777
777
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August 22nd, 2016 at 6:22:57 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: 777

Quote: Paigowdan

Forgive me for chiming in, but true:
Forty or more cash-paying installs....



At $1000/month x 12 months x 40 installs = $480,000/year. That's a success for sure.

That's a huge success. I think you can set the bar far lower. I think if you've doubled your total go-to-market investment -- which includes math, patents, layouts, marketing, regulatory, trade shows, whatever -- then you're successful. Most people in the "independent casino game design" business never come close to recouping their investment at all, no matter how small it is. I'm one of the lucky few, but that's with a strong emphasis on "few".

This is not an industry you should get into if you're looking for a likely return on your investment. There's a reason that there are no financially-healthy, independent table game companies anymore. All of the companies that have any meaningful table game revenue are also doing something else, whether it's progressive systems, tracking systems, slot games, or other equipment. That should tell you something. For example, Galaxy is starting to turn things around by focusing on the upcharge for electronic systems:
Quote: GLXZ 2015 Annual Report

Our Enhanced Table Systems permit us the opportunity to significantly increase the amount of recurring revenue we receive from each table game placement. Accordingly, our goal is to concentrate on installing new game placements using one or more of our Enhanced Table Systems and to convert our existing Proprietary Table Game placements that currently do not incorporate our Enhanced Table Systems.



Assume the total initial investment is $10,000 to $50,000 (R&D, lawyer, marketing & promotion …)

Let’s consider initial years of patent life are non-incoming producing due to field trial period, and where lots of praying, and knock-on-doors are conducted, and for this reason, assume the useful life a patent is 12-15 years.

Subsequent expenses for trade shows and other marketing & promotions during the 12-15 years useful life of a patent is $100,000

Let’s say annual income is $240,000/year based on 40 installs.

The total net income for a successful game is about $2.7 to $3.5 million from an initial investment of $10,000 to $50,000. Not bad.
777
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August 22nd, 2016 at 7:26:04 AM permalink
Quote: Paradigm

I disagree with the statement that there are no financially healthy, independent table game companies. Galaxy gets the vast majority of their income (>90%) from Proprietary Table Game content as opposed to Enhanced Table Systems.

In looking at Galaxy's 2015 Q2 actuals, they had 4,638 Proprietary Table Game Units in Service and only 141 Enhanced Table Systems/e-Table Units in Service. That ratio has not changed dramatically over the last 12 months.

Based on Galaxy's latest earnings release on Monday, if anyone doesn't considered Galaxy financially healthy now, just wait 30 months and see what they look like as of 12/31/18!



What is Enhance Table Systems? My guess is side bets such as Lucky Ladies, and Small-Tall-All considered as enhanced table system. Am I correct?

If many their proprietary table games will face patent expirations within the next few years, then their projected earning in 30 months could be greatly deteriorate. Another thing to consider is the competition landscape of the next 30 months.
UCivan
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August 22nd, 2016 at 10:08:07 AM permalink
Quote: 777



Assume the total initial investment is $10,000 to $50,000 (R&D, lawyer, marketing & promotion …)

Let’s consider initial years of patent life are non-incoming producing due to field trial period, and where lots of praying, and knock-on-doors are conducted, and for this reason, assume the useful life a patent is 12-15 years.

Subsequent expenses for trade shows and other marketing & promotions during the 12-15 years useful life of a patent is $100,000

Let’s say annual income is $240,000/year based on 40 installs.

The total net income for a successful game is about $2.7 to $3.5 million from an initial investment of $10,000 to $50,000. Not bad.

These numbers are better estimates. However to achieve an "average" of 40 installs takes a good distributor. I heard High Card Flush took 6 years to reach over 100 tables. For the inventor, getting 15%-20% from the distributor is realistic. Thus, the returns on inventor's $10-$50K investment would be practically about $400,000 to $700,000, still descent. On the other hand, perhaps remaining independent has a better return and FUN.
DJTeddyBear
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August 22nd, 2016 at 11:32:15 AM permalink
Quote: UCivan

On the other hand, perhaps remaining independent has a better return and FUN.

Absolutely better return, but also bigger risks, costs and challenges.

And will an independent really have the right industry contacts to even attempt it? I know I don't. Nor time or money. That's why I signed with Galaxy.
I invented a few casino games. Info: http://www.DaveMillerGaming.com/ ————————————————————————————————————— Superstitions are silly, childish, irrational rituals, born out of fear of the unknown. But how much does it cost to knock on wood? 😁
MathExtremist
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August 22nd, 2016 at 12:32:55 PM permalink
Quote: 777

Quote: MathExtremist

Quote: 777

Quote: Paigowdan

Forgive me for chiming in, but true:
Forty or more cash-paying installs....



At $1000/month x 12 months x 40 installs = $480,000/year. That's a success for sure.

That's a huge success. I think you can set the bar far lower. I think if you've doubled your total go-to-market investment -- which includes math, patents, layouts, marketing, regulatory, trade shows, whatever -- then you're successful. Most people in the "independent casino game design" business never come close to recouping their investment at all, no matter how small it is. I'm one of the lucky few, but that's with a strong emphasis on "few".

This is not an industry you should get into if you're looking for a likely return on your investment. There's a reason that there are no financially-healthy, independent table game companies anymore. All of the companies that have any meaningful table game revenue are also doing something else, whether it's progressive systems, tracking systems, slot games, or other equipment. That should tell you something. For example, Galaxy is starting to turn things around by focusing on the upcharge for electronic systems:
Quote: GLXZ 2015 Annual Report

Our Enhanced Table Systems permit us the opportunity to significantly increase the amount of recurring revenue we receive from each table game placement. Accordingly, our goal is to concentrate on installing new game placements using one or more of our Enhanced Table Systems and to convert our existing Proprietary Table Game placements that currently do not incorporate our Enhanced Table Systems.



Assume the total initial investment is $10,000 to $50,000 (R&D, lawyer, marketing & promotion …)

Let’s consider initial years of patent life are non-incoming producing due to field trial period, and where lots of praying, and knock-on-doors are conducted, and for this reason, assume the useful life a patent is 12-15 years.

Subsequent expenses for trade shows and other marketing & promotions during the 12-15 years useful life of a patent is $100,000

Let’s say annual income is $240,000/year based on 40 installs.

The total net income for a successful game is about $2.7 to $3.5 million from an initial investment of $10,000 to $50,000. Not bad.

Two big things you didn't consider:
a) Ongoing costs to manage the process yourself are far greater than 100k/year, and
b) The useful life of a table game is very different than the useful life of a patent.
For example, it's incredibly unlikely that you get to 40 installs and maintain stasis there. Either you're out selling which means starting a company and all that entails (including hiring) -- and thereby trying to grow revenues -- or your initial games eventually fade away. Just like all of SHFL's also-rans. Think about how many times they've used their marketing muscle to get trials for games that last a few months and then get yanked. They get excited, the excitement fades, the game doesn't have legs, everyone moves on to the next one. I have first-hand experience with them on just such a product. That's no different than slots, btw.

The point is, it's one thing to get the game on the floor, it's entirely another to keep it there. So it really depends on your definition of success -- are we talking about games like CS or LIR? Those were smash hits making more than 7 figures per year at one point. If you're talking about 40 tables, a game that doesn't have generational legs (so it's shelf life is 5 years), and using a distributor with a 20% backend rather than starting a real distribution effort, now your numbers look like $500/table/month * 12 months * 40 tables * 20% * 5 years = $240,000. Still not a bad return on $50k, but you can do a lot better with a lot lower risk in a lot less time.

Point is, there are likely fewer than a dozen people who have made $240k on a single table game, let alone millions. It may be alluring to jump into the table game market because there are so few barriers to entry compared to EGMs, but it's exceedingly rare to come out ahead. It's not quite as unlikely as the lottery, but the lottery also doesn't take several years to play...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Paigowdan
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August 22nd, 2016 at 1:19:30 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Two big things you didn't consider:
a) Ongoing costs to manage the process yourself are far greater than 100k/year,


No self-installing designer is going to apply for licenses in every state for $250,000 plus; some designers (like Joe Centrone of Bust It! blackjack) picked three states for approval, spent typically $3,000 per state for the game's approval, and got 80 installs among them, and collected from there on out. Bought a house (paid off) and annuitized the rest, - and went into another new business after securing things and battening down the hatches. He wisely picked a few markets and maximized there very efficiently, then protected the income stream with diversification. We all know of a gazillion lottery winners who went broke a few years out, aside from so many sports figures. You get $200,000 or so, you consider yourself very lucky and protect the homestead.
Quote: ME

and...
b) The useful life of a table game is very different than the useful life of a patent.


Some games have VERY long runs if good: EZ Baccarat and Three Card poker (and both were late starters) are good examples. But for a new poker game or BJ side bet - a dime a dozen now or so it seems, hence with a lot of swap out.

Quote: ME

Point is, there are likely fewer than a dozen people who have made $240k on a single table game, let alone millions. It may be alluring to jump into the table game market because there are so few barriers to entry compared to EGMs, but it's exceedingly rare to come out ahead. It's not quite as unlikely as the lottery, but the lottery also doesn't take several years to play...


Yes, this is the new environment. Pricing is going to go through major downward changes, particularly now with casino operators getting their own non-distributor "self-proprietary" games approved to run for free after approval expenses. It's kind of like the "NET-10" phenomenon that happened in telecomm not too long ago: Net 10's $30-a-month phone, prepaid with no contracts, threw a wrench (or a major artillery shell) into $300 a month cell phone ownership, the pricing model prior to Net-10 and their ilk.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
RoyalBJ
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August 22nd, 2016 at 1:23:15 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist


a) Ongoing costs to manage the process yourself are far greater than 100k/year



How do spend $100k/year to "manage the process", entertaining the TGD around the world? Are you talking about managing 50-100 games like Galaxy or SHFL, or by independent? Please enlighten me.

If you have one game (which is how $400 K is computed), going to Raving's show every year, it's only less than $10k. Most games after being placed and survived for 6 months, 9-month tops, does not require any maintenance.
beachbumbabs
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August 22nd, 2016 at 2:16:58 PM permalink
Licensing in over 300 jurisdictions just in the US. Game has to be approved, you have to be licensed to distribute it, in each jurisdiction.

Patent process and protection of your IP. Once someone knows how to deal your game, why should they pay you? Or other designers and distributors see a good core; why not copy it into their game? Costs a lot to pursue your claim.

Those are the big 2, other than the expense of traveling, getting in to demo the game, paying to exhibit at trade shows, etc. It adds up.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
777
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August 22nd, 2016 at 2:44:21 PM permalink
Quote: beachbumbabs

Licensing in over 300 jurisdictions just in the US. Game has to be approved, you have to be licensed to distribute it, in each jurisdiction.

Patent process and protection of your IP. Once someone knows how to deal your game, why should they pay you? Or other designers and distributors see a good core; why not copy it into their game? Costs a lot to pursue your claim.

Those are the big 2, other than the expense of traveling, getting in to demo the game, paying to exhibit at trade shows, etc. It adds up.



There are only 50 States, but over 300 jurisdictions. My guess is there must be several hundred of jurisdictions regulating games in Indian reservations???
beachbumbabs
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August 22nd, 2016 at 3:25:53 PM permalink
Quote: 777

There are only 50 States, but over 300 jurisdictions. My guess is there must be several hundred of jurisdictions regulating games in Indian reservations???



Yes. Each tribe has a say, and an application process. Each casino or chain has one. Each state has one, usually overarching, but not always. It's tough to stay in compliance with all of them. SHFL has a small army of lawyers and staff who chase this stuff down.
If the House lost every hand, they wouldn't deal the game.
MathExtremist
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August 22nd, 2016 at 3:30:38 PM permalink
Quote: 777

There are only 50 States, but over 300 jurisdictions. My guess is there must be several hundred of jurisdictions regulating games in Indian reservations???

Absolutely. I hold a gaming license in Washington State -- but in order for me to sell to the Nisqually casino (Red Wind), I had to get approved through their own tribal gaming agency. It's a sovereign nation, after all. State gaming agencies have no authority except what is compacted.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
RoyalBJ
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August 22nd, 2016 at 3:36:21 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

Absolutely. I hold a gaming license in Washington State -- but in order for me to sell to the Nisqually casino (Red Wind), I had to get approved through their own tribal gaming agency. It's a sovereign nation, after all. State gaming agencies have no authority except what is compacted.

gaming license in Washington State - $1000 and Nisqually casino (Red Wind) - $150
Paradigm
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August 22nd, 2016 at 3:40:27 PM permalink
And then you need to register to do business with the actual State of Washington besides get licensed with the WA State Gambling Commission. Every step of the way has an annual fee and paperwork.
MathExtremist
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August 22nd, 2016 at 3:56:24 PM permalink
Quote: RoyalBJ

How do spend $100k/year to "manage the process", entertaining the TGD around the world? Are you talking about managing 50-100 games like Galaxy or SHFL, or by independent? Please enlighten me.

Well, how successful do you want to be? It's not like you get to stop selling or managing your customers. Here's a question -- do you think you can be a more efficient table game distributor than Galaxy? Galaxy made $10.9M last year and spent $7.1M on SG&A. They have 17 people. Obviously not all of them are selling, but if you just divide you get 418k/person in SG&A to 641k in revenue for a net of 223k/person, or just about 53% of their costs. Their real net was much smaller because I didn't take into account all the other costs. See their report here:
http://ir.galaxygaming.com/annual-reports/content/0001564590-16-015650/glxz-10k_20151231.htm?TB_iframe=true&height=auto&width=auto&preload=false

Point is, they're spending over 4x that 100k figure (per capita) in order to make what they make. Now, a big part of that is salary, but not all of it. Some is trade shows, some is regulatory, some is plane tickets and motel rooms, etc. So if your return is 53% like Galaxy's, you'd spend 100k, you make 153k and net 53k. Let's say 25% of that 100k was actual costs, the rest was what you pay yourself in salary. That means you earn 75k and your company has 53k in the bank. Or maybe you just pocket it all and run with no bank account. If you're successful, then, you can earn 128k/year busting your butt. That's okay but not great for an entrepreneur, and the risk of failure is enormous. There are a lot of 128k/year jobs where you have zero risk and, as a bonus, don't have to travel and stay in motel rooms. Running a business is hard work. I'd know, I've been doing it for 15 years.

Edit: the real point is that you don't just show up with a magic new card game, snap your fingers, and have a zero-cost business that runs itself and sends you checks every month. Either you run a business -- and accept all the cost, time, and hassle that involves -- or you do a distribution deal with someone who already does.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Zcore13
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August 22nd, 2016 at 4:52:32 PM permalink
I would call it a VERY, VERY rare situation that a new game can self distribute Nationally. My advice, if asked, would be to focus on your home State if it is affordable to get licensed in it. If not, the closest State that is. Get installs and then look to hook up with one of the big boys.

There was a short time where AGS was paying ridiculous money for a game. I would guess that time has passed since they now have a small (but poor) catalog.

ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
IndyJeffrey
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August 25th, 2016 at 5:27:17 PM permalink
I like the game and have played it a number of times. It is fun. Though I am concerned it takes too many 'turns' to get a result. Have you consider that?
SM777
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August 25th, 2016 at 9:26:46 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13

I would call it a VERY, VERY rare situation that a new game can self distribute Nationally. My advice, if asked, would be to focus on your home State if it is affordable to get licensed in it. If not, the closest State that is. Get installs and then look to hook up with one of the big boys.

There was a short time where AGS was paying ridiculous money for a game. I would guess that time has passed since they now have a small (but poor) catalog.

ZCore13



They must've realized it was unsustainable. Can't imagine the table games business there will last very long. A couple years at most, maybe less than Galaxy. :)
VonVester
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August 25th, 2016 at 9:37:51 PM permalink
Quote: IndyJeffrey

I like the game and have played it a number of times. It is fun. Though I am concerned it takes too many 'turns' to get a result. Have you consider that?



IndyJeffrey, I am assuming here that you are talking about my game, 'Casino Derby', and that you played the Scratch version linked earlier in this thread. Is this the case?

If indeed you are referring to my game on Scratch, thank you for the compliment and I am happy that you liked it and had fun. I also thank you for pointing out the game speed issue, one that I have spent some time thinking about myself.

The average number of rolls for each race is about 3.8 which includes tie rolls. This results in a total time, from bet placement to payout, of about 1.5 minutes, or about the time for one Roulette spin. GLI provided me with math statistics for giving players a double pay on wins if the race exceeded 6 rolls.

The GLI math report that I have now is for a finish line between 13 and 14. However, GLI has this game's simulation stored and can, for a price, easily do the math for finish lines moved closer, such as between 12 and 13 to shorten the number of rolls per race. I assure you that the table game moves quicker than my Scratch game. I slowed the horse movement in the Scratch game to allow players to more easily follow the action and know what is going on within the game, math wise.
MathExtremist
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August 26th, 2016 at 9:10:13 AM permalink
Quote: SM777

They must've realized it was unsustainable. Can't imagine the table games business there will last very long. A couple years at most, maybe less than Galaxy. :)

But why do you bring in a guy like John Hemberger if you're not committed to table games? If you're not sure whether you really want to distribute table games, wouldn't it be safer to hire part-time consultant instead? That's exactly what another competing table game company is doing, after all...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
SM777
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August 26th, 2016 at 11:22:34 AM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

But why do you bring in a guy like John Hemberger if you're not committed to table games? If you're not sure whether you really want to distribute table games, wouldn't it be safer to hire part-time consultant instead? That's exactly what another competing table game company is doing, after all...



I think it will take them another year or two more to throw in the towel unless something changes. As noted, the amounts paid for double ball roulette, Buster BJ, and others without profiting on them will doom them in the long run. How long can they allow the tables to hemorrhage money?
Paradigm
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August 26th, 2016 at 12:14:02 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

I think it will take them another year or two more to throw in the towel unless something changes. As noted, the amounts paid for double ball roulette, Buster BJ, and others without profiting on them will doom them in the long run. How long can they allow the tables to hemorrhage money?


Of the purchases...Buster BJ appears to have been the best as the were able to significantly grow table count, don't know the ROI numbers there but they have to be better than the aforementioned Double Ball Roulette and these others:

1) War BJ
2) High Card Flush stub equity purchase cost + litigation cost and then end up with zero ownership of HCF at settlement. I guess the rich guy doesn't always win in court.

Bonus Spin BJ is a mystery to me as I just can't believe that players will continue to make a side bet that only provides any "juice" when they hit a BJ every 21+ hands (I don't consider getting even money on an Ace to be an exciting outcome to a side bet). But I do see the Count Kustom and Non-Branded installs in more places than I would have thought, so what do I know?

LaDuca's portfolio has some installs for them: In Bet, Criss Cross, & Double Draw (I think Ron is a smart developer), but those games can't float the rest of the boat that Buster and Bonus Spin aren't holding up.

I think AGS has a lot riding on the success of Chase The Flush...it is there best attempt yet at creating a premium game that can move the needle.

I don't consider AGS' game library a toss up compared to Galaxy's...AGS' library is a clear #3 or maybe #4 to DEQ's table game success with EZ Bacc/EZ PGP.
Zcore13
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August 26th, 2016 at 12:14:53 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

I think it will take them another year or two more to throw in the towel unless something changes. As noted, the amounts paid for double ball roulette, Buster BJ, and others without profiting on them will doom them in the long run. How long can they allow the tables to hemorrhage money?



There's no doubt a new company to the market has to spend money. They just did a good amount of it frivolously.

6 figures for War Blackjack and that's not including marketing materials, hundreds of thousands in the theft of High Card Flush litigation, plus I'm sure turning over income from it, a collection of mostly un-leasable games plus the salaries for an over-staffed company when they were just starting out.

But, they've got VERY deep pockets from the slot side, so who knows how long they can hang on...


ZCore13
I am an employee of a Casino. Former Table Games Director,, current Pit Supervisor. All the personal opinions I post are my own and do not represent the opinions of the Casino or Tribe that I work for.
RoyalBJ
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August 26th, 2016 at 12:50:56 PM permalink
AGS has no authorized capital to acquire games that are not already generating revenues or generating only little revenue. Meanwhile, games generating revenue are expensive to buy. MBA course 101, go figure.
MathExtremist
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August 26th, 2016 at 3:53:26 PM permalink
Quote: RoyalBJ

AGS has no authorized capital to acquire games that are not already generating revenues or generating only little revenue. Meanwhile, games generating revenue are expensive to buy. MBA course 101, go figure.

For what it's worth, that's also true regarding electronic games or other content. They're not interested in assuming the risk of innovation, they're interested in marketing proven products. Nothing wrong with that, it's just a business choice. One that, frankly, most big companies are making. You'll need to leave it to the small hungry ones to innovate. It's the "Innovator's Dilemma" in a nutshell.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
SM777
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August 29th, 2016 at 5:50:49 PM permalink
Quote: Zcore13



And I doubt very seriously anything will look different by the end of 2016.


ZCore13



I think you can chop a little bit of time off this estimate.
SM777
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August 29th, 2016 at 5:53:21 PM permalink
Quote: RoyalBJ

AGS has no authorized capital to acquire games that are not already generating revenues or generating only little revenue. Meanwhile, games generating revenue are expensive to buy. MBA course 101, go figure.



AGS is looking for a Director Of Table Games. They're still trucking foward!
Paigowdan
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August 29th, 2016 at 5:54:53 PM permalink
SM777, - they have John Hemberger and Ofir V, neither a slouch.......
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
SM777
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August 29th, 2016 at 5:56:44 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

SM777, - they have John Hemberger and Ofir V, neither a slouch.......



I know. Was just commenting on their newly posted position. Looking for someone under John.
Paigowdan
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:00:40 PM permalink
What about you, Sir?
You are quite knowledgeable on gaming, and are probably a natural on this, in the sense that a knowledgeable amateur is often the best and freshest professional when called upon.

From what I've seen of you, Sir, - you actually might be a good fir for them. Or Paradigm or ME - also here at this forum.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
SM777
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:08:55 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

What about you, Sir?
You are quite knowledgeable on gaming, and are probably a natural on this, in the sense that a knowledgeable amateur is often the best and freshest professional when called upon.

From what I've seen of you, Sir, - you actually might be a good fir for them. Or Paradigm or ME - also here at this forum.



I appreciate that, but I don't think it's a fit for me. Not really convinced their strategy on tables is a good one.
MathExtremist
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:16:21 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

What about you, Sir?
You are quite knowledgeable on gaming, and are probably a natural on this, in the sense that a knowledgeable amateur is often the best and freshest professional when called upon.

From what I've seen of you, Sir, - you actually might be a good fir for them. Or Paradigm or ME - also here at this forum.

I'm betting that SM777 is already employed by an AGS competitor, if not in table games than in some other fashion.

As for me, I'd be a great fit, except (a) I'm not moving back to Vegas, (b) I don't have full time available right now, and (c) I'm hunting bigger fish than what exist in the table games market anyway. (I'm developing next-generation EGM content.) Now, if AGS wants to acquire my firm (and the IP it controls) to go after that lucrative market, that's a different story, but I don't think that's on their radar right now. But that begs the question, if they're not willing to invest in EGM content R&D (and through a 3rd-party, I've been told as much), why are they hiring at the director level for table games? The upside is much, much smaller.

Or maybe that title is a misnomer -- the job posting only wants 2 years' experience past college.
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Paigowdan
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:18:38 PM permalink
Perhaps so. Let's see how this shakes out over time.
For all we know, there might be some big industry news this very week.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
SM777
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:19:15 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

Perhaps so. Let's see how this shakes out over time.
For all we know, there might be some big industry news this very week.



When you say perhaps, you mean there is........ :)
MathExtremist
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:19:48 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

I appreciate that, but I don't think it's a fit for me. Not really convinced their strategy on tables is a good one.

At the risk of giving AGS some free consulting, what would you do differently if John took a vacation for a month and you stepped in to fill his shoes? And to explore a counterfactual, what would you have done differently if David Lopez had hired you two years ago instead of John?
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
Paigowdan
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:22:45 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

When you say perhaps, you mean there is........ :)



I don't know, that's why I said perhaps.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
SM777
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:22:56 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

At the risk of giving AGS some free consulting, what would you do differently if John took a vacation for a month and you stepped in to fill his shoes? And to explore a counterfactual, what would you have done differently if David Lopez had hired you two years ago instead of John?



I think it was touched on in here, that the exorbitant amount they spent to acquire a few games really set them back. They'll never get anything back from Double Ball Roulette, it will take 50 years to get back what they spent on Double Draw, and the patent will expire on Buster BJ before they can get half of their money back.

That money should've been invested in people, and as you just expressed electronic tables development, or even progressive equipment. Instead they're debuting a shuffler at G2E. It just doesn't make sense.
SM777
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:24:45 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

I think it was touched on in here, that the exorbitant amount they spent to acquire a few games really set them back. They'll never get anything back from Double Ball Roulette, it will take 50 years to get back what they spent on Double Draw, and the patent will expire on Buster BJ before they can get half of their money back.

That money should've been invested in people, and as you just expressed electronic tables development, or even progressive equipment. Instead they're debuting a shuffler at G2E. It just doesn't make sense.



I am sure they've acquired other games as well early on that are collecting dust.
SM777
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:27:00 PM permalink
Quote: MathExtremist

I'm betting that SM777 is already employed by an AGS competitor, if not in table games than in some other fashion.

As for me, I'd be a great fit, except (a) I'm not moving back to Vegas, (b) I don't have full time available right now, and (c) I'm hunting bigger fish than what exist in the table games market anyway. (I'm developing next-generation EGM content.) Now, if AGS wants to acquire my firm (and the IP it controls) to go after that lucrative market, that's a different story, but I don't think that's on their radar right now. But that begs the question, if they're not willing to invest in EGM content R&D (and through a 3rd-party, I've been told as much), why are they hiring at the director level for table games? The upside is much, much smaller.

Or maybe that title is a misnomer -- the job posting only wants 2 years' experience past college.



Does anyone have a bartop unit for a table game with a dealer? They've got all these betting terminals sitting on slot floors. Create one that sits on the bartop where I can play "live" games.
Paigowdan
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:27:00 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

I am sure they've acquired other games as well early on that are collecting dust.



For all we know, they may have collected a game or two that may break out. Double Ball roulette was a bad bet, but a good bet will help.
As you know, it is a game of numbers.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
SM777
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:30:52 PM permalink
We shall see. Looks like Chase The Flush got some love on here. Is that an internal game of theirs?
Paigowdan
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:46:27 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

We shall see. Looks like Chase The Flush got some love on here. Is that an internal game of theirs?


Yes, it is internal to AGS as far as I know, and I was quite impressed with it. I played it for quite a while at the Luxor.

The Love is deserved - but with cautions:

I think it is a "tough" and "pro" advancement onto HCF that may or may not take, - much in the same way the very fine UTH is an advancement in Hold 'em poker games - which was also a big gamble at the time that turned out very well. (As I said in my own book on Game Design, "Good for Roger Snow and his crew on this excellent product.") Perhaps the same might be said for Dave Lopez and AGS if and when this game turns out well for them.

Again, sir, UTH is among the BEST casinos games, if not the finest example of a casino strategy game, IMO.

The strategy for Chase The Flush is both simple and elegant, - and tricky. They key is to NOT let players hang themselves against your game, but to help them to hook them:
1. Simply to raise 3x on two suited to a Queen with a face card kicker or better, or three of a suit. You can also raise on three faces or Aces, as odds on you get top three in a three-card suit.

2. then raise 2x when having the stronger side to a Qxx suited on the flop or better.

3. Call 1x when holding a jack or better to a three-suit, or two to a three-suit, else fold.

SM777, you yourself have got to know that when you help your players, THEN your help your own game succeed.
AGS needs to know that when you put strategy help on rack cards, you also help your players help game.
Same for the Shuffle Master Division of Scientific Games.

If I design a strategy-based casino game, I'll also throw a good and meaty strategy bone on the rack - to help the players who are supporting my game.

SM777, what's your take on this? Will providing a basic strategy on the rack card help AGS on their Chase the Flush game, - which is very sharp if players go into it a are a bit knowledgeable, so they do well and adopt the game?
Last edited by: Paigowdan on Aug 29, 2016
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
SM777
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:50:26 PM permalink
I think in theory, that sounds like a good idea. But I'd need to know if tough games like Miss Stud and UTH have strategy on them already? Those are difficult games to follow strategy.
Paradigm
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August 29th, 2016 at 6:58:18 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

I know. Was just commenting on their newly posted position. Looking for someone under John.


What is Ofir's role at AGS? I thought he was under John in some capacity.
SM777
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August 29th, 2016 at 7:02:02 PM permalink
I would think so as well, but really not sure.
Lucky
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August 29th, 2016 at 7:12:06 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

What about you, Sir?


Same question back to you. Seems like you might fit the bill ... and have experience in performing a similar role at a competing firm.
"Success consists of going from failure to failure without loss of enthusiasm." -- Winston Churchill
Paigowdan
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August 29th, 2016 at 7:16:49 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

I think in theory, that sounds like a good idea. But I'd need to know if tough games like Miss Stud and UTH have strategy on them already? Those are difficult games to follow strategy.


The two are very different games in terms of "player favorability," really.

The problem with MS is that it's strategy cannot be condensed into a reasonable "cheat sheet" or "poker eye strategy" for the player - the player too often hangs himself, but on UTH, the player "gets it."

While UTH can be subliminally condensed into "good memory play" by the average casino gambler- hence UTH's continuing and long lasting success in the field, MS is really fading away. UTH is just a WAY better game. Chase the Flush may have some of those good qualities, I feel: the ability to raise when in a strong position, and with a little strategy, the ability to recognize when in those strong positions. THIS is why I felt a rack card strategy should have been included with Chase the Flush, also a very fine game - give the player a rope to grab onto the game.

UTH, as tough as a game it is, is very sensible to the poker player, and it fully deserves its fine success.

MS and LIR are just too rough in terms of strategy and variance.

I think the sales and the install base bear this out now. Go UTH and CTF.
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
Paradigm
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August 29th, 2016 at 7:22:21 PM permalink
Quote: SM777

Does anyone have a bartop unit for a table game with a dealer? They've got all these betting terminals sitting on slot floors. Create one that sits on the bartop where I can play "live" games.


Is this like a stadium seating type concept, where you can join in on the next game resolution for games like Bacc, Roulette, & Sic Bo. All these betting terminals are currently limited to games that require no mid hand player decision points or else you are stuck waiting for player decisions from all terminals.

I suppose you could install a default decision based on inaction after a specific time. For example in UTH, inaction after 5 secs would result in a check on the first two raise opportunities followed by a fold at the last decision point.

This set up would certainly reduce labor costs for a game like UTH, but I would hate to see the property specific volatility that such a set up my create when the player hand deals a Royal Flush and you have 78 connected players on that hand each winning the 500-1 on the Blind Bet.

I may not be thinking big enough here...I do that at times ;-)...perhaps there is a new type of next generation EGM game content that expands what can entertain under this type of set up.
Hunterhill
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August 29th, 2016 at 7:23:30 PM permalink
I think the strategy for Ms isn't the reason it's fading away,It's the variance.
When people try it for the first time and lose 10 hands in a row or more,good luck getting them to try it again.
The mountain is tall but grass grows on top of the mountain.
Paigowdan
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August 29th, 2016 at 7:23:40 PM permalink
Quote: Lucky

Same question back to you. Seems like you might fit the bill ... and have experience in performing a similar role at a competing firm.



You know Harry, I would indeed, but I have found - in my old age - this great and legitimate industry to be a bit treacherous, litigious, and political at times. Psychically, I am walking with a cane, if only for self-defense here and there, in a Willy Stargell sense, here and there. This isn't an easy business. And you know this Harry, man of a thousand pairs of worn-out shoes.

I now own a day spa in Las Vegas with my lovely wife of many years, and I have published a book on game design, - all to diversify a bit.

Will I ever leave this business? Unlikely. But to have other pokers in the fire just for perspective and diversification, - yes indeed.

I feel like Al Pacino (and I'm sure SM777 does also), the scene from Godfather #42 or something - "JUST when I thought I was out.....It PULLS me back in!!! MICHAEL!! MICHAEL!!...[sign of the Cross while saying the Rosary].....
Beware of all enterprises that require new clothes - Henry David Thoreau. Like Dealers' uniforms - Dan.
MathExtremist
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August 29th, 2016 at 7:34:31 PM permalink
Quote: Paigowdan

I have found - in my old age - this great and legitimate industry to be a bit treacherous, litigious, and political at times.

You know how sometimes you read too quickly and jumble words together? I saw "treacherous" and "litigious" together and read "lecherous."

And now you own a day spa?

Nahhh...
"In my own case, when it seemed to me after a long illness that death was close at hand, I found no little solace in playing constantly at dice." -- Girolamo Cardano, 1563
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