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NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
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July 16th, 2015 at 5:04:23 AM permalink
Quote: Ahigh

The Wynn is just making a ton of changes. Maybe they are just doing this to get people talking about what they are doing.

There were black curtains and "under construction" all over the place there.

Something is going on...



Today's stupid follow up question:

Has the Encore(next door to Wynn, also owned by Wynn) property also gone to 2 X odds in craps?
NokTang
NokTang
Joined: Aug 15, 2011
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July 16th, 2015 at 5:06:09 AM permalink
Quote: 100xOdds

wsop is over for now.
final 9 have been determined.

heard #1 stack has 60M chips. #2 stack has 30M.
#1 doesn't even need to show up day1 of the final table and he's virtually guaranteed 3rd place.

and what does wsop have to do w/the wynn?
how many wsop players are staying at the wynn??



Should be on the wsop site. I'll go look now. Just curious however, the #1 stack player doesn't have to show up the first day? Are you sure about that? Thanks in advance.
ThatDonGuy
ThatDonGuy
Joined: Jun 22, 2011
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July 16th, 2015 at 6:16:10 AM permalink
Quote: NokTang

Should be on the wsop site. I'll go look now. Just curious however, the #1 stack player doesn't have to show up the first day? Are you sure about that? Thanks in advance.


I assume 100xOdds means that he could fold every hand on the first day (which I assume is how it would be treated - antes and blinds would be taken from his stack as if he was there - if he wasn't actually there) and still end up in the final three.

The "November Nine", with chip counts, are listed here.
Wizard
Administrator
Wizard
Joined: Oct 14, 2009
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July 16th, 2015 at 8:57:33 AM permalink
Quote: mustangsally

i knew you would come back with that
of course the combined house edge will be lower
exactly what you want to hear
but that is over a larger average bet



I think we both agree with the math of this. How could we not?

Our point of departure seems to be whether it is good advice to recreational players to take full odds. I say it is, assuming the player is comfortable with the risk. If somebody is going to gamble anyway, then he should at least lose as little as possible.
It's not whether you win or lose; it's whether or not you had a good bet.
ams288
ams288
Joined: Sep 26, 2012
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July 16th, 2015 at 9:09:08 AM permalink
Quote: Boz

Maybe Steve found out "Popeye" isn't worth what he paid for it.



I could have told him that.

I saw that thing on a trip last year. Took a picture of it. Didn't think much of it. Just another random thing in Vegas to look at for 30 seconds before moving on down the hallway.

Then a few weeks later I see an article saying he paid $28 million for it. Blew my mind. What a waste of money.
The geniuses who thought HRC was running a child sex ring out of the basement of a pizza shop just can't connect the dots on all this trump-Russia stuff....
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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July 16th, 2015 at 9:17:45 AM permalink
Quote: ams288

I could have told him that.

I saw that thing on a trip last year. Took a picture of it. Didn't think much of it. Just another random thing in Vegas to look at for 30 seconds before moving on down the hallway.

Then a few weeks later I see an article saying he paid $28 million for it. Blew my mind. What a waste of money.


Yeah, but $28 million to him is a ten cents to us.
"And that's the bottom lineeeee, cuz Stone Cold said so!"
MathExtremist
MathExtremist
Joined: Aug 31, 2010
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July 16th, 2015 at 9:49:39 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Our point of departure seems to be whether it is good advice to recreational players to take full odds. I say it is, assuming the player is comfortable with the risk. If somebody is going to gamble anyway, then he should at least lose as little as possible.

That's where the line gets blurry. These two concepts are not necessarily the same.

$10 flat + 3/4/5x odds and $10 flat + 2x odds have the same expected loss, so "losing as little as possible" isn't the distinction. Between those two choices, the distinction is in the variance. If the table is a $10 minimum, there's nothing you can do to minimize the loss beyond making those $10 bets.

I think the example you mean to use is something like $50 line bets with 2x odds ($150 each point) vs. $30 line bets with 3/4/5x odds ($120, $150, $180). That's reasonably close in terms of overall action -- but it's also not a typical line of reasoning. Virtually nobody comes to the table and says "I want to wager an expected $150 per line bet, how can I minimize my loss as a percentage?" Usually it's "I'm playing the table minimum so what odds can I take?" If you're at a $10 table and making minimum bets, you can't go down to $5+3/4/5x just to shift your action toward odds.

I can see that being more of a consideration if the table were $5+20x, and I recall there are several tables like that off the strip (Stations, I think). For someone who really wants to grind at a dice table, maybe that's worth the drive. But if you're staying at the Wynn already, chances are you're not the demographic to get in a cab and go to Boulder Station to shoot dice.

Maybe the suggestion "make one $10 bet with 3/4/5x odds instead of two $10 bets with 2x odds" has merit -- it does cut the theoretical loss in half -- but on the other hand if it's not as entertaining then overall it's a worse strategy for the recreational player. The cost of another $10 line bet is only 14 cents. That's easily justified if you have a better time playing the game.

I used to think that minimizing theo was of paramount importance. Now that I'm older (and have more money) I've changed my tune. I think that *understanding* theo and accounting for it is more appropriate, but "accounting for" is not always the same as "minimizing". I'm willing to play craps on the Strip because I would rather be on the Strip around well-heeled nonsmokers than in a smoky locals joint 20 minutes away by cab. I know the theoretical cost of the higher bets (usually $15 minimums these days) and I'm willing to pay it.

Perhaps that calculus isn't as apropos for locals, but for us tourists (and/or ex-locals) who don't have ready access to dice tables, and who have to spend hundreds of dollars just to get to and stay in Las Vegas, fretting over an extra $30 in expected loss just isn't worth it. That's about the cost of two hundred (200) $10 line bets, about six hours at the table. I'll start to care again when the theo gets into the 3 or 4 figure range, but I don't know that I've *ever* had a single craps session with a 3 or 4 figure expected loss. I just don't bet that big. Green chips are my limit right now. Maybe after I have an 8-figure net worth I'll step up to black chips but I'm not there yet.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Zcore13
Zcore13
Joined: Nov 30, 2009
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July 16th, 2015 at 9:58:05 AM permalink
Quote: Ibeatyouraces

Yeah, but $28 million to him is a ten cents to us.



Just what 50 cent thought. Made close to 200 million in the last 10 years and wants to file bankruptcy now for a 5 million dollar judgement.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
Ibeatyouraces
Ibeatyouraces
Joined: Jan 12, 2010
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July 16th, 2015 at 9:59:41 AM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

Just what 50 cent thought. Made close to 200 million in the last 10 years and wants to file bankruptcy now for a 5 million dollar judgement.

ZCore13


Probably smoked it all away.
"And that's the bottom lineeeee, cuz Stone Cold said so!"
mustangsally
mustangsally
Joined: Mar 29, 2011
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July 16th, 2015 at 10:03:50 AM permalink
Quote: Wizard

Our point of departure seems to be whether it is good advice to recreational players to take full odds. I say it is, assuming the player is comfortable with the risk.

how do they know what the risk is?
they are just to trust the advice when given?

I am guessing by
guessing
or just thinking about it
or
not thinking about it

you telling a player to always bet max odds as long as they are comfor-table, your opinion,
sounds like bad advice to that player
when they are actually losing over X number of bets
Quote: Wizard

If somebody is going to gamble anyway, then he should at least lose as little as possible.

of course
but

the public perception for the game of craps is that to win
it is a skill choosing the right bets to make at the right time
one can bet with or against the house is the cry
(unlike BJ where one can only bet that the player will win and not the house)

in other words
one will lose when they make the wrong bet (could be a right bet)
bet selection and money management is the public perception
to losing less or winning more while playing the game of craps

there is too much experience on the public side to change that

as i pointed out earlier, 345X odds does not make a player's RoR higher under equal betting situations
compared to a Full2X odds player

even tho public belief is
that it does


getting back to the combined house edge you asked about

why do you say it is important to have that lower (max odds take) when it does nothing to change the expected loss when the flat bets are the same?
or do you not say that?
I Heart Vi Hart

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