Bad Play in Ultimate Texas Hold'em

Does anyone know how much bad play impacts the house advantage in Ultimate Texas Hold'em? A player who only bets 1X when he should be betting 4X obviously takes a hit. But just how bad is it on a scale of Rounding Error to Bankroll Apocalypse (or in actual percentages if you have it handy)? I know it's a more complicated game strategically but is it truly punishing? Misplaying a straight or flush draw? Is it slightly irresponsible or is is the-Joker-lighting-a-warehouse-of-$100-bills-on-fire crazy?

I imagine there must be a way to get a rough average of the bad play pain by melding the house advantage and recorded hold numbers against other similar games with easier math. I imagine. I don't know.

Just wondering.

Bankroll Apocalypse. 9.9% edge if all you do is bet 3x instead of 4x and do everything else perfectly:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/21993-new-table-game-player-power-poker/3/#post457000

(I haven't done any other analysis on it though).

I would put that number within the realm of being Apocalyptic. But I'm not sure how much I trust it. In that post there wasn't documentation that I could find. It very well could be possible but it's also conceivable to me that that could be a hearsay number "oh, I don't know, I hear it's almost 10% edge if you screw up in that game up".

Maybe it is that punishing.
But that would impress me.

Go to the Wizard's page, copy his stats into a spreadsheet, and adjust all the 4x bet figures to reflect a bet of 3 instead. Then add up the new EV.

Quote: BukWildSuperFly

I would put that number within the realm of being Apocalyptic. But I'm not sure how much I trust it. In that post there wasn't documentation that I could find. It very well could be possible but it's also conceivable to me that that could be a hearsay number "oh, I don't know, I hear it's almost 10% edge if you screw up in that game up".

Maybe it is that punishing.
But that would impress me.

FWIW, MathExtremist is a professional designer and developer with a long list of installs. He would not have given you a number (or posted one in May) if it wasn't accurate. Re: your comment about trusting the number. Me, I'd give you a guess with a disclaimer. Him, never.

First of all his user name could be MathIsDumbItMakeMyHeadHurt and I would still take his guess more seriously than my own. I only questioned his figure because I thought he was quoting someone else's undocumented post. I didn't realize until now that he was quoting his own post. Thank you both for pointing me in the right direction. It just seems like an impressive leap for what would not seem to be an apocalyptic mistake.

I'm still curious if a melding of the recorded hold and house edge numbers would produce an accurate estimate of what the edge might be under average real life play.

Quote: MathExtremist

Bankroll Apocalypse. 9.9% edge if all you do is bet 3x instead of 4x and do everything else perfectly:

https://wizardofvegas.com/forum/gambling/tables/21993-new-table-game-player-power-poker/3/#post457000

(I haven't done any other analysis on it though).

If you check those 4x hands and play everything perfectly its 12.565%. I break it down in this post

Wow...
Thanks for pointing out that thread.

Why aren't casinos clamoring for this game in their pits? From what I can tell, the hold-em style lures them in very effectively, and the players that know what they are doing make for a tiny [and badgered] minority.

Mohegan Sun [CT] apparently does not have the game.

Quote: odiousgambit

Why aren't casinos clamoring for this game in their pits? From what I can tell, the hold-em style lures them in very effectively, and the players that know what they are doing make for a tiny [and badgered] minority.

Mohegan Sun [CT] apparently does not have the game.

They are. Almost every large casino has this game. And some small ones too. But it is very expensive to lease from BALLY.