Blackjack Lab" at home. Be willing to go on spying expeditions to casinos, copy, duplicate and figure out why certain casinos do their house shuffles the way they do. Learn to scare off other players that piss you off, without causing a commotion. And most importantly, learn self control. I will deliberately shred free bet coupons I get from certain casinos, if I suspect "a trap."
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:15:07 AM permalink
Quote: GH

I don't know what the slappers make but I have neighbors who swear they make $400+ profit a day selling water.

400 a day tax free? What, 1200 a day selling ice water during the summer months? What are the franchise fees? :-)
Each day is better than the next
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:17:07 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

Treetopbuddy, AP blackjack is still possible. It is NOT a thing of the past as many people think. Granted it is more difficult than past era's and you have to put in more effort, but it is definitely still do-able. BUT, you are not going to get rich doing so. I am in my 10th year of supporting myself from AP, mostly BJ play. I make a decent, comfortable living, upper 5 figures from BJ play, a little more from other areas of AP. But the thing is, because it is much more difficult than years gone by, you have to work and put more time in, many players find it not worth their time and move on to other activities, either AP or other fields that yield better results. If you choose to be a BJ AP specialist, it kind of has to be more than just about the money and making a living. It almost has to be a passion, because it is not as easy, nor glamorous, as portrayed.

I will PM you later today when I have more time with a couple tips and thoughts that I would rather not make public.

Thanks for input
Each day is better than the next
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:21:02 AM permalink
Quote: GH

@kewlj is right. You've got to be sooo dedicated that you are willing to setup your own "Blackjack Lab" at home. Be willing to go on spying expeditions to casinos, copy, duplicate and figure out why certain casinos do their house shuffles the way they do. Learn to scare off other players that piss you off, without causing a commotion. And most importantly, learn self control. I will deliberately shred free bet coupons I get from certain casinos, if I suspect "a trap."

interesting....if not AP blackjack or poker.....anything?
Each day is better than the next
GH
GH
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:35:49 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

interesting....if not AP blackjack or poker.....anything?


Well, you can always become a dealer and average about $130 a day (with tips).
GH
GH
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:38:45 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

400 a day tax free? What, 1200 a day selling ice water during the summer months? What are the franchise fees? :-)


I also got a neighbor who averages about $100 a day as a curbside fortune teller.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:44:27 AM permalink
Quote: GH

I also got a neighbor who averages about $100 a day as a curbside fortune teller.

OK....sell water and tell fortunes....400 plus 100= 500x365=182,500/yr tax free....not interested....make triple that paling the Wheel of Fortune
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RogerKint
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:45:35 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

It just seems to me that the advantage gained by skilled play is fairly small. .



It is and your bankroll sounds less than healthy. AP can be stressful. A job as a Walmart Greeter seems perfect for you. Meeting/getting to know various types of people may help you forget about your past troubles in no time.
100% risk of ruin
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:49:50 AM permalink
Quote: RogerKint

It is and your bankroll sounds less than healthy. AP can be stressful. A job as a Walmart Greeter seems perfect for you. Meeting/talking to/getting to know various types of people may help you forget about your past troubles in no time.

No, still have significant bankroll.....must admit the Walmart idea is solid ....thanks for suggestion
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TIMSPEED
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February 7th, 2013 at 10:59:34 AM permalink
Get ahold of as many IT books as you can...
Pass the A+ test at minimum, NET+ wouldn't be bad either, try to go for CCNA/CCNP
Look for IT jobs...should START OUT at $15 per hour, and if you've got all those tests passed, then IT work should be easy for you...
If you wanna seriously do AP, I'd say move to Reno, as it seems Vegas casinos dont even come close to the amount of cashback/comps...
Fwiw, if I only had a 1% edge on blackjack, I'd rather give up 1% and play craps for fun...i hate bj THAT much...
Gambling calls to me...like this ~> http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Nap37mNSmQ
GH
GH
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February 7th, 2013 at 12:09:09 PM permalink
Quote: TIMSPEED

If you wanna seriously do AP, I'd say move to Reno, as it seems Vegas casinos dont even come close to the amount of cashback/comps...


I actually recommended to the OP that he try Tunica, because it's like shooting fish in a barrel down there.
sodawater
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February 7th, 2013 at 1:00:16 PM permalink
There are a lot of benefits to the deck being rich in tens and aces for the player vs. the dealer.

1. Dealer BJs pay 1:1, player BJs pay 3:2.

2. Player may split, dealer cannot.

3. Player may double, dealer cannot.

4. Dealer must draw to 17, player may stand under 17.

5. Rich decks result in fewer player busts and more pushes 21 and under. Dealer wins all busts and all "pushes" 22 and over.
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 7th, 2013 at 1:02:44 PM permalink
Quote: GH

I actually recommended to the OP that he try Tunica, because it's like shooting fish in a barrel down there.

yeah, but you have to listen to all the hick accents....a major problem for me
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thecesspit
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February 7th, 2013 at 2:32:23 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

Maybe the 1% advantage over time will result in a positive expectation.



Nope 1% advantage IS a positive expectation. But on -expectation-. Reality may vary wildly over the short term. And the medium, too.
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
MonkeyMonkey
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February 8th, 2013 at 2:08:14 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

yeah, but you have to listen to all the hick accents....a major problem for me



Really? Why is that, are you that intolerant of other people?
1BB
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February 8th, 2013 at 3:49:16 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

yeah, but you have to listen to all the hick accents....a major problem for me



You probably wouldn't like my Boston/New york accent. I get razzed a lot in the especially in the south. It's all in good fun.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 8th, 2013 at 5:20:26 AM permalink
Quote: MonkeyMonkey

Really? Why is that, are you that intolerant of other people?

Yeah, I can be intolerant of other people, why?
Each day is better than the next
Boney526
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February 8th, 2013 at 6:51:06 AM permalink
Quote: TIMSPEED

Get ahold of as many IT books as you can...
Pass the A+ test at minimum, NET+ wouldn't be bad either, try to go for CCNA/CCNP
Look for IT jobs...should START OUT at $15 per hour, and if you've got all those tests passed, then IT work should be easy for you...
If you wanna seriously do AP, I'd say move to Reno, as it seems Vegas casinos dont even come close to the amount of cashback/comps...
Fwiw, if I only had a 1% edge on blackjack, I'd rather give up 1% and play craps for fun...i hate bj THAT much...



Really? If I had a 1% edge and a BR that could sustain it... assuming no heat I would play for like 25 hours a week and make my living. Assuming no heat - which I felt was implied for some reason.

But I don't count cards b/c I don't wanna get barred, BR purposes, etc. I'd probably do it if I found a 2 dollar minimum game but yeah that's not happening, and it'd just be for fun cuz I'd be making something like upwards of 2 dollars an hour.
AcesAndEights
AcesAndEights
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February 8th, 2013 at 10:57:19 AM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy


Quote: RogerKint

It is and your bankroll sounds less than healthy. AP can be stressful. A job as a Walmart Greeter seems perfect for you. Meeting/talking to/getting to know various types of people may help you forget about your past troubles in no time.


No, still have significant bankroll.....must admit the Walmart idea is solid ....thanks for suggestion


Bankroll is an important point that hasn't gotten enough time on this thread. You need to size your bets appropriately for your bankroll...if you don't, it's incredibly likely you will bust out. If your bankroll is too small and you DO size your bets appropriately, you will be "working" for minuscule wages.
"So drink gamble eat f***, because one day you will be dust." -ontariodealer
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 8th, 2013 at 12:18:39 PM permalink
Quote: AcesAndEights

Bankroll is an important point that hasn't gotten enough time on this thread. You need to size your bets appropriately for your bankroll...if you don't, it's incredibly likely you will bust out. If your bankroll is too small and you DO size your bets appropriately, you will be "working" for minuscule wages.

point well taken AcesAnd Eights
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treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 8th, 2013 at 12:31:09 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

point well taken AcesAnd Eights

OK, bankroll 50,000. Session buy in 1% of bankroll=5,000. Off the top bet 50.00? Raise bet as deck becomes move favorable up to 8x's original off the top bet? Am I close?
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Ibeatyouraces
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February 8th, 2013 at 1:29:38 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
1BB
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February 8th, 2013 at 1:30:26 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

OK, bankroll 50,000. Session buy in 1% of bankroll=5,000. Off the top bet 50.00? Raise bet as deck becomes move favorable up to 8x's original off the top bet? Am I close?



I like 40 times my max bet. This can be adjusted for rules, number of players and wonging which means you may be able to get away with less in very favorable conditions. If you are playing shoe games double that spread. Just cut your base bet in half.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
thecesspit
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February 8th, 2013 at 1:56:43 PM permalink
Quote: treetopbuddy

OK, bankroll 50,000. Session buy in 1% of bankroll=5,000. Off the top bet 50.00? Raise bet as deck becomes move favorable up to 8x's original off the top bet? Am I close?



1% of 50,000 is $500. I suspect a typo somewhere :)
"Then you can admire the real gambler, who has neither eaten, slept, thought nor lived, he has so smarted under the scourge of his martingale, so suffered on the rack of his desire for a coup at trente-et-quarante" - Honore de Balzac, 1829
1BB
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February 8th, 2013 at 2:07:34 PM permalink
Quote: thecesspit

1% of 50,000 is $500. I suspect a typo somewhere :)



I caught that as well. It looks like he meant 10% of his bankroll for the session and 1% of that for his base bet.
Many people, especially ignorant people, want to punish you for speaking the truth. - Mahatma Ghandi
Keyser
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February 8th, 2013 at 5:40:36 PM permalink
You can't win much counting cards. Basically, you're going to give your edge away by tipping. There are much better options.
Ibeatyouraces
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February 8th, 2013 at 5:46:24 PM permalink
deleted
DUHHIIIIIIIII HEARD THAT!
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 8th, 2013 at 5:47:07 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

You can't win much counting cards. Basically, you're going to give your edge away by tipping. There are much better options.

Your right about the tipping.....I always feel compelled to tip even when I'm losing. "There are much better options"......poker, porn slapping......don't say dice control or we will have three separate wars going on simultaneously.
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kewlj
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February 8th, 2013 at 5:55:48 PM permalink
Quote: Keyser

You can't win much counting cards. Basically, you're going to give your edge away by tipping. There are much better options.



'tipping' ??? I am not familiar with this terms in relationship to blackjack play. Someone please explain? PGDan, maybe you could explain? .....oh wait. I remember now. The notion where overpaid and often unfriendly dealers think I should pay them for the privilege of playing at their table. After all, 'we' are in this together. I have risked my funds and they have risked....ah..well nothing actually. But that doesn't stop them from taking credit for my play, my work, my good decisions and wanting me to share my good fortune with them. And it only seems fair, as those times 'we' are not fortunate enough to do to well, the dealers are always just as eager to tip me, or give me some sort of loss rebate....NOT!
treetopbuddy
treetopbuddy
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February 8th, 2013 at 6:01:09 PM permalink
Quote: kewlj

'tipping' ??? I am not familiar with this terms in relationship to blackjack play. Someone please explain? PGDan, maybe you could explain? .....oh wait. I remember now. The notion where overpaid and often unfriendly dealers think I should pay them for the privilege of playing at their table. After all, 'we' are in this together. I have risked my funds and they have risked....ah..well nothing actually. But that doesn't stop them from taking credit for my play, my work, my good decisions and wanting me to share my good fortune with them. And it only seems fair, as those times 'we' are not fortunate enough to do to well, the dealers are always just as eager to tip me, or give me some sort of loss rebate.

I've lost tens of thousands through the years playing blackjack......seems to me to be an unbeatable game. Just makes me feel better when I tip.....maybe I'll stop tipping and my luck will change.
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kewlj
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February 8th, 2013 at 6:09:23 PM permalink
duplicate
rainman
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February 8th, 2013 at 6:12:51 PM permalink
Dang!!! That kewlj is a cheapskate. I always leave my dealers with two tips "save your money" and "eat your vegetables"
MonkeyMonkey
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February 9th, 2013 at 2:46:36 AM permalink
Quote: kewlj

'tipping' ??? I am not familiar with this terms in relationship to blackjack play. Someone please explain?



It's what 10% or so of the players do so the other 90% can have a place to play with dealers and not have to play video blackjack.
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