Bankroll needed for $25 denom VP?

best vp at a caesars casino near me is single line $5/10/25 9/7 DB (99.1%).

even at $5 denom, any quads or better will be a w2-g tax form.
so I figured why not go for $25 denom.

DiaD= $50k coin-in = 400 hands at $125 a pull
theo = .9% x 50k = $450 loss

waiting for a good multiplier promo offer.
current one is equivalent of +1% which makes this game barely +EV.
last one I estimated was at +1.4% but missed it. :(

Variance of DB= 28.5
Standard deviation (Std) = Sqrt(28.5) = 5.34

OriginalSD = Std * AvgBet = 5.34 * 125 = 667.5

SD(x hands) = Sqrt(x) * OriginalSD
SD(400 hands) = Sqrt(400) * 667.5 = 13350

So with 68% confidence, one would expect to lose -$450 +/- $13.4k?!?!
so a 32% risk of ruin if I only bought $14k to play?!?!

is my math right?

Welcome to $125/pull DB variance =D.

I think that's right... Pretend you were doing regular DIAD with $1 machine...

OriginalSD = 5.34*5 = 26.7

EV = (10,000*5)*(-.009) = -$450
SD(10,000 hands) = Sqrt(10,000) * 26.7 = 2670

Thus, you could expect to lose $450 +/- $2,670... at the $1 level with a max coin of $5 per pull. You're looking at $25 level, with max $125 per pull... Yeah, I'd expect that to jump up the old SD a bit =P.

*Music Melody* Hello variance my old friend.... I've come to dance with you again.

You might run good. Had a lady sit next to me yesterday and pop in $20 in a 25¢ 8/5 DDB and proceeded to hit a 250 quad hit, then aces, then 3'sWAK, then AWAK, then aces a third time. She had it up to over $1100 and left when it got down to $1000.

$125 aught to be good. I'm kidding, but that's all I think is worth playing until I can forget where I put $100,000 and not care.